Automotive Groups December 2016

Regarding 2015, there were some major changes, BYD jumped ahead of the Renault-Nissan Alliance (Haven't included Mitsubishi yet, as the Japanese brand was only included in October), and has set an ambitious goal of 200.000 units in 2017, while Tesla climbed to Third at the expense of the Volkswagen Group and hopes to reach BYD-level of deliveries this year.

But the 2017 Best Selling OEM title will be a three horse race, as a Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance can also reach 200.000 units with relative ease, it's just a matter of producing the Renault Zoe at full speed, update the Nissan Leaf with a 40 kWh battery soon and actively sell the Mitsu Outlander PHEV.

Volkswagen's slow growth (Up only 6% YoY) has made it lose the Third spot and it wasn't surpassed by an ambitious (100.000 units goal for 2017!) BMW Group by just 300 units, so VW better shape up in 2017 and increase sales significantly, or else they will be on the uncomfortable role of also-rans, 2020 and its I.D. disruptive model is still some years away and a lot can/will change until then. 

BAIC is rising from the shadow of BYD and despite only selling half of the Chinese poster-child, it is growing significantly (The EC180 looks like a winner), so it wouldn't be surprising to see it reach 80.000 sales this year, same as the Geely Group, which has seen Volvo grow 50% and most importantly, Geely land with 17.000 units. Two OEMs to follow closely in 2017.

The same can be said about General Motors, growing 54% YoY in 2016 and that's without using the ace up its sleeve (Chevy Bolt). With the Bolt and Volt (Arriving soon to China) charging at full speed, anything less than doubling sales in 2017 will be considered a disappointment. As for the Cadillac CT6 PHEV career, i believe the ELR is a good sales indication...

Automotive Group	Units	% of sales
BYD	102.470	17
Renault-Nissan	86.247	1
Tesla	76.243	100
VW Group	62.480	1
BMW Group	62.157	3
BAIC	46.420	2
Zotye	37.363	15
Geely Group	32.760	3
General Motors	32.700	0
Mitsubishi	32.179	2

Looking at the percentage of plug-in sales of each OEM, besides the obvious case of Tesla, the two brands that have a significant share of EV's are BYD (17%) and Zotye (15%), with the remaining OEMs still having residual percentages, with the highest share of this third pack being the BMW and Geely Groups, both with 3% share. 

General Motors has a lot to improve, as their plug-ins still do not reach 1% of the Group sales, but even so, there are worse OEMs, like Toyota of Fiat-Chrysler... 

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2016 in Review

2016, also known as  Year Six of the Modern Age of Electric Cars is about to end, so i took the time to review some of the most important facts this year:

Model 3: 9 months away from hitting the roads, but already the most important EV in History

The EV Future will be bright (But it's not here yet)

If there is a phrase that sums up the general feeling in the Plug-in scene in 2016, it's the one above, starting with the production-spec Chevrolet Bolt Detroit presentation in January, the Tesla Model 3 earthquake in March, 31st, and ending with several announcements of long range EV's throughout the year, the fact is that buyers had a taste of the Second Generation EV's, but all they could buy during 2016 were First Generation BEV's / PHEV's and a couple of 1.5G models (Chevrolet Volt II, Hyundai Ioniq Electric), which lead to a Osborne effect in many western markets, with buyers preferring to wait for the upcoming models, leading to a drop in sales of First Generation electric cars.

BYD Song plug-in: Announced for 2016, now scheduled for 2017

BYD Remained Number One (But failed to amaze us) 

After watching BYD sales surge three-fold and reaching the Best Selling plug-in manufacturer status in 2015, one would think that sales would at least double in 2016, but this wasn't the case, with around 100.000 units sold this year, or 64% growth, it felt like when Messi won the Pichichi Trophy with 45 goals, yes it was impressive, but the previous year he had scored 50...

Having won seven Monthly Best Seller Trophies (January, April, May, June, July, August, October), and with a 30.000 units lead over the Second Placed Tesla, the Best Selling Manufacturer trophy is more than deserved, but this was more due to regularity (Five consecutive months at 10.000-something) than outlandish results, with the two most impressive results of the year going to Tesla (13.394 units last September) and Zotye (12.318 in October). Using the Messi analogy, it was like despite the 45 goals, not once did the Argentinean player scored a poker during the whole season.

The model diversification (Tang, e5, etc) occurred in 2015, didn't followed in 2016, with only the BYD Qin EV300 reinforcing the lineup, while the Song and Yuan Crossovers and the T3 Van remained in the sideline.

Will they appear in 2017? They'd better do, as 2017 in the Chinese EV Market will be even more fierce, with foreign carmakers forced to join the local EV party and on a global level, there will be other OEM's (Tesla, BMW, BAIC) targeting 100k or more EV's for 2017.

You'll better step up, BYD...

BAIC EU260: A rising star

China is Rising - Third Chapter

2016 was Year Three for the Chinese EV market, with foreign makers still neglecting the Chinese EV market, where the local brands have 95% of this booming market to themselves, this allowed the Chinese EV makers global share to rise from 31% in 2015 to 43% in 2016, with China rapidly becoming the place to be, not only it is the largest EV market in the World, but also the fastest growing one, volume-wise.

Even mentioning EV Share, China is making giant steps, their plug-in share is now at 1.4%, an important improvement over the 0.9% of 2015 and already above markets like the USA or Europe, both close to 1%.

If BYD and BAIC are frequently mentioned here, others are also contributing for this unstoppable wave, like Zotye (#6 in the global manufacturers ranking), SAIC Roewe (#12), Zhidou (#13) or Chery (#15).

An interesting trend is the steady climb of chinese cars in the global ranking, if in 2013 the best positioned chinese model was outside the Top 10 (#11 - Chery QQ3 EV), in the following year there were two (#7 - BYD Qin & #10 - Kandi EV) in the Top 10, 2015 witnessed three models in the Best Sellers ranking (#4 - BYD Qin; #6 - Kandi Panda EV; #8 - BYD Tang), while in 2016 there are four (#3 - BYD Tang; #7 - BYD Qin; #9 - BAIC E-Series EV; #10 - BAIC EU260) models, with the Tang becoming the first Chinese model to reach a Podium seat.

Expect for 2017 to reinforce this trend, maybe with five Chinese models in the Top 10?

I'm Too Sexy (To Surf the Wave)

Sometimes Tesla behavior reminds that of a certain Right Said Fred hit, with a near cult-like following from its fans and a Model 3 success that surpassed Elon's wildest dreams, it would be more than enough to keep every other OEM happy and they would just surf the wave and prepare for the Model 3 goldmine.

Not Tesla. During 2016, they did a Model S facelift (Ok, they had to do something about that nose), improved their P90D/90D versions, replaced the 70 version for the 60/75 units, which together with the QA issues of the Model X, created unnecessary production constraints in Q1 & Q2.

As the year progressed and the Q3 was turning out to be memorable, they thought: "This is becoming boring, we haven't presented anything awesome in the past couple of months, so what can we do? I know, the P90D is passé, let's do the P100D! And add the Second Gen. Autopilot!"

With another two jaw-dropping additions, they managed to increase even further their sexyness-awesomeness, with the minor detail of screwing up the production plan of Q4...

With all this, the new Power packs and all the rest that's going on (Gigafactory, Model 3 tooling...), being COO of Tesla must be one of the toughest jobs on Earth.

Then again, Tesla has to keep their cult followers happy, right?

BMW steps up from other German Automakers

Following on the Volkswagen Dieselgate and Tesla's increasingly larger appetite for premium customers, German automakers joined the EV bandwagon with both feet, announcing big plans for the future, but the fact is that in 2016, only BMW made the necessary step-up.

In the BMW i-line models, the i3 model finally received a decent battery, with 33kWh, pulling sales to record levels and making it the cornerstone of its plug-in strategy.

The German automaker also launched the 740e plug-in hybrid, which was an instant hit in its class, helping BMW to have the most extensive plug-in lineup of all, while all other PHEV's were also beating sales records, which allowed it to become the Third Best Selling Plug-in maker in 2016, the first among established OEMs;

German automakers global share remained stable at 19%, with BMW (8% Share) surpassing Volkswagen (5%) as the major Teutonic EV maker, with Mercedes in Third, with 2% share, Audi in Fourth (2%), followed by Porsche (1%) and Smart (0%), with BMW being the only brand to win share (+2%) regarding last year.

Global Sales Continue to Grow

After a slow start, EV sales picked up pace, now expected to surpass the 750.000 units, after the 140k of 2012, low-200k in 2013, 320k in 2014, and 550k last year.

Growth Is All Around

While Norway continues to be the poster-child for EV Share (29% Share!) and China the King of Volume (Over 100.000 units more than in 2015!), others are also making themselves noted, like Belgium (1.76% in '16 vs 0.78% in '15) or Austria (1.6% vs 0.6%), while several countries in the Scandinavian region, probably inspired by the Norwegian case-study, are growing at surprising rates and reaching high market shares, like Sweden (3.7%), Iceland (4.2%) on Finland (1.2%).

Other markets finally had their Year One in 2016, like Luxembourg (0,61%), Lithuania (0,40% vs 0,04% last year) or Romania (0.14%).

Despite the general positive trend, there were some slowing markets this year, with the largest being Japan, that for the second consecutive year is falling significantly, with its current market share (0.45%) far from the 2014 peak, when it was flirting (0.98%) with the 1% barrier.

Other two markets dropping significantly regarding 2015 are the Netherlands (3.4% vs 9.3%) and Denmark (0.6% vs 2.3%), but in these cases the culprit is easy to identify, as fiscal changes made EV's less appealing to local buyers.

Also of importance is the dissemination of plug-ins into countries not associated with EV's, like Malaysia (Some 106 units), UAE (283 sales), Sri Lanka (993 units!) or Ecuador (20 Twizzies).

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Five Exportable EV's from China

2017/8 Lynk & Co: Chinese Plug-in made for Export

Mass exports from Chinese Auto Brands to mature markets have been hampered by Safety and Emission concerns, as well as a general prejudice regarding products coming that country.

BEV's are seen as an opportunity, because the Emission part of the equation is solved from the beginning, while Safety and Design of Chinese cars have been evolving faster than their foreign competitors, reducing the gap, so it won't be long until the best Chinese Electric Cars are head-to-head  with the best mass market EV's.

To date, Chinese EV makers haven't really bothered to export their models, because their domestic is more than enough to absorb all production, but if they did, which would be the more successful? These would be my picks.

Bare in mind that i chose only all-electric cars and eschewed the current Top Best Sellers, this a personal view and others might choose different models.

BYD Qin EV300 - BYD's can be seen something a bit like Chinese Teslas, with Youtube videos showing their Tang SUV's racing BMW X6's and the like, BYD is not only the largest plug-in maker in the World, but also a cool one, a rare commodity among Chinese car makers. Unfortunately, like Tesla, coolness doesn't come cheap, and this Qin EV300 costs 260k Yuan (Price before subsidies), or around 36.000 euros. Did i hear you say: "Yikes, that's a lot of money for a Chinese car!". It is, but then again, you get a lot in return: 300 kms range from a 48 kWh battery, 218 hp, 0-100 kms/h in 7.9s, nice interiors...Think of it as sort of an all-electric Chevrolet Volt and you are not far from the truth. For those that still can't get past the price and don't mind a taxi-like-appliance, BYD offers the e5 300, which is basically the same package and specs, but with a less sexy outfit, for 230k Yuan, or 31.500 eur.

Geely Emgrand EV - The owner of Volvo joined this year the EV stage with the Emgrand EV, a BYD Qin fighter, that is slightly cheaper (252k Yuan, 34.5k eur), but has also slightly less range (253 kms from a 45 kWh battery),  and despite being no slouch (120 hp, 9.9s 0-100kms/h), is significantly slower. "So, why would people buy this, if the Qin has almost the same price but better specs?" - Some might ask. The short answer is "Volvo". As mentioned before, one of the weak points of Chinese Car Makers is brand cachet, or the lack of it. If BYD has become a known entity among the plug-in niche and can start there their branding, Geely as no cred among EV followers or the general public in developed markets, but add the word "Volvo" to the mix and things start to change, with the most recent Geely models sharing technology with the Swedish brand, Geely can use that card the same way Mercedes did with the Smart brand (Mercedes tech) or Renault with Dacia. That way, customers can say to their friends, neighbors and coworkers: "Yeah, my car came from China, but it's made with Volvo parts"

Chery eQ - A consistent seller in China, the funky eQ sells for 160k Yuan (22.000 Euro) before incentives and for that you get a decently equipped and sized city car, with 22kWh battery and 200 kms range, with the only drawback being the weak engine (56 hp, 100 kms/h top speed), at least by First World standards, which might put off people when thinking about some urban freeways. Add a bit more power to the engine and you could have a valuable competitor to the current crop of city EV's, as the Mitsubishi triplets are showing their age, the VW e-Up! is pricey, while the upcoming Smart Forfour ED looks too goofy (What were Smart designers smoking when did this last generation?!?).

Zotye Zhima E30 - An intriguing mash up of BMW i3, Smart Fortwo (Previous generation) and Tesla on the inside, this butch(y) city car, looks quite nice inside and out, but Zotye will have to improve specs to have success on foreign markets, especially considering the (steep) price: 25.000 Euro. Increase the 18 kWh battery size to some 24 kWh, pulling the range north of 200 kms, and place a peppy engine (100 hp should be enough) and this tittle bugger will have specs that match its hip design and make it a success.

BAIC EX200 - Ending this list without a Crossover would be ignoring probably the most significant automotive trend in China and globally, so among the rising number of BEV Crossovers made in China, i have chosen this model, the electric conversion of the Senova X25 best seller. This small Crossover (Think Kia Soul or Renault Captur) is only #19 in the plug-in ranking in China, but right now its sales potential could be hampered by the battery, the 30kWh allows only 200 kms range, if BAIC placed the 41 kWh battery of its EU260 sedan, then range would get a bump to some 250 kms and surely sales would increase significantly, more so if the engine were to be upgraded from the current 70 hp to 90/100 hp. Doing these changes and keeping price at current levels, 207k Yuan (28.500 Euro) before incentives, would transform this model in a real winner on foreign markets, especially considering the only plug-in model in that segment is the much more expensive Kia Soul EV.

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Batteries June 2016 (Updated) w/ Bus batteries ranking draft

The Rise and Rise of BYD 

EV Battery sales are growing 80%YoY, which is even more than the plug-in car market (+/- 50%), something that can be explained by the increasing size of the average EV battery. With the longer range BEV's just around the corner, expect Battery sales to grow even faster than today.

- No surprises in the leadership, Panasonic is comfortably above, thanks to the continued success of battery-hungry Tesla, but sales to the VW Group have dropped, now that they are more focused on the less battery-heavy PHEV's. Looking at the rest of the year, expect sales to Toyota to restart in a significant way, thanks to the Prius Prime PHEV. So basically, here it's business as usual for Panasonic;

- BYD is on a never-ending growing trend, being the only manufacturer to significantly improve share (17% now vs 14% in December '15 and just 6% in 2014!) in the ranking, all while tripling production YoY, thanks not only to the increase in EV production, but also in the average size of their batteries, with the largest being the 80kWh of the 2016 BYD e6; 

- AESC, the joint venture between NEC and Nissan, has benefited from the recent uptick in Leaf sales, to hang on and maintain its market share (11%), while at the same time recovering the Third Place from LG Chem;

- LG Chem, with the Volt II not growing to the expected levels, the Korean hasn't been capable to follow the intense market growth, but there shouldn't be much worries here, as the New Gen batteries for the Chevy Bolt and others should pull them back into the Third Place;

 - Samsung has a partnership with BMW and with the German car maker plug-in sales improving, Samsung has also seen sales grow, albeit it wasn't enough to win market share, as many of BMW sales belonged to PHEV's. 

- BPP / CATL is the first of a trio of Chinese battery makers in the second half of the ranking, with Wanxiang (SAIC provider) in #9, and Air Lithium (Kandi provider), with the first two experiencing surging sales and beating in six months what they had sold in the whole of 2015.

- In a fast growing market, Lithium Energy Japan (GS Yuasa / Mitsubishi) sales actually have dropped, hampered by the sales drop of the Outlander PHEV and lack of new models by the Japanese car maker, having inclusively been surpassed by the third Korean battery maker, SK Group, now #7, thanks to the continued success of the Kia Soul EV and, most importantly, their venture into the Chinese EV market, having been battery providers for some of BAIC all-electric plug-ins;

- A final mention for the #11 E-Power (151) and #12 Tianneng (119), two other Chinese battery makers that help China to obtain 33% of the batteries market, when in the same period last year, they had only 22%. This 11% share increase in only a year is probably one reason why the Chinese government felt confident enough to open the local batteries market to foreign battery manufacturers, as it feels that it will help develop the domestic EV market without killing local battery makers.

Pl	Battery Makers	H1 2016 MWh	(H1)   2015 MWh	%'16	% '15
1	Panasonic	3.088	(1.931)4.552	37	38
2 3	BYD AESC	1.443 930	(461) 1.652 (705) 1.272	17 11	14 11
4 5 6	LG Chem BPP / CATL Samsung	623 435 343	(569) 1.432 (139)    397 (294)    504	7 5 4	12 3 4
7	SK Group	241	(N/A)   N/A	3	N/A
8 9	Mitsubishi/GS Yuasa Wanxiang	236 230	(241)   600 (157)    268	3 3	5 2
10	Air Lithium (Luoyang)	164	(N/A)   283	2	2
	TOTAL	8.492	12.289

One of the big (un)known secrets is the electric Buses success in China, while i don't have actual sales numbers, a good reader of EV Sales provided me some numbers of the largest battery providers for electric buses in China:

1. BYD 1.161 MWh

2. CATL 1.099 MWh

3. Guoxuan 483 MWh

If BYD is not a surprise, CATL, or Contemporary Amperex Technology Limited, has such a high output for buses, that together with their car business (435 MWh) with BPP, makes it somewhat of a Dark Horse, as a reader in CleanTechnica once asked me if there could be such a thing in the Chinese Batteries business. It seems we found it...

As for Guoxuan, it is the first time i see them, does anybody has any input on them?

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Top EV Automotive Groups - May 2016

In the beginning of the year, i've published the 2015 EV sales divided by Automotive Groups, let's see how the ranking is after the first five months of 2016.

		Sales '16	%	Total Sales	%
	Renault-Nissan	36.729	15	328.074	22
	BYD	34.008	14	121.664	8
	VW (VAG)	21.852	9	94.330	6
	Tesla	21.677	9	130.924	9
	BMW	17.117	7	69.146	5
	Mitsubishi	15.614	7	150.580	10
	Geely	12.881	5	79.050	5
	GM	10.729	5	122.560	8

Comparing with the 2015 and all-time numbers:

- This year the Renault-Nissan Alliance is still in the leadership, but emerging BYD (14% share now vs 11% in 2015) is becoming increasingly menacing, it looks to be just a question of time until the Chinese Group becomes the Best Selling OEM when it comes to plug-ins;

- Another significant event to those less familiar with EV Sales, is that Tesla is selling as many plug-ins as the whole Volkswagen Group (Including, VW, Audi, Porsche...), although VAG is still new to the game, the fact is that it has lost 2% share regarding last year, while Tesla share has been stable throughout the years, surfing the EV wave at around 9 to 10% share;

- BMW is expanding its plug-in portfolio and it shows, with a steady climb, having surpassed Mitsubishi, which has suffered from a number of ailments (Emissions scandal, ageing BEV lineup, fiscal changes in key markets...), dropping 2% share regarding 2015, a poor performance for what it is still the historical Second largest EV Maker. Having a hard time to keep up with the times, Mitsu?

- Geely is stable in #7, with Kandi, Geely and Volvo performing ok in their respective price classes.

- General Motors has recovered some ground, rising to the #8 position, thanks to the Volt II, although it is still an embarrassing place to be for a OEM that once was among the pioneers in 2010/11 and inclusively won the Best Seller crown in 2012;

- A word of mention to the following positions, with BAIC in #9, Ford in #10 (4% share, below the historical average of 5%), SAIC in #11 and Daimler Group, of Mercedes and Smart, still languishing in #12, selling a third of the eternal rival BMW...Merc has a lot to recover. 

- Finally, looking at sales by OEM's country of origin, Chinese automakers are increasing their lead, having by now 36% of the market, up 5% over 2015 and 13%(!) over the historical record. Expect this lead to increase even further during the year, possibly reaching 50% share by year end.

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FCEV's: Fools Cells?

The Three Fuel Cell Musketeers: Mirai, Clarity and Tucson/ix35

2016 was heralded by many as the "Year of the Fuel Cell" because it will be the first full year of regular production of the Toyota Mirai and the introduction year of the Honda Clarity, which, adding to the already existing Hyundai Tucson/ix35 SUV, makes three models to choose from for prospective buyers interested in this kind of technology.

Unlike many detractors, which call them Fools Cells, i actually envision a future for this kind of technology, but also unlike the promoters of FCEV's, i just don't see them facing Battery Electric Vehicles head to head in the mainstream passenger cars, for me, Fuel Cells will be a niche player for larger, heavy-duty vehicles, a bit like Diesel is now in the USA and other markets outside diesel-loving Europe.

Let's see which are the main reasons for this assumption:

• Oil and Gas Industry are closely connected with Fuel Cells.

Unlike BEV's, where Electricity Utility companies are not actively lobbying, the almighty Oil and Gas industry are promoting heavily FCEV's as a way to keep their business running in a future with reduced revenue from oil, so it is expected for this technology to be more subsidized than BEV's, because of intensive lobbying and "high powers that be" will to keep on running business as usual.

• Fuel Cell technology does have its strong points.

The most important of them being fast refueling (Compared with a BEV) and reduced emissions (Compared to a gas car), so FCEV's can make a strong case for themselves when compared to regular ICE cars and even compared to BEV's in some specific niches, like long-range buses or heavy-duty trucks (Or even airplanes), where vehicles are used almost continuously, without time to stop and recharge for long periods, these advantages are key for the future for FCEV's. 

• But they also have downsides.

Besides the debatable question of reduced emissions, as it depends on which side of the wall you are in, there are unquestionable downsides to the technology, not only it is much more complex (And expensive) than a pure electric car, but it also uses a lot of space, which is another area where BEV's excel, comparing with regular cars. Add that to the fact that FCEV's are 6 to 7 years behind in economies of scale, regarding BEV's, and you have the main reasons for Fuel Cells losing the mainstream passenger car market to all electric cars.

2009 Toyota Highlander FCEV prototype

The foreseeable future for FCEV's

As seen before, FCEV's are a valuable replacement for regular ICE vehicles, but can't compete head on with BEV's, so they are left with niches where all-electric vehicles will have more difficulties to enter and Fuel Cell downsides are less determinant, like long range heavy-duty vehicles (Buses, Trucks, etc) and some of the larger Vans, Minivans, SUV's and Pick-up Trucks. 

Big Mistake

But instead of focusing on the technology strengths and go for larger vehicles, Fuel Cell promoters, like Toyota, Honda or Hyundai, are trying to sell the FCEV concept to the wrong market segments, be it midsize cars, like the Toyota Mirai or Honda Clarity, or compact SUV's, markets where BEV's will have it easier to win market share and Fuel Cells have a harder time disguising their weak points (Higher price and poorer space-efficiency), with this losing precious time to defend their possible niche markets from plug-ins. 

Also, in the Toyota case, giving the Mirai some Aztec-rivaling challenging aesthetics didn't helped much either...

Losing Ground

The disruptive force that Tesla is becoming, pushing plug-ins out of their niche and into mainstream, stealing sales from established ICE automakers like BMW (28%), Toyota (23%) or Audi (20%), it is also becoming increasingly menacing to the newborn Fuel Cell technology, as range of the Model S now touches 300 miles, it is close to the 312 (502 kms) announced by the Mirai, while eclipsing the 2014 Honda FCX Clarity (231 miles) and Hyundai Tucson/ix35 Fuel Cell (265).

True, the almost 300-mile Model S 90D is more expensive than the Mirai, but the difference isn't that significant (102.100€ vs 78.540€ in Germany) if you consider the Tesla is a car from a segment above, better in almost every aspect AND has lower running costs. Besides, the base Model S costs around 80.000€ and apart from range, it continues to be a far superior vehicle.

But the car segment is not where FCEV's are at their best, large SUV's and Pick-up trucks are markets where Fuel Cells could easily replace ICE models, but it seems that automakers are reluctant to make a Toyota Sequoia or Honda Ridgeline FCEV, preferring to keep their high margins in those cash-cow markets.

Only...If they don't hurry up, Tesla will (again) eat a slice of their cake, the Model X 90D has 257 miles of range, little less than of a possible Mirai SUV would have, and as the case of the Model S, it would be a more expensive but far better product than a hypothetical Mirai SUV.

As consequence, big SUV's could be already a lost market for FCEV's, so as the possibilities narrow down, the urgency for these automakers to shift priorities and launch Fuel Cell technology where it can be competitive (Pick-ups...) is increasing, as Tesla and others (BYD buses and do not forget the upcoming Chrysler Pacifica PHEV in the Minivan market) expand into new segments, FCEV's chances for success start to look increasingly smaller, not because the technology itself, but because of greed and mistakes made by the automakers committed to promote it.

Fools Cells? Not yet. But the odds are against them.

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BYD - 10.000 Electric Buses

10.000th BYD Electric Bus

Sometimes readers ask for Bus sales numbers, but unfortunately there is little to none available data in that category, so whenever something like this comes up, EV Sales is ready to report and satisfy the heavy vehicle niche...

BYD builds its 10.000th pure electric bus

Hat tip to samochodyelektryczne.org

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EV Business Case - Tesla and BYD

Tesla and BYD - Forever Production Constrained?

I - Tesla

A lot has been said about Tesla, the american brand in the recent past has helped to change people's minds over electric cars, from slow-mobiles, a bit dorkey & nerdy, to become the ultimate cool, a bit like "Tesla might not be the most popular kid in the Automotive High school, but it is coolest".

Most recently it was in the mainstream media with its Model 3 and the disruptive force it promises to be (Could it be the first EV to beat the c*** out of mainstream ICE cars?), but with it came a Million Dollar Question: "Can Tesla handle it?"

There weren't that many launches from Tesla to evaluate future behaviors, but looking at the Model S (The Roadster doesn't count here, as it was at whole different scale and the Model X is still reaching cruise speed), the Model S went like this:   

2012 - 2.700 units, available only in North America;

2013 - 22.200 units, expanded to Europe (2nd Semester);

2014 - 31.200 units, expanded to China and RHD markets (2nd Semester);

2015 - 50.400 units.

We can see a limited number of units in the initial year, with the numbers jumping in the first full production year to 22.200 units, then increasing 40% in the second full year and 60% into the third year, with the market expansion taking place over the years, with the peculiar fact that production seems to be always behind demand levels...Something made on purpose?

In the Model 3, Tesla will have the advantage of having already an oiled production and delivery system, with numbers probably reaching 150k units Model S/X in 2017, but by that time the reservations will be so huge  (600k? 700k?), that the ramp up has to be steep in order to satisfy such high level of demand, so my take on the Model 3 Production levels are:

2017 - 7.500 units, available only in North America;

2018 - 100.000 units, expanding to Europe (2nd Semester);

2019 - 250.000 units, expanding to China (New factory?) and RHD markets (2nd Semester);

2020 - 500.000 units.

Assuming that only half of the reservations transform into actual deliveries (I think it will be higher than that), someone that makes a reservation today, April 29th, will receive its Model 3 around...The second semester of 2019. It will be a looong wait...

II - BYD

Something of a Unsung Hero in the EV Scene, the progression of the chinese brand has been nothing short of spectacular in the last years:

2013 - 2.900 units;

2014 - 18.400 units;

2015 - 61.700 units.

And the sales targets set for the next years are also worthy of awe: 

2016: 150.000 units;

2017: 300.000 units;

2018: 600.000 units.

As we can see, far more aggressive targets than Tesla, which must be at around 300k in 2018...

One would think that these growth rates would be impossible to achieve only with the chinese market and BYD would finally start to export in significant numbers, but in the end, i believe the EV market in China will grow so fast that it will absorb all of the BYD plug-in production and frustrate their own export plans, let's look at the last numbers of the chinese EV Market: 

2013 - 14.000 units;

2014 - 60.000 units;

2015 - 190.000 units.

Extraordinary growth rates, right? Now considering that the market only doubles in the next few years...

2016 - 400.000 (Projected);.

2017 - 800.000 (Projected);

2018 - 1.600.000 (Projected).

Considering that BYD has had historically at least 30% of the Chinese EV market all to itself, it won't be difficult for the chinese brand to see its production almost all absorbed by its domestic market, leaving little for export plans.

That is unless BYD decides to go all Tesla and make their customers wait several months for their car...

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New models for 2016

Although technically started in 2015, it will be this year that the X will make an impact

With the Tesla Model 3 and Nissan Leaf II relegated to 2017, this years only disruptive model, the Chevrolet Bolt, will be available towards the end of the year, until then, the only significant novelties will come from China, with BYD continuing to launch new plug-ins, taking full profit of the current sales trend in China (SUV's and EV's). Volkswagen can also ride the same wave, if they decide to make the Tiguan GTE there. 

Chevrolet Bolt

This original MPV is said to have a 200 mi range, cost 38.000$  AND will be exported to selected markets.

As deliveries are only expected in the last quarter (December?) of the year, expect only a fraction (1.000 units?) of sales to delivered in 2016.

BYD Song PHEV

After the resounding success of the Tang, this is the second plug-in hybrid SUV coming from BYD.

The mid-size Crossover Song PHEV version will arrive in the First Quarter (March?) of the year, will cost around 44.000$ and will hit 0-100 kms/h in 4.9 seconds.

Once in cruising production level, i would say some 4.000 units will be sold, so i would guess a sales target of some 25.000 units for this year.

BYD Yuan PHEV

Next in line to appear in the BYD EV factory is the Yuan, a compact crossover set to launch in the first half of the year.

With AWD and an announced 4.9s from 0 to 100 kms/hour, this will be one mighty small SUV... 

I would guess the same production level as the Song, so the sales target will be around 17.000 units.

VW Tiguan GTE

This is a model VW has to get it right in order to ride the current trends of SUV's coupled with PHEV powertrains, 

Sharing the GTE specs with its Golf and Passat relatives, this will be the first test to see if VW is really supporting plug-ins, if it is, then it must sell in North America and China (with local production).

Sales target in Europe: 7.000 units

North America(?) - 4.000 units

China(???) - Lots of them. VW sells 250.000 Tiguans per year in China...

Other plug-in models will land this year, with the vast majority of them being of the PHEV variety:

BMW 330e

BMW 530e

BMW 740e

Cadillac CT6 PHEV

Chrysler Minivan PHEV

Hyundai Ioniq

Kia Optima PHEV

Mercedes E500e

New Smart Fortwo ED / Forfour ED

Volvo S90 T8 PHEV

A mention to two models that started their career in 2015, but will gain volume only this year:

Chevrolet Volt II - I would say that it will reach some 4.000 units/ month, so a sales target of 48.000 units shouldn't go far from reality;

Tesla Model X - Production ramp up will be gradual, so i would guess that the final deliveries target for the Crossover will be around 25k to 30k units.

As a fun exercise, let's look back at predictions made earlier regarding 2015:

- Renault-Nissan sales prediction: 95.000 units. Miss: Around 75k.

- Mitsubishi sales prediction: 50.000. Hit: Around 46k.

- Tesla sales prediction: 70 to 50.000. Hit, but the 50.000 units will be almost all Model S.

- Chevrolet sales prediction: 35.000. Big Miss, there were little more than 20k units sold. Reason: Limited availability of the Second Gen Volt.

- Ford sales prediction: 23.000. Hit. Around 21k.

- Toyota sales prediction: 13.000. Big Miss: 6.500 units, the Prius Plug-In performed even worse than expected.

- BYD sales prediction: 35.000. Big Miss: Around 60.000 units, almost double!

- BMW sales prediction: 30.000. Hit: Around 33.000 units, although the X5 plug-in won't reach the predicted 5.000 sales.

- Geely Group (Kandi + Volvo) sales prediction: 30.000. Hit: Around 33.000 units, although the XC90 plug-in won't reache the predicted 5.000 sales.

- Volkswagen sales prediction: 25.000. Miss: Around 37.000 units, both the Golf GTE and e-Golf sales were underestimated.

- Daimler Group (Mercedes + Smart) sales prediction: 20.000. Miss: 15.000 units. Mercedes sales were on target (11k), but Smart was a big miss, the 4k sold are half of what was expected (8k).

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