2016 in Review

2016, also known as  Year Six of the Modern Age of Electric Cars is about to end, so i took the time to review some of the most important facts this year:

Model 3: 9 months away from hitting the roads, but already the most important EV in History

The EV Future will be bright (But it's not here yet)

If there is a phrase that sums up the general feeling in the Plug-in scene in 2016, it's the one above, starting with the production-spec Chevrolet Bolt Detroit presentation in January, the Tesla Model 3 earthquake in March, 31st, and ending with several announcements of long range EV's throughout the year, the fact is that buyers had a taste of the Second Generation EV's, but all they could buy during 2016 were First Generation BEV's / PHEV's and a couple of 1.5G models (Chevrolet Volt II, Hyundai Ioniq Electric), which lead to a Osborne effect in many western markets, with buyers preferring to wait for the upcoming models, leading to a drop in sales of First Generation electric cars.

BYD Song plug-in: Announced for 2016, now scheduled for 2017

BYD Remained Number One (But failed to amaze us) 

After watching BYD sales surge three-fold and reaching the Best Selling plug-in manufacturer status in 2015, one would think that sales would at least double in 2016, but this wasn't the case, with around 100.000 units sold this year, or 64% growth, it felt like when Messi won the Pichichi Trophy with 45 goals, yes it was impressive, but the previous year he had scored 50...

Having won seven Monthly Best Seller Trophies (January, April, May, June, July, August, October), and with a 30.000 units lead over the Second Placed Tesla, the Best Selling Manufacturer trophy is more than deserved, but this was more due to regularity (Five consecutive months at 10.000-something) than outlandish results, with the two most impressive results of the year going to Tesla (13.394 units last September) and Zotye (12.318 in October). Using the Messi analogy, it was like despite the 45 goals, not once did the Argentinean player scored a poker during the whole season.

The model diversification (Tang, e5, etc) occurred in 2015, didn't followed in 2016, with only the BYD Qin EV300 reinforcing the lineup, while the Song and Yuan Crossovers and the T3 Van remained in the sideline.

Will they appear in 2017? They'd better do, as 2017 in the Chinese EV Market will be even more fierce, with foreign carmakers forced to join the local EV party and on a global level, there will be other OEM's (Tesla, BMW, BAIC) targeting 100k or more EV's for 2017.

You'll better step up, BYD...

BAIC EU260: A rising star

China is Rising - Third Chapter

2016 was Year Three for the Chinese EV market, with foreign makers still neglecting the Chinese EV market, where the local brands have 95% of this booming market to themselves, this allowed the Chinese EV makers global share to rise from 31% in 2015 to 43% in 2016, with China rapidly becoming the place to be, not only it is the largest EV market in the World, but also the fastest growing one, volume-wise.

Even mentioning EV Share, China is making giant steps, their plug-in share is now at 1.4%, an important improvement over the 0.9% of 2015 and already above markets like the USA or Europe, both close to 1%.

If BYD and BAIC are frequently mentioned here, others are also contributing for this unstoppable wave, like Zotye (#6 in the global manufacturers ranking), SAIC Roewe (#12), Zhidou (#13) or Chery (#15).

An interesting trend is the steady climb of chinese cars in the global ranking, if in 2013 the best positioned chinese model was outside the Top 10 (#11 - Chery QQ3 EV), in the following year there were two (#7 - BYD Qin & #10 - Kandi EV) in the Top 10, 2015 witnessed three models in the Best Sellers ranking (#4 - BYD Qin; #6 - Kandi Panda EV; #8 - BYD Tang), while in 2016 there are four (#3 - BYD Tang; #7 - BYD Qin; #9 - BAIC E-Series EV; #10 - BAIC EU260) models, with the Tang becoming the first Chinese model to reach a Podium seat.

Expect for 2017 to reinforce this trend, maybe with five Chinese models in the Top 10?

I'm Too Sexy (To Surf the Wave)

Sometimes Tesla behavior reminds that of a certain Right Said Fred hit, with a near cult-like following from its fans and a Model 3 success that surpassed Elon's wildest dreams, it would be more than enough to keep every other OEM happy and they would just surf the wave and prepare for the Model 3 goldmine.

Not Tesla. During 2016, they did a Model S facelift (Ok, they had to do something about that nose), improved their P90D/90D versions, replaced the 70 version for the 60/75 units, which together with the QA issues of the Model X, created unnecessary production constraints in Q1 & Q2.

As the year progressed and the Q3 was turning out to be memorable, they thought: "This is becoming boring, we haven't presented anything awesome in the past couple of months, so what can we do? I know, the P90D is passé, let's do the P100D! And add the Second Gen. Autopilot!"

With another two jaw-dropping additions, they managed to increase even further their sexyness-awesomeness, with the minor detail of screwing up the production plan of Q4...

With all this, the new Power packs and all the rest that's going on (Gigafactory, Model 3 tooling...), being COO of Tesla must be one of the toughest jobs on Earth.

Then again, Tesla has to keep their cult followers happy, right?

BMW steps up from other German Automakers

Following on the Volkswagen Dieselgate and Tesla's increasingly larger appetite for premium customers, German automakers joined the EV bandwagon with both feet, announcing big plans for the future, but the fact is that in 2016, only BMW made the necessary step-up.

In the BMW i-line models, the i3 model finally received a decent battery, with 33kWh, pulling sales to record levels and making it the cornerstone of its plug-in strategy.

The German automaker also launched the 740e plug-in hybrid, which was an instant hit in its class, helping BMW to have the most extensive plug-in lineup of all, while all other PHEV's were also beating sales records, which allowed it to become the Third Best Selling Plug-in maker in 2016, the first among established OEMs;

German automakers global share remained stable at 19%, with BMW (8% Share) surpassing Volkswagen (5%) as the major Teutonic EV maker, with Mercedes in Third, with 2% share, Audi in Fourth (2%), followed by Porsche (1%) and Smart (0%), with BMW being the only brand to win share (+2%) regarding last year.

Global Sales Continue to Grow

After a slow start, EV sales picked up pace, now expected to surpass the 750.000 units, after the 140k of 2012, low-200k in 2013, 320k in 2014, and 550k last year.

Growth Is All Around

While Norway continues to be the poster-child for EV Share (29% Share!) and China the King of Volume (Over 100.000 units more than in 2015!), others are also making themselves noted, like Belgium (1.76% in '16 vs 0.78% in '15) or Austria (1.6% vs 0.6%), while several countries in the Scandinavian region, probably inspired by the Norwegian case-study, are growing at surprising rates and reaching high market shares, like Sweden (3.7%), Iceland (4.2%) on Finland (1.2%).

Other markets finally had their Year One in 2016, like Luxembourg (0,61%), Lithuania (0,40% vs 0,04% last year) or Romania (0.14%).

Despite the general positive trend, there were some slowing markets this year, with the largest being Japan, that for the second consecutive year is falling significantly, with its current market share (0.45%) far from the 2014 peak, when it was flirting (0.98%) with the 1% barrier.

Other two markets dropping significantly regarding 2015 are the Netherlands (3.4% vs 9.3%) and Denmark (0.6% vs 2.3%), but in these cases the culprit is easy to identify, as fiscal changes made EV's less appealing to local buyers.

Also of importance is the dissemination of plug-ins into countries not associated with EV's, like Malaysia (Some 106 units), UAE (283 sales), Sri Lanka (993 units!) or Ecuador (20 Twizzies).

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Before The Flood - The Film, Renewables and EV's

While watching "Before the Flood", for a moment i had a sense of deja vu, as in some points it reminded me of another film, the 2006 An Inconvenient Truth,  excluding narrative and cinematology (Actual word) details, the fact is that the essence of both is the same: 

Climate Change and urgence to cope with it.

Well, after 10 years, has anything changed?

To answer that, we have to rewind time even further.

1. Kyoto Protocol

Following the 90's global warming concerns, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997, with the objective to reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, with 192 countries currently now part of it. Only...It is non-binding for most countries, and also the USA, which accounted for 36% of emissions in 1990, signed the agreement but hasn't put it into practice, in fact things got worse in 2011, when Canada, Japan and Russia stated they would not take on Kyoto targets anymore.

In short, a lot of good intentions, but not a lot done in practice.

2. The Lost Years

The end of the Second Age of the Electric Car, in 2002, signaled also a slowdown in the cost reduction of Renewables, in fact we can say that the following 6 to 7 years after 2002 were lost to Green Tech, because of a hostile Political and Economical environment.   

 3. Back to Business

The year 2009 signaled a significant drop in Solar Power cost while at the same time the Third Age of the Electric Car started, leading to the point where we are now, Renewables and Electric Cars are the new Cool (Kudos Tesla) and ready to go into the mainstream business.

"Without time", some would say, as the four hottest years on record all happened after 2009, and 2015 was the hottest year ever, with the global climate giving its first signs of significant change, time seems in deed to be running out.

And that leads us to...

4. USA - The Lesser Evil Choice

Unlike what happened in the past, think around the year 2000, when the USA were a leader in Green Energy Tech, now that role belongs to Renewable Superpower China (#1 on EV's too), the choice US voters will make in a few days will still have an impact on the success of we how will tame Climate Change.

Regardless of what one might think regarding of each candidate (How did they managed to choose so poorly?), the fact is that US citizens have to choose between one of them, and this useful article helps to have an insight of what the outcome will be if one or the other gets elected regarding Climate Change.

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Five years Ago...September 2011

These were the pioneers to the current EV Scene

Sometimes we forget how fast the EV Market is evolving, while there are times when we get frustrated that things are not growing faster and a real impact on the Global Automotive market is still years ahead, if we look back five years, we will find a very different scenery, both regarding Models, but especially in Volumes...

This was the YTD Top 5 in September 2011:

1. Nissan Leaf - 16.588 units;
2. Mitsubishi I-Miev - 6.429;
3. Chevrolet Volt - 6.282;
4. Chery QQ3 EV - 1.444;
5. Smart Fortwo ED - 883;

Several things come to mind:

- The market was much more concentrated, the leader Nissan Leaf had some 40% the total market, while the Top 3 owned 75% on the market;

 - The only survivor in the current 2016 Top 10 ranking is the Nissan Leaf, while the Gen 1 Volt ended its career last year, with the Gen. 2 following on its predecessor successful career, the remaining models are still available, but are either at the end of their career (Smart), irrelevant (Chery) or being surpassed by more substantial EV's (I-Miev family);

 - While the current Top 5 is diversified, with one high end sedan (Model S), two SUV's (Outlander PHEV and Qin) and two compacts (C-Segment for Euro-speakers), back in the day, the same two compacts were joined by three tiny city cars, which underlined the idea that many had then, that EV's were little more than glorified golf carts. Who wanted "real" family cars, capable to haul the loved ones and respective stuff, were left with few choices;

 - The real difference is in the sales numbers, which speak volumes of how far we have come, we can say that we are now registering twice as much in one month (77k in September) as in the first 9 months of 2011. For example, the September performance of the Model S (8k), would be enough to reach Second Place in 2011.

 Talking about these models career:

 - The Leaf is at over 240.000 units by now, being the most popular EV in the World, so one can only classify it as a success;

 - The Mitsubishi I-Miev family, including the Citröen C-Zero and Peugeot iOn, is currently at 38k units, could be classified as OK selling, rather as a success, but currently it is getting long in the tooth and only a low, low price can help it find new buyers;

 - As for the First Generation Chevrolet Volt , the roughly 100.000 units produced (Including the European Ampera) did the job of setting the first stone on the GM e-mobility plan without losing money, but GM could have done so much better with this car...

 - The Chery EV (27k) and Smart ED (19k) ultimately were handicapped by their automakers limited ambitions, especially in the case of Smart.

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2015 in Review (Updated)

2015, also known as  Year Five of the Modern Age of Electric Cars is about to end, so i took the time to review some of the most important facts this year:

Song PHEV: Next Best-Seller for BYD?

BYD Becomes Number One 

The Chinese brand progression in the last couple of years has been impressive, from #11 in 2013, with less than 3.000 units delivered, BYD has becomed the undisputed Best Selling manufacturer in the World!

After rising to #7 (And 18k sales) in 2014, thanks to the Qin performance, BYD was simply irresistible this year: Fourth in January, Third in June, Second in July, and finally first in October.

The model diversification (Tang, e5, etc) occurred in the second half of the year, not only contributed to win the Best Selling Manufacturer title, but it also tripled sales YoY, will they be able to keep up with this booming trend in 2016?

Even if they can't, this extraordinary performance places the chinese carmaker as one of the top players for 2016, along with Nissan, Tesla or Volkswagen.

A differentiating feature of BYD is also the global in-house approach to batteries, instead of sub-contracting them to a battery supplier, they are made in-house, not only for their cars, but also for e-buses (6.000 delivered in 2015), forklifts, storage utilities, etc.

Basically you can say that this Chinese company is the opposite of a regular plug-in automaker: For BYD, batteries are the core product, while the rest of the car is just a a by-product... 

China is Rising - Second Chapter

2015 was Year Two for the Chinese EV market, with foreign makers still neglecting the Chinese EV market, where the local brands have 95% of this booming market to themselves, this allowed the Chinese EV makers global share to rise from 6% in 2013, to 17% in the following year, to 31% in 2015, with China becoming the largest EV Maker in the world and also the largest market for plug-ins globally.

The EV Share in China is now at 0.9%, an impressive improvement over the 0.24% of 2014 and above markets like the USA or Germany, with these indications, 2016 will surely break the 1% barrier, maybe even reaching 1.5%.

If BYD and Kandi are frequently mentioned here, others are also contributing for this unstoppable wave, like Zotye (#9 in the manufacturers ranking), BAIC (#12), Chery (#13) or SAIC (#15).

An interesting trend is the steady climb of chinese cars in the global ranking, if in 2013 the best positioned chinese model was outside the Top 10 (#11 - Chery QQ3 EV), in the following year there were two (#7 - BYD Qin & #10 - Kandi EV) in the Top 10, and 2015 will probably witness four models in the Best Sellers ranking (#4 - BYD Qin; #6 - Kandi Panda EV; #9 -  BAIC E-Series EV; #10 - BYD Tang).

Expect for 2016 to reinforce this trend...

Model S Excels

Although the Model X is currently filling the headlines for Tesla, the Model S has done 99,99% of the heavy lifting for the Fremont-based automaker, and despite costing twice as much as the rest of the EV competition, it has become the Best Selling EV this year!

Here are two impressive facts:

- Deliveries have constantly increased over each year, so sales haven't yet peaked *;

* - 2012 (2.650 deliveries), 2013 (22.477), 2014 (31.655), 2015 (45.000 est.)

- To date, it was the only plug-in car that has consistently sold in the same league of their ICE class best sellers, managing even to outsell them in some markets (Norway, Switzerland, Denmark...).

Volkswagen I - Das (Plug-In) Auto

The German automaker ended 2014 in a discrete #11 in the EV manufacturers ranking and #6 in Europe, a poor showing for the largest auto manufacturer in Europe and one of the largest in the World.

Fast Forward two months to February '15 and things were looking very different, with the heat pumped e-Golf and Golf GTE tandem in full swing, the Wolfsburg-based manufacturer was leader in Europe and #4 worldwide.

Throughout the following months, VW kept leading the way in several top Markets (Norway, Netherlands...) and discussing with Mitsubishi the European Leadership, while on a global level, it had dropped one position, staying firm in Fifth.

By the time the IAA Expo opened in September, prospects were good for VW's plug-in plans, despite not pushing their sales effort, they had stabilized the leadership in Europe, the Fifth Place was also secure on a global level, and with the all-important Passat GTE coming soon, it looked that the slow but steady approach to EV's was working, and somewhere in the future, the automaker would be ready to lead the transition to electric without hurting too much their profits...

Volkswagen II - Das Diesel Gate

...And then all hell broke loose with the diesel emissions scandal in the US, in a midst of a media-nightmare, VW heads decided that going electric was a media-friendly way to surpass the crisis, so they announced a number of EV models for the future.

Unlike their regular ICE car sales, VW plug-ins weren't affected by the scandal, keeping in line with longer term trends, like the sinking of the VW e-Up! (Down to ten positions to #16 in Europe), the solid performances from the Golf GTE and e-Golf, and the incoming success of the Passat GTE, already the best selling model of its class in November.

German Automakers finally warm up to Plug-ins

Following on the success of the BMW i sub-brand, VW's Dieselgate and Tesla's increasingly larger appetite for premium customers, German automakers joined the EV bandwagon with both feet this year, creating plug-in (hybrid) versions of regular ICE cars and selling them as expensive options for early adopters / compliance markets:

- After the BMW i-line models, the German automaker launched the X5 PHEV version, which has received a positive welcome from consumers, already beating the i3 in some markets as the best selling BMW Plug-in, a positive sign for the upcoming 225xe Active Tourer and 330e;

- The Audi A3 e-Tron has found success in Europe, reaching #7 this year and looking to replicate the success in North America in 2016;

- Mercedes has now four(!) Plug-in models on sale, with sales increasing every month, mostly thanks to the runaway success of the C350e, with an extended waiting list, this is one carmaker that could sell even more if it wanted to;

- Regarding the other two german auto manufacturers present, Smart lost 33% of sales YoY, still waiting for the new Fortwo / Fourfour model, while Porsche is comfortably managing their leadership position in the upper-end of the Premium segment;

- The GM-adopted Opel Ampera has ended its career, and because Opel was denied for a Ampera II model, it has to wait for the Bolt-based model to be available in 2017;

- German automakers Global Share almost doubled, from 11% in 2014, to 20% in 2015, with Volkswagen (7% Share) surpassing BMW (6%) as the major Teutonic EV maker, with Audi in Third, with 2% share, Mercedes in Fourth (2%), followed by Porsche (1%) and Smart (1%).

Global Sales Continue to Grow

After a slower start, EV sales have increased greatly towards the second half of this year, with the last quarter above the 50k sales/month, with global sales now expected to surpass the 500.000 units barrier, after the 140k of 2012, low-200k in 2013 and 320k in 2014, looking back, the initial forecast of 400k units this year now looks a bit conservative.

Growth Is All Around

While Norway continues to be the poster-child for EV Share (23%!) and China the King of Volume (Over 100.000 units more than in 2014!), others are also making themselves noted, like The Netherlands, growing from one year to the other in an astounding way (15k in '14 vs 35-40k in '15), France (1.37% Share in '15 vs 0,91% in '14), Switzerland (2.00% vs 0.75%), Hong Kong (2.57% vs 0.47%) and the UK (1.03% vs 0.56%), while several countries in the Scandinavian region, probably inspired by the Norwegian case-study, are growing at surprising rates and reaching high market shares, like Sweden (2.23%), Iceland (2.80%) on Denmark (1,64%).

Other markets finally had their Year One in 2015, like South Korea (0,14% in 2015 vs 0,08% in '14), the Czech Republic (0,18% vs 0,04%), Slovenia (0,18% vs 0,05%) or Ukraine (0.98% vs virtually zero), while others have rebounded into the righteous path, like Portugal (0,64% in '15 vs 0,25% in '14).

Slowing markets were just a few this year, with the largest of them being the USA and Japan, while the Latvian and Estonian markets simply imploded, dropping from a few hundred units a year lo less than fifty. 

Also of importance is the dissemination of plug-ins by countries not associated with EV's, like South Africa (Currently in Year Zero, with some 250 units), Mexico (Ditto, 350 sales), Colombia (211 Twizzies registered!), Taiwan (92 EV's registered in 2015), Malaysia (30), Malta (27), Chile (25) or Tahiti (22 Twizzies).

Year Zero for Fuel Cells  

Retail sales finally started for the Toyota Mirai, but in limited numbers, with the total volume of sales around 500/600 units globally, divided by the Toyota Mirai and Hyundai ix35/Tucson FCEV, with the first outselling the second in an order of  4 to 1.

2015, Year of the PHEV SUV 

Despite contrary predictions, pure electrics cars managed to hold on the majority of sales, mostly thanks to Tesla, with Plug-in Hybrids recovering only 2% share, to 40%.

This year, (PH)EV's spreaded across several segments, with two of them receiving new models, almost at once:

- Luxury SUV's (0% in '14, 2% this year) saw the arrival en force of the BMW X5 PHEV, the Volvo XC90 PHEV has finally started to fulfill a really high waiting list, while the Tesla Model X, Mercedes GLE500e and Audi Q7 e-Tron are still to arrive in significant numbers;

- The Midsize class (D-Segment, in Europe) has seen the arrival of the hot Mercedes C350e, but an even hotter model has arrived in the end of 2015, the VW Passat GTE, which promises to be a market leader in Europe, and with the BMW 330e bound to land soon, this class will surely grow fast in 2016.

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World All Time Top 10 (Updated to 25th April 2015)

Models

The top spots remain the same, with the Model S closing in to the #3 Prius Plug-In, with the Outlander PHEV climbing another position to #5, while its older brother I-Miev (#6) starts to look a bit long-in-the-tooth in this ranking.

The race for #7 is tight between the Renault Zoe and the fashionable BMW i3, while the Chery QQ3 EV drops to #10 and hands over the Most Common Chinese EV Title for the #9 BYD Qin star.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Nissan Leaf	171.836
2	Chevrolet Volt (1)	88.105
3	Toyota Prius Plug-In	71.351
4	Tesla Model S	66.069
5	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	59.552
6	Mitsubishi I-Miev (2)	31.501
7	Renault Zoe	22.755
8	BMW i3	22.655
9	BYD Qin	21.208
10	Chery QQ3 EV	20.318

Manufacturers

By brands, Nissan continues rock-solid in the leadership, but Mitsubishi climbed to #2, dropping a slower selling Chevrolet behind.

In the last places of the ranking, Chery dropped to #10, with BMW joining the ranking in #9 and in #8 we have the impressive BYD, which has been piling up records each month.

Pl	Brand	Sales
1	Nissan	175.046
2	Mitsubishi (2)	97.718
3	Chevrolet (1)	90.303
4	Toyota	75.372
5	Tesla	68.703
6	Renault	59.866
7	Ford	46.501
8	BYD	33.431
9	BMW	23.676
10	Chery	22.226

(1) - Also includes Holden Volt, Opel and Vauxhall Ampera sales;
(2) - Also includes Citröen C-Zero and Peugeot iOn sales;

Categories


Dividing the plug-in sales by the conventional segments used for gas cars, it is possible to see how each segment leader stands in the global EV chart:

A (City Cars) - Mitsubishi I-Miev (#6)

     - Profiting from a long life (On sale since 2009) and the accumulated sales of the first years, but this year it's only #26 in the ranking;

B (Superminis) - Renault Zoe (#7)

     - Best selling car of the segment, but barely, the stronger selling BMW i3 is only 100 units behind and will surely outrun it next month;

C (Compact) - Nissan Leaf (#1)

     - Still the Golden Standard of the electric car;

D (Midsize) - Ford Fusion Energi (#11)

     - After several months running against the Volvo V60 Plug-In (#16) in the past, the american has won enough advantadge to lead comfortably this segment;

E/F (Full-size) - Tesla Model S (#4)

     - No real competition for Tesla, their direct competitors are not plug-ins, but the premium best sellers like the BMW 5/6-Series, Audi A6/7, Merc E/CLS-Class or Porsche Panamera;

SUV - Mitsubishi Outlander Plug-In (#5)

     - The affordable Midsize Plug-in Hybrid SUV is a sweet spot for sales and Mitsu has it all for itself;

MPV - Ford C-Max Energi (#11)

     - No real competition for Ford's MPV/tall hatchback, next is the BYD e6, some 12.000 units behind…

LCV/ Van - Renault Kangoo ZE (#13)

     - The Renault offering dropped six positions regarding a year ago due to slow sales. The e-NV200 / Evalia twins, although still far behind the leader, have been going strong, watch out Mitsu Minicab Miev (#2 van), you might get surpassed this year;

Sports Cars -  BMW i8 (#34)
     - The out of production Tesla Roadster was finally dethroned, the i8 came from the future to reclaim it and put the ELR to shame;

Pick-Up Trucks - Ford Ranger EV (#48)

     - The last dinosaur standing, with a couple years still to endure, as the closest rival is the 600 units away Mitsu Minicab Miev, which sells roughly 200 units a year, it looks it will take an additional three years to catch up the 1998 Ford Pick-up. 

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2014 in Review

2014, also known as  Year Four of the Modern Age of Electric Cars has ended, so i took the time to review some of the most important facts of EV Markets this year:

Bumpy Ride for Tesla

For some it's the Brand-They-Love-To Hate, for other it's more like a Religion, for me is just a much needed disruptive automaker that will force established players go into plug-ins.

And that has been achieved, with Tesla-Killers being announced almost everyday (Will they deliver? Will they even hit the streets?), but regarding Tesla itself, things could be rosier, with predicted sales reaching some 30.000 units (Still, a 40-50% increase) this year and the constant delays in the Model X production schedule and Model III development, the american brand is promising a lot and delivering still very little (30k units are a blip compared with the near million units that German Premium carmakers deliver every year).

This year sales grew thanks to new markets to the brand and growth in existing ones, like Canada (600 in '13 vs 800-900 in '14) or Norway (2k vs 4k), while others had plateaued, like the all-important domestic market in the US (18k vs 17-18k) or the Netherlands (1.2k vs 1.2-1.3k), the AWD models addition will probably enhance sales, particularly in colder climate markets, as people change their RWD to AWD cars, but the real jump should come from the Model X, the launch moment and following production rhythm will determine if Tesla really succeeds in 2015 or if it's going to end as another so-so year, like it did in 2014.

During the year, Tesla was frequently on the news, be it for dealership bans, sales numbers, new sales markets & respective Supercharger launches,  China deliveries, or the more recent AWD Model S, which in turn revealed yet another debate regarding range numbers...

Despite all this media-frenzy, the fundamentals are there, the product is class-leading, the infrastructure is spreading, now all they need is Apple-like money to deliver all those promises they make.


Global Sales Continue to Grow

After a slow start, EV sales have increased greatly towards the second half of this year, with two months above the 30k sales (June and September), with global sales now expected to surpass the 300.000 units barrier, after the 140k of 2012 and low-200k in 2013, will we see plug-ins reach 400k this year? Probably, but much due to new PHEV's landing, one thing is certain, the millionth EV running around the streets will definitely be reached in 2015.

Growth Is All Around

While Norway continues to be the poster-child for EV Share and the US for volume, others are also making themselves noted, like China growing from one year to the other in an astounding way (18k in '13 vs 50-55k in '14), Germany (0,42% Share in '14 vs 0,23% in '13) and the UK finally waking up to plug-ins (0,52% vs 0,16%) and many countries of the Scandinavian/Baltic region, probably inspired by the Norwegian case-study, are growing at surprising rates and passing the 1% barrier, including some unforeseen markets, like Latvia(!).

Other markets finally had their Year One in 2014, like New Zealand (0,23% EV Share in '14 vs 0,007% in '13) or have rebounded into the righteous path, like Ireland (0,27% in '14 vs 0,08% in '13).

To see the difference between 2014 and 2013, while EV's lost share in eleven countries from 2012 to the next year, now only Israel is below the 2013 EV Share, with the culprits for this having a known face (Better Place failure).

Also of importance is the dissemination of plug-ins by other countries still not associated with EV's, like Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Morocco or the UAE(!).

The Kandi Factor

Probably the biggest surprise of the year, this Smart-lookalike isn't a car to break new ground in anything special, except on the way it presents itself to the general public, in country without a strong car-ownership-culture, electric car sharing in giant vending-machines, like the one above, is proving to be a hit and although hard to find, delivery numbers prove it, with the tiny car racing the BYD Qin for the Chinese EV leadership and at the same time, joining the EV Global Top 10 ranking.

BMW's risky bet is paying off

When challenged to the task of entering the plug-ins car segment, BMW took a risky bet, creating not only dedicated cars, but also a new sub-brand with dedicated dealerships and sales forces, and on top of that, cars, technologies and sales network had little to do with the known BMW, it was almost like creating a new brand from scratch.

If the prototype-stage of the i8 was almost immediately loved by buyers and media, many scratched their heads on the stubby and most un-BMW i3.

The German maker first launched the i3 in late 2013 and with early mixed reviews, BMW made a conservative sales-pitch of 10.000 units for 2014.

Now that the year is ending, sales of the i3 are at 15k and the i8 is proving to be an even more astounding sales hit, with waiting lists surpassing one year...

No wonder BMW is already thinking in developing a larger i3 (i5?) and sportier i8 (i8s? i9?).


China is Rising

With foreign makers neglecting the Chinese EV market, the local brands were almost the sole benefiters of the threefold sales jump originated there, with the Chinese EV makers global share rising from 6% in 2013 to 15% last year, surpassing France as the Third Global EV Maker country.

If BYD and Kandi are frequently mentioned here, others are also contributing for this event, like Chery (8.000 units in '14, only 100 sales behind Volkswagen), Zotye (5.900 units, ahead of Smart and Volvo) or BAIC (2.600 units).

Expect for 2015 to continue this trend...

Zoe Returns

Renault had big hopes for its Zoe, wanting to make it a sort of Euro-Taste-Leaf and hoping it would lead plug-in sales in the Old Continent.

Despite a promising start, as new competition joined the race, Zoe's sales started to suffer, ending 2013 in #2 in Europe (#6 in the Global ranking), but losing a lot of ground to the more recent competition.

2014 started poorly, with a #7 spot in the Euro ranking in January and continuing around there until May, in June sales finally picked-up (1.016 units) and the french hatch finally started to climb the European ranking, reaching #3 in November and re-entering the Global Top 10 ranking.

After including the batteries in the ownership of the car, Renault is looking in 2015 to improve range and chargeability of the car in order to improve even further sales and prevent the french brand to be placed on the "Losers" side of this year.


The German half-hearted foray into EV's are returning half-hearted results to domestic brands

With the exception of BMW, German volume carmakers have until now a pretty conservative approach towards plug-ins.

Unlike BMW, other German carmakers optioned for creating plug-in versions of regular ICE cars and selling them in limited numbers, with limited results to show:

- In Europe, the electric version of the almighty Golf is only #9 and the e-Up! is #6, while the Golf GTE/Audi A3 e-Tron are still giving their first baby steps;

- With two plug-in models on sale, Mercedes has sold 210 units last November, also with two models, BMW sold over 1.800 units in the same period;

- Regarding the other two german carmakers present, Smart is waiting for the new Fortwo model, while Porsche is comfortably managing their leadership position in the upper-end Premium segment (Tesla is in a whole different planet);

- The GM-adopted Opel Ampera is ending and Opel is waiting for something to come up from the GM mothership to rejoin the plug-in scene;

- Although German carmakers Global Share grew from 3% to 11% in 2014, BMW is responsible for 6 of those 11%, with VW having 3%, Smart 2% (The same result it had in '13) and the others...Zero-something.

Year Minus One for Fuel Cells  

Fuel Cells (FCV) had been present in concept-car form for ages, but no one still had made the plunge to create a volume FCV car.

This year though, Toyota presented the Mirai, or "Future" in japanese, is futuristic in technology but also in shape, not like the BMW "The Future will be awesome" i8, but more like "In the Future we will obey to Terminators driving Mirais". 

Sales started in Japan two weeks ago, and volumes are predicted to be small (700 units in 2015, 2.000 the next year and steady growth from then on), due to high prices and an ugly face, but the Tesla Roadster also started with small numbers...


2015, Year of the PHEV SUV

Pure electric cars have been improving their market share regarding PHEV's since 2012 (50% in '12, 57% the next year and 60% last year), mostly thanks to Tesla, but the next year Plug-in Hybrids should rebound in a big way, not only the refreshed Chevrolt Volt will probably double its sales, but there's also a bundle of PHEV versions of regular cars coming, particularly SUV's:

- Audi A7 e-Tron;

- BMW X5 Plug-In;

- BYD Tang;

- Mercedes C350e (Plug-In Hybrid);

- Volkswagen Passat GTE;

- Volvo XC90 T8 (Plug-In Hybrid);

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World All Time Top 10 (Updated to 30 April 2014)

Tesla's Model S is on the move

Models

In the models ranking the news are the rise-and-rise of the Model S, from #6 to #4, with the Outlander PHEV also climbing to new heights, up from #10 to #6 and with its older brother I-Miev just waiting to be surpassed.

The rock-solid Kangoo ZE is still in #7, while the Chery QQ3 EV rises to #8 and in tenth place, we have the first Ford in the ranking, the C-Max Energi.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Nissan Leaf	114.753
2	Chevrolet Volt (1)	70.651
3	Toyota Prius Plug-In	56.153
4	Tesla Model S	33.039
5	Mitsubishi I-Miev (2)	27.823
6	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	26.276
7	Renault Kangoo ZE	13.660
8	Chery QQ3 EV	13.240
9	Renault Twizy	12.649
10	Ford C-Max Energi	11.945

BYD hopes to benefit from the Qin sales and reach the Top 10

Manufacturers

By brands, Nissan is firm in its leadership position, but Mitsubishi, fueled by the Outlander success, and has just climbed to #3, and can go after Chevrolet's Second Place in the near future.

In the last places of the ranking, Chery climbed one postion to #8, Volvo joined the ranking in #9 and in #10 we have Smart, which last year has removed BYD from the last place in the ranking, but the chinese manufacturer is hoping that the Qin numbers allows it to recover its place once again.

Pl	Brand	Sales
1	Nissan	114.783
2	Chevrolet (1)	71.626
3	Mitsubishi (2)	59.835
4	Toyota	59.296
5	Renault	41.434
6	Tesla	36.673
7	Ford	25.900
8	Chery	13.377
9	Volvo	10.050
10	Smart	9.552

(1) - Also includes Holden Volt, Opel and Vauxhall Ampera sales;
(2) - Also includes Citröen C-Zero and Peugeot iOn sales;

Categories


Dividing the plug-in sales by the conventional segments used for gas cars, it is possible to see how each segment leader stands in the global EV chart:

A (City Cars) - Mitsubishi I-Miev (#5)

     - By far the most common electric city car, but currently out of the first places in 2014;

B (Superminis) - Renault Zoe (#11)

     - Best selling car of the segment, surely for the next year or so;

C (Compact) - Nissan Leaf (#1)

     - Currently the Golden Standard of the electric car;

D (Midsize) - Volvo V60 Plug-In (#12)

     - An entertaining fight between the swedish wagon and the american sedan (Less than 500 units separates them), even if they don't race directly against each other in any market;

E/F (Full-size) - Tesla Model S (#4)

     - Tesla is so far ahead on the game that its direct competition are not plug-ins, but the premium best sellers like the BMW 5-Series, Audi A6, Merc E-Class or Porsche Panamera.

SUV - Mitsubishi Outlander Plug-In (#6)

     - The example of the Columbus Egg applies here, how come no one had ever thought of a Plug-in Hybrid SUV?

MPV - Ford C-Max Energi (#10)

     - No real competition for the american car, apart from the BYD e6, some 6.000 units behind…

LCV - Renault Kangoo ZE (#7)

     - Stable sales and weak competition enable for Renault an easy win here;

Sports Cars -  Tesla Roadster (#28)

     - A neglected segment of the market lead by the out of production Tesla Roadster;

Pick-Up Trucks - Ford Ranger EV (#34)

     - Since Ford 1.500 units of the Ranger EV way back in the last millennium (1998), only Mitsubishi bothered with this segment, making the Japan-only Mitsubishi Minicab Miev Truck, but with just 673 units sold since it came to market, it still has a lot to go to remove the Best Selling Electric Pick-Up Truck from this dinosaur.

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South Korea Full Year 2013

This is the most common electric car in South Korea, the Kia Ray EV

New Addition Edition 

Thanks to the korean company AutoDataBowl, we welcome a new EV Market here on EV Sales, South Korea.

This was a market that started recently (2012), but has been registering interesting numbers, with strong support from local authorities (1) and manufacturers.

In 2012 Kia launched the Ray EV for government agencies use and in that same year Renault-Samsung made a pilot launch of the Samsung SM3 ZE, known in other latitudes as Renault Fluence ZE, resulting in 548 electric cars registrations by the end of that year, divided in 531 Kias and 17 Samsungs.

The following year saw the continuation of the Kia Ray EV program, this time including car-sharing service companies, adding another 277 units to the tally, while the Samsung SM3 ZE and Chevrolet Spark EV started their retail career, with the Samsung sedan earning the Best Seller title at the end of the year.

Pl	Model	2013
1	Samsung SM3 ZE	398
2	Ria Ray EV	277
3	Chevrolet Spark EV	40
	TOTAL	715

(1) - There's a tax break for Electric Vehicles since 2012 and on top of that, the central and local governments grant other subsidies for EV's. Until the end of 2014, the central government will also subsidize the purchase of domestic chargers.

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EV Business Case Q1 2014

Norway Edition

Norway has been in the mainstream news lately for the otherworldly sales numbers of electric cars, and this is not a freak event, but something that has been consistently growing over the past few years, so i thought to look back and see how all this started.

This was always an EV-friendly country, even in the Second Age of the Electric Car, Norway always stood in the front of the electric car scene, with sales in the high three digits per year of cars like the Citröen Saxo Electrique, Peugeot 106 Electrique, REVA or the homegrown Kewet/Buddy EV.

Citröen Saxo Electrique

With the end of the Second Age, sales dropped to just 133 units in 2004 and 165 in 2005, with a slight increase in the following years (352 units in '06 and 321 in '07), but the Kewet/Buddy EV, the electric best seller at the time, looked more like a cartoon than a car, while also being slow and lacking modern car comforts.

Buddy EV

Despite that, sales started to grow, reaching 567 units in 2008, with the Buddy EV (209 sales) and Think City (183) as the major players.

Tesla Roadster

The next year one important car landed, it wasn't a best seller but the few units of the Tesla Roadster started to change people's minds and proved that electric cars could be fast, fun and something you actually wanted to own.

In 2010 sales (733 units) reached levels of the previous Second Age, showing that two of the three stakeholders (Consumers and Government) were ready for electric cars, now it was time for Car Manufacturers to step ahead and sell electric cars that appealed to consumers with a reasonable price to go along with it.

2011 was the first year of the current saga, 2.243 units were sold, reaching an EV share of 1,6% (The first time electrics cars passed the 1% barrier anywhere), with the Mitsubishi I-Miev winning the Electric Best Seller title, with 1.050 registrations and reclaiming for itself also the Best Selling City Car title, another first for a plug-in car.

Mitsubishi I-Miev

Things really took off in following year with the Nissan Leaf selling 2.298 units, pulling the market up to 4.700 units and 3,12% EV share, with regular appearances in the general Top 20 for the japanese hatch.

Nissan Leaf

2013 is (Modern) History: Sales skyrocketing and a First in September, the Tesla Model S winning the Best Selling Car title, all categories included, for the first time ever!

For 2014 the EV Share is at 16% and we seem to have reached a tipping point where electric cars have entered the minds of mainstream consumers as just another option besides gas and diesel, instead of a weird thing made for tree-huggers.  

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Luxembourg & Others 2012

Yes, you have read it right, this about sales in 2012, but i believe the sales data i've stumbled a few days ago is worth noting, as they come from countries out of the usual Green Car Media focus. To me it's the first insight into their plug-in sales and i believe it is also the first time they go public.

Here they go:

Luxembourg

The highest waged country in the EU registered 85 plug-in cars in 2012 with Renault leading the charge.

Pl	Model	2012
1	Renault Kangoo ZE	23
2	Opel Ampera / Chev. Volt	20
3	Citröen C-Zero	20
4	Renault Fluence ZE	9
5 6	Fisker Karma Mia Electric	2 1

Slovenia

The PSA (Peugeot and Citröen) brands did a lot to push EV's in Central and Eastern Europe, here's another proof of that.

Pl	Model	2012
1	Citröen C-Zero	16
2	Opel Ampera	9
3	Nissan Leaf	2

Slovakia

Just 6 units were registered in 2012 here, when in neighboring Czech Rep. 98 units were sold that year. 

Pl	Model	2012
1	Opel Ampera	4
2	Citröen C-Zero	2

Hungary

Again Opel and Citröen testing the waters for plug-ins here.

Pl	Model	2012
1	Opel Ampera	9
2	Citröen C-Zero	5
3	Nissan Leaf	2

Final mention for Turkey, 92 Renault Fluence ZE were sold in 2012 there, a small drop in the general Turkish market, but nevertheless it was enough to make it one of the top markets for the french sedan.

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