Australia December 2013

Easy win for Nissan in Australia

Baby Step Edition

Like in the UK and other countries, the complete Australian sales data is only available every Quarter of the Year,  so now i can post the full year EV sales there.

With 304 sales in 2013, plug in sales increased 17% regarding '12, which lead the EV share to increase 0,013% to 0,036%. It's a marginal growth compared with other markets, but the aussie EV market is still in its infancy.

Proof of that is that the Nissan Leaf was #1 with 188 units sold, more than doubling what it had sold during the 12 months of 2012, thanks to lower prices (Now under 40.000$) and Nissan's recent will to sell them. 

In second was the Holden Volt with 101 units sold, failing to reach the Leaf's top spot, but selling 21 more cars than last year.

Finally, in third and now withdrawn from the market, the Mitsu I-Miev closes the podium with 15 units.

Regarding '14, i think sales will almost double, the Leaf will climb to some 300 sales/year, the Volt might see a small sales decrease, which will be compensated by sales from two new players coming this year, the Tesla Model S and the BMW i3, the first has what it takes to be successful here and the second has been receiving positive reviews from the demanding Australian journalists, so i'm counting with 100 sales for each.

Australia	2013	2012
Nissan Leaf	188	78
Holden Volt	101	80
Mitsubishi I-Miev e)	15	95
TOTAL	304	253

e) - Estimate

Sources: www.bestsellingcarsblog.com

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Australia 3Q 2013

Because it got there first (2010), the Mitsu I-Miev is still the most common EV in Australia

Growing Trend Edition

The third quarter australian sales data became available and there are two numbers that translate accurately the status of electric cars there: 0,026% and 117%.

The first number is the aussie EV share, with just 237 sales this year, plug-ins are a very small portion of a market worth a million units.

The second refers to their growth rate regarding a year ago, in isolation it's a healthy sign for electric cars future here, but then again, high growth rates with such a small base are not that meaningful....

Modelswise, the Nissan Leaf continues at #1 with 118 units sold, doubling sales from a year ago. 

The Holden Volt is second with 89 units sold, failing to reach the Leaf's top spot, improving share to 40%.

Finally, in third, the Mitsubishi I-Miev closes the podium without much perspectives of improvement.

Australia	3Q '13	3Q'12
Nissan Leaf	118	64
Holden Volt	89	N/A
Mitsubishi I-Miev e)	30	45
TOTAL	237	109

e) - Estimate

Sources: www.bestsellingcarsblog.com

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Australia & New Zealand June 2013

The not-that-practical-trunk of the 2013 Nissan Leaf

Nothing New Edition

Like in the UK and other countries, the complete australian sales data is only available in every Quarter of the Year, i can now post half year EV sales from kangarooland.

With 96 sales in the second quarter of the year, plug in sales increased 23% regarding the first quarter, which lead the EV share to increase 0,01% to 0,03%. The growth signs exist, especially considering that in the first six months of 2012 there were only 12 electric cars sold...

The Nissan Leaf is at #1 with 77 units sold, just one unit less than it had sold during the 12 months of 2012. 

In second comes the Holden Volt with 67 units sold, failing to reach the Leaf's top spot, but selling 3 more units (30) than in the first quarter and increasing the plug-in hybrid share from 32% in the end of 2012 to 39% in the end of H1 of '13.

Finally, in third and lagging behind the other two, the Mitsu I-Miev closes the podium.

Australia	H1 '13	H1'12
Nissan Leaf	77	10
Holden Volt	67	N/A
Mitsubishi I-Miev e)	30	2
TOTAL	174	12

e) - Estimate

Sources: www.bestsellingcarsblog.com


Adding to the Australian ranking, i'm posting, as curiosity, the neighboring New Zealand plug-in car ranking.

Despite efforts from manufacturers, the kiwi EV market has still low numbers and the 0,02% EV share reflects that. 

Looking at the models ranking, the Mitsubishi I-Miev is back at #1 (It held that spot in 2010 and '11), meanwhile the 2012 leader, the Nissan Leaf, has still to register its first unit this year. 

Thanks to David Crawford (MIA) for NZ data!

New Zealand	H1 '13	H1'12
Mitsubishi I-Miev	6	5
Holden Volt	2	N/A
Nissan Leaf	0	4
TOTAL	8	9

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Australia March 2013

2013 Chevrolet Holden Volt

Like in the UK and other countries, the complete australian sales data is only available in every Quarter of the Year, so i can now post EV sales from down under.

With just 78 sales in a market of 300.000, plug in sales represent a marginal share (0,03%) and still have a long way to go, but the truth is that in 2012 Q1, EV sales counted just 3 units...

The Nissan Leaf is going strong at #1 with 36 units and looking to finally get the best seller crown away from the Mitsubishi I-Miev, holder of that trophy since 2010.

In second comes the Holden Volt, failing to fulfill the initial promises (In the last two months of 2012 it sold 80 units), selling just 27 cars in three months.

Finally in third, the I-Miev, with just 15 cars sold, is starting to fall behind, but we are only at the end of the first quarter and the numbers are still small, so it will have lots of opportunities to catch their opponents until the end of the year.

Pl	Australia	YTD '13	YTD'12
1	Nissan Leaf	36	0
2	Holden Volt	27	N/A
3	Mitsubishi I-Miev	15	3
	TOTAL	78	3

Data: Manufacturers, BSCB

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My 2013 EV Markets Preview

After making my predictions over the general trends in the EV market and the models that could be gamechangers, and updating it with the latest Roewe and Cadillac offerings, now it's time to preview the behavior of the major markets and which countries could be the surprises of the year:

USA - There's a lot going on here, if we count the same level of sales from the usual suspects (Volt, Prius, Leaf...) at 55K, i'm predicting some extra 15K from the C-Max, 6K from the Fusion and 12K from Tesla. Add that to 3K from other new launches (Accord, Cadillac ELR...) and we easily have more than 90.000 sales in 2013, so i'm counting the US EV market to reach some 90 to 110K units;

Japan - Probably reaching some 23.000 units in 2012, up from 18K in the year before, 2013 will see the arrival of the Mitsubishi Outlander Plug-In Hybrid that might add some 6K sales to a faily stable market, although the I-Miev should struggle to keep sales at their '12 level. So, adding 6 to the current 23K, we have  around 29.000 units for the japanese EV market;

France - The sales level of the french market will depend on the impact of the Renault Zoe and how much will it steal from the current players in the market. So, if assuming that the rest of the market stays stable at 12K and the Zoe collects between 2K to 4K units sold, we have a moderate growth to 14-16.000 EV's;  

Germany - Another market where things could get interesting, although sales will only takeoff in the 4Q after the arrival of the german offerings. Until then sales will grow modestly, with the Zoe animating the market. At some expected 7K sales from foreign brands and adding 2.5K units from the german newcomers (BMW i3, VW e-Up! or Mercedes B-class ED), we'll be looking at around 10.000 units, a good prologue year before the real departure of the german EV market in 2014;

Netherlands - One of the markets where EV's are most successful and where the Opel Ampera is climbing the overall ranking, it's to expect that both the Ampera and the Prius Plug-In will keep on growing their sales, adding 1.000 units each, just like the Tesla Model S, an expected hit here. If the other models on the market also grow another 1.000 cars, we are looking at 9.000 sales, a good result that could keep this market on the forefront of the Plug-In Evolution.

Norway - With a great 3% of the general market, this scandinavian country is considered the epicenter of the electric revolution, thanks in big part to the success of the Nissan Leaf, now a usual name in the best selling rankings. And this year, another pure electric is expected to make a splash here, Norway is just behind the US in orders of Tesla's Model S, so expect it to go from 1.500 to 3.000 cars sold here. Add these to another 1.000 from the successful Prius Plug-In and we have between 7 to 8.500 sales. If the top limit is reached, we'll be talking about a 6% EV share! 

As possible surprises this year, China certainly promises to be one of them, it ended 2012 beating  the alltime record at 848 units and this year it is expected to be flooded with new models (Venucia e30, Springo, BYD Qin...), so it won't be difficult to see the chinese market EV jump from 3.000 to 10.000 sales. Australia is another market expected to grow exponentially thanks to the Holden Volt introduction, sales should grow from a measly 253 sold last year to some 2.000 units, if not more.

All in all, the world EV market will likely grow to some 200.000 units this year, almost doubling sales from the year before. And you the viewers, what do you think?

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Australia Full Year 2012

Despite a tremendous growth in percentage points (almost 500%), with just 253 car sales in 2012, the Australian EV market is still small, especially if you look at the larger picture, after all this is a 1 million units market, here electrics are just 0,023% of the global market.

But not all are bad news, because with little more than a month in the market, the Holden Volt passed the Nissan Leaf  and was just 15 units behind the leader Mitsubishi I-Miev, will this mean that the Volt will dominate the australian market like it does in Canada?

Only time will tell, but it looks that way, Plug-In Hybrids are increasing sales EV everywhere and if that happens in Australia,  it's possible that this year the aussie market reaches the thousands milestone.

Australia	2012	%
Mitsubishi I-Miev	95	38
Holden Volt	80	32
Nissan Leaf	78	31
TOTAL	253	100

Sources: www.carsales.com.au; Australia's VFacts

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Other Markets November 2012

This post highlights some curious facts about other EV markets:

- This year it has been sold more EV's (106.000) than in all previous years together (80.000);

- The markets with smaller or negative growth rates are Denmark (+29%), Japan (+4%) and Portugal (-54%). The portuguese negative growth is justified by the end of the 5.000€ government incentive given to EV's;

- Despite government interest and incentives in this kind of cars, EV's represent just 0,018% of the auto market in China, only in Australia there's a lower market share (0,008%) for electric cars;

- The UK market is fragmented, with the top three makers separated by only 23 units (Renault - 563 units, Nissan - 547, Vauxhall - 540);

- Chevrolet Volt has a whopping 73% share of all electric cars in Canada, with 1.168 units;

- Israel, Hong Kong and Estonia EV market are represented by only one model, respectably the Renault Fluence ZE (Included in the Better Place deal), Nissan Leaf and the Mitsubishi I-Miev (Bought by the Estonian government);

- The Volt family has the top spot in three countries (USA, Netherlands, Canada);

-  Renault's Twizy quadricycle is #1 in six countries (Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Portugal), just like the LCV Kangoo ZE in its home market (France) and the Fluence ZE in Denmark and Ireland;

- The Nissan Leaf is number one in three markets (Norway, Australia, Finland);

- The BYD E6 insures a number one spot in its home market (China);

- Finally, the Prius Plug-In wins at home (Japan) and in Sweden;

- Splitting sales by regional areas, GM dominates the Americas with almost half of the market, just like Toyota does in Asia and Europe is Renault's turf, with a 42% market share, thanks mostly to the Twizy, the best selling vehicle there, where one in four electric vehicles is a Twizy. 

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