Before The Flood - The Film, Renewables and EV's

While watching "Before the Flood", for a moment i had a sense of deja vu, as in some points it reminded me of another film, the 2006 An Inconvenient Truth,  excluding narrative and cinematology (Actual word) details, the fact is that the essence of both is the same: 

Climate Change and urgence to cope with it.

Well, after 10 years, has anything changed?

To answer that, we have to rewind time even further.

1. Kyoto Protocol

Following the 90's global warming concerns, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997, with the objective to reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, with 192 countries currently now part of it. Only...It is non-binding for most countries, and also the USA, which accounted for 36% of emissions in 1990, signed the agreement but hasn't put it into practice, in fact things got worse in 2011, when Canada, Japan and Russia stated they would not take on Kyoto targets anymore.

In short, a lot of good intentions, but not a lot done in practice.

2. The Lost Years

The end of the Second Age of the Electric Car, in 2002, signaled also a slowdown in the cost reduction of Renewables, in fact we can say that the following 6 to 7 years after 2002 were lost to Green Tech, because of a hostile Political and Economical environment.   

 3. Back to Business

The year 2009 signaled a significant drop in Solar Power cost while at the same time the Third Age of the Electric Car started, leading to the point where we are now, Renewables and Electric Cars are the new Cool (Kudos Tesla) and ready to go into the mainstream business.

"Without time", some would say, as the four hottest years on record all happened after 2009, and 2015 was the hottest year ever, with the global climate giving its first signs of significant change, time seems in deed to be running out.

And that leads us to...

4. USA - The Lesser Evil Choice

Unlike what happened in the past, think around the year 2000, when the USA were a leader in Green Energy Tech, now that role belongs to Renewable Superpower China (#1 on EV's too), the choice US voters will make in a few days will still have an impact on the success of we how will tame Climate Change.

Regardless of what one might think regarding of each candidate (How did they managed to choose so poorly?), the fact is that US citizens have to choose between one of them, and this useful article helps to have an insight of what the outcome will be if one or the other gets elected regarding Climate Change.

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Is it possible to go 100% EV?

"Is it possible to go 100% Electric?" - It was a question i made myself a few months back, as i wandered of the feasibility of that endeavor, having one electric car is easy, when you have a gas/diesel vehicle as a second choice for longer trips, but what about going all electric? 

To get the answer, i have started to register my family daily trips, based on the assumption that we would have a smaller car, for commutes and other short distances, in this case the car chosen would be a Renault Zoe, while for longer distances, the choice would necessarily be a larger car, with a longer range (Think Chevrolet Bolt, Leaf II), with the hypothetical choice being the Tesla Model 3.

To keep things safe in terms of range and usability, despite the Zoe having a 240 kms NEDC range, we would only consider it as having 120 kms range and the Model 3 some 250 kms, that way we would always would have a significant amount of extra-range for unexpected situations.

All trips were classified in one of four categories: 

* Commutes (20 kms or less);

* Small trips (Between 21 to 120 kms);

* Average trips (120 to 250 kms);

* Long trips (More than 250 kms).

The first two were considered suitable for both cars, while the larger ones were only considered fit for the Model 3.

Having registered the daily trips of our current ICE cars (One city car, other suited for longer trips) over a period of little more than three months, these were some conclusions we came to have:

City car "Zoe" 

- 81% of the trips were commutes, usually going to work, groceries, or other small trips around the neighborhood;

- 19% were small trips, usually going to traffic-congested Lisbon or other places where it would be hard to get easy parking;

The conclusion is the surprisingly high number of commutes, which is where the electric car feels most at ease, with no trips beyond 120 kms being made and no need for charging on the road. 

Is it possible to have an EV as a city car? YES, for my needs it is more than enough.

Larger car "Model 3"

- 22% of the travelling with the larger car were commutes, 48% were small trips, 22% average trips and only 9% were long trips;

With more diversified type of travelling, the Model 3 has a more challenging role to play, if commutes and small trips are nothing to scare a 250 kms range car, for average trips (121 - 250 kms), you have to make some calculations on the actual kilometers you will make on the trip and if there is fast charging along the road, Just in Case. 

The most challenging part of the equation are the longer, over 250 kms, travels.

We have made three and here are their (short) stories:

1 - Touring inland during one day, with 512 kms made. The first leg took 247 kms, mostly made on highway or mountain roads, at this stage the Model 3 would presumably be close to running empty of juice, but nothing to fear as there was a EVSE close and while we were touring the town, the car would have time to recharge just enough range to get into the Chademo Charger (Within a service station), little less than 100 kms away in the returning trip. Having reached the Chademo charger, we then would have to wait 45 minutes to an hour for the car battery to fill up (Or close), driving the remaining trip home without any range-anxiety. Unnecessary stops: One, at the Chademo charger/service station.

2 - Visiting Folks and family, 260 kms made. With the folks house some 230 kms away, that would't count as long-range-endangering-trip, but with other stops projected in the same day and part of the trip made on the highway, it could be a close call. Time to be resourceful then. While we were having lunch and putting conversation in place, the Model 3 would also have time to recover some juice in the domestic socket of my parents garage, enough to give those 20-30 kms needed for the next stops. Unnecessary stops: None, just needed to ask for a plug while the car was resting.

3 - Touring North, 321 kms made in day one. With a Chademo Charger (In the same service station as in 1) somewhere in the middle of the trip, we stopped to fill up the car during some 45 minutes, doing the rest of the travelling without range concerns. Unnecessary stops: One, at the Chademo charger/service station. 

Summarizing, 89% of all trips could have been done by an electric car like the Renault Zoe without a sweat, with that percentage growing to 97% with the Tesla Model 3.

Of the remaining 3%, they were also feasible, but they would involve charging outside your home and depend on Fast Charging and the waiting periods that come with them. Many people, like myself, would see it as minor inconveniences, but for others it would be a deal breaker.

A small note, during this period, i have realized that the two electric cars, one household type of families, might have a constraint: There will be times when both cars need overnight charging and if you usually only have one garage place and the other stays out, it could become tricky to charge both at the same time...  

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Italy June 2016

The Model S is becoming something of a phenomenon within the Italian EV Market

 
 Renault Zoe Shines in Slow Market

The Italian EV market continues stagnant, with June Sales at around 200 sales, down 22% regarding the same period of 2015, with YTD sales back to red, down 2% YoY.

Looking at the models ranking, the big news were the 26 units of the Renault Zoe, its best performance this year and the first time it won a Monthly Best Seller trophy in 2016, allowing it to jump three positions to #9, which is still a discrete position for the Second Best Selling EV last year.

Below in the ranking, the highlights go for two models that have little in common apart from the fact that both are BEV's: The Tesla Model S is experiencing its best year ever in Italy, with 21 units delivered in June, while the veteran Citröen C-Zero continues to impress, with 19 sales, allowing it to continue in Fourth, its highest place in the ranking since the #3 won back in 2012...

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BMW is in the lead, with 32% Share (Down 1%), followed by Nissan (19%, down 2%), while Volkswagen (14%) is stable in the Third position.

Pl	Italy	June	YTD	%	'15Pl
1	Nissan Leaf	15	277	19	1
2 3 4	BMW 330e e) BMW 225xe Act. Tourer Citröen C-Zero	15 20 19	203 183 114	14 13 8	N/A N/A 6
5 6	Volkswagen Golf GTE Tesla Model S	24 21	111 103	8 7	5 8
7 8	Renault Twizy e) Volkswagen Passat GTE e)	20 5	102 64	7 4	4 N/A
9 10	Renault Zoe Mercedes B250e	26 2	52 42	4 3	2 10
11 12 13 14 15 16	BMW X5 40e   e) Volvo V60 Plug-In e) Mitsu. Outlander PHEV e) Volkswagen e-Up! BMW i8    Peugeot iOn	5 5 1	40 36 30 27 23 16	3 2 2 2 2 1	11 16 7 12 13 22
17	Audi A3 e-Tron e)	5	15	1	17
18 19 20	BMW i3 Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia Smart Fortwo ED	1 2	12 5 3	1 0 0	3 17 9
21	Volkswagen e-Golf	1	2	0	19
22 22	Renault Kangoo ZE Ford Focus Electric		1 1	0 0	N/A 25
	TOTAL	187	1.462	100

e) Estimate

Source: greenstart.it; unrae.it

Note: I'm going for vacations for a week, but EVS is not stopping, during this Summer Chilling period, there will be three new articles, one reporting sales by Automotive Groups, the Second updating the population of EV's with Fast Charging capabilities, while the Third has the following title: "Is it possible to go 100% Electric?", a practical case based on my own driving patterns.

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China New EV Models - May 2016

The number of models arriving to the local EV market is becoming increasingly larger and it is becoming common for one or two models to land every passing month, so we've created a new column called "New Models", where we look at the rookies.

Roewe e950 - The PHEV version of the 950 barge sedan, it aims to duplicate in XL format the success of its e550 smaller brother, which is now at over 2.000 units per month. With a 11.8 kWh battery and 60 kms electric range, this Tesla Model S-sized car is geared to become the best-selling plug-in of its class.

Sales target: 750-1.000 units/month.

Maxus EG10 - Looking to explore a niche that BYD is neglecting, SAIC launched this EG10 large electric MPV / Van, a market with no competition in sight (BYD production constraints are leaving its T3 Van dry). With a powerful 204 hp engine and 150 kms range, it does have interesting specs for hotel shuttles and other fleet uses, but the question is: How big is that market?

Sales target: 200 units/month.

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Magazines

Last year i had the opportunity to discover and cooperate with the ReNew magazine, an Australian magazine focused on Renewables and other sustainable technologies, i found it truly interesting and educating, among other things, it provided tips on how making small changes in our day-to-day life to make an impact on the environment.

At the time, i wondered: "How is it possible that there isn't something like this in Europe?"

There is now, The Beam magazine has just started and is looking for readers and backers to continue running, check it out and give your thoughts to their team!

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Europe April 2016

Outlander PHEV Is Back 

The European EV market had more than 16.000 registrations in March, representing a 28% increase over April 2015, with the market set to surpass the 200.000 units by year end.

Looking at the Monthly Ranking:

#1 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – After a slow start, the Outlander PHEV is back at its usual self, winning its second consecutive Monthly Best Seller title, with 1.970 units, but YTD sales are down 12%, meaning that Mitsubishi hasn’t found a way to replace the average 300/400 units/month it had last year coming from the Dutch market. Although growing elsewhere, like Norway or Spain, the Japanese SUV will have a hard time to grow sales and remain #1 for a long time.

#2 Renault Zoe – In its best sales streak since it started, back in 2012, April signaled the 8^th consecutive time the French hatch sold more than 1.000 units, with 1.959 units, with Renault finally trying to sell actively the car, including batteries in the initial price and providing friendly discounts, this is one EV with good prospects in the near future, will it get back to #1 soon?

#3 Nissan Leaf – With the availability bottlenecks of the 30kWh part of the past, sales of the Japanese hatch were up 77% in April, with 3 out of 4 Leaf belonging to the extended-range version. With 1.860 units registered last month, one wonders for how long will the Nissan all-electric model remain in the podium, as longer range BEV’s (New BMW i3, 2017 Opel Ampera-e…) might sway away buyers from the most common EV in the world.

#4 VW Golf GTE – Thanks to the Norwegian result (602 units sold there), Volkswagen’s sporty hatch managed to reach positive ground (Up 12% YoY) in April, with 1.225 units, this recent turn of Norway to PHEV’s was fundamental to offset the sales drought in the Netherlands and continue to improve on the 2015 performance.

#5 VW Passat GTE – The surprise of the month, VW’s midsize plug-in offering managed to reach the four-digit sales area last month, with 1.012 units, a year best, with stringent emission legislation spreading across Europe, many fleet and middle-managers will switch their diesel-burners for this model, flying them through the highway and smashing the accelerator to the ground like if their future depended on it. A future Best Seller?

As you might have noticed, this post is different from usual, it is result of an agreement with CleanTechnica / EV Obsession, where this post is simultaneously published, i want to thank Zach for making this possible and we hope this will be continued in the future.   

Year-To-Date Ranking

Looking at the YTD ranking, the Mitsu Outlander PHEV is firm at the highest place in the ranking, with two closes races behind it, the Nissan Leaf and Renault Zoe are running for Second Place and have only 30 units between them, while the Tesla Model S and VW Golf GTE are fighting for #4, with only 35 units separating them.

If the sprint for #2 is hard to predict what will happen, the race for #4 has a foreseeable behavior in the next couple of months: The Golf GTE will surpass the Model S in May, but then in June, the Californian model will make another 2.000-something selling month and return to the Fourth Position. It is almost so predictable as the English Premier League used to be…

Talking about Volkswagen, the german brand had a positive month, with the e-Golf up one position to #8, like the Passat GTE, also up one position to #10, while in the MPV class there is an interesting race between the leader Mercedes B250e (239 units, up one position to #16), and the #20 BMW 225xe Active Tourer, with a record month, with 292 units.

Looking at the brands ranking, the trophy bearer, Volkswagen (16%, up 1%) is holding Renault (15% share) at bay, while in Third we have Nissan, with 13% (Down 1%), trying to keep the #4 Mitsubishi (13%) and #5 BMW (12%) outside the podium.

And now a new feature on EV Sales...

...And for those who prefer the old format:

Pl	Europe	April	2016	%	'15Pl
1	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	1.970	8.376	13	1
2	Nissan Leaf	1.860	7.827	12	5
3	Renault Zoe	1.959	7.797	12	2
4	Tesla Model S	768	4.315	7	4
5	Volkswagen Golf GTE	1.225	4.280	7	3
6	BMW i3	859	3.492	5	6
7	Volvo XC90 T8	953	3.466	5	18
8	Volkswagen e-Golf	690	2.907	4	4
9 10	Audi A3 e-Tron Volkswagen Passat GTE	575 1.012	2.852 2.480	4 4	7 12
11 12	BMW X5 40e Mercedes C350e	497 258	2.073 1.518	3 2	22 11
13	Renault Kangoo ZE	374	1.320	2	13
14	Kia Soul EV	325	1.194	2	10
15	Volvo V60 Plug-In	243	1.145	2	9
16 17 18 19 20	Mercedes B250e Porsche Cayenne Plug-In BMW 330e Volkswagen e-Up! BMW 225xe Active Tourer	239 184 339 258 279	956 927 898 865 856	1 1 1 1 1	17 14 37 16 31
	TOTAL	16.323	65.218

Which format do you like best?

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BYD - 10.000 Electric Buses

10.000th BYD Electric Bus

Sometimes readers ask for Bus sales numbers, but unfortunately there is little to none available data in that category, so whenever something like this comes up, EV Sales is ready to report and satisfy the heavy vehicle niche...

BYD builds its 10.000th pure electric bus

Hat tip to samochodyelektryczne.org

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Tesla Model 3 - The Reservation Game

I'll take the red one, please

Something disruptive and Game Changing is happening with the Tesla Model 3 reservations, after the initial store craze and presentation, one would think that the reservations rhythm would slow down.

Not so, as you can see here, the numbers just keep on piling up, with no prospects of slowing down, at this point, we might already be above the 300.000 reservations, which is close to the total number of all-electric cars sold last year! 

Yours truly is one of the new players of this Reservation-Game, Isabel and Pedro, your creature(s) will have company soon(ish).

And now the waiting begins...

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EAFO Is Live

Over the past months, i have cooperated in the making of the European Alternative Fuels Observatory, a portal which aims to include all the relevant information regarding Alternative Fuels in Europe, namely Electric Vehicles.

After a long time coming, it is with pride that we can announce that the website is now live!

There you will find information on registrations, infrastructure and incentives, among other topics, for the moment it is focused on electricity, but the goal is to expand information to hydrogen and Natural Gas in a later stage.

In fact, this is not the end of a journey, but the first stage, with time we aim to improve the quality and quantity of the information provided and help local entities (Governments, etc) to promote a more sustainable mobility to citizens. 

This endeavor also helps EV Sales, as the quality of sales data presented in the countries that are part of the EAFO project, will also help improve EV Sales data over time, especially in the case of a certain "Moby-Dick"...    ;)

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Help Needed

Dear readers, as EV Sales grows, so does the need for more comprehensive and accurate data, on top of that, plug-ins are spreading to more and more countries and sometimes is difficult to detect and/or extract data from these new markets, so i'm calling for your help, if you can get EV sales data from the below markets, please send me an email (efeelblog@gmail.com), so that we can put them on the map and "Spread the Word". Your help can be anonymous if you want and will be greatly appreciated.

Austria

Micky has been doing a major effort reporting Austrian EV Sales in its My Ampera Blog, but PHEV's are still uncharted territory in that market, if anyone has data on Plug-in hybrids in Austria your help would be much appreciated :)

Japan

Data is available on some models, but lacking regular data on others, like the Nissan e-NV200 or  imports, etc, which prevents us from getting a full picture of the EV Scene;

UK

One of EV Sales "Moby Dick's", there's regular data on global volumes from SMMT, but data from individual models is sparse and comes with several months delay, with this market growing by the day (It was the 6th largest this January), it becomes more and more important to know what is going on here.

India

There is some data regarding the Mahindra Reva E2O performance here, but it is not a regular source and it misses the rest of the electric market, now that the Indian market is seriously considering EV's, it would be great if we could start following this market.

South Korea

There isn't a regular source for data regarding this market, which is a shame considering there are several models selling there (Kia Soul EV, Samsung SM3 ZE, Chevrolet Spark EV, etc) and this is a market with great growth potential. If anyone has access to regular detailed data for South Korea, could you please contact me.

Australia

Another market with tremendous growth potential, where numbers still come randomly, which is a shame, now that sales are tripling, this should be one of the markets to follow more closely.

Hong Kong, Slovakia and Poland

There's only monthly data by dedicated models, if anyone has access to the full data, including ICE-based plug-ins, please contact me;


Other Markets that require data source:

Luxembourg, Romania, South Africa, Bulgaria, Brazil, Turkey, Costa Rica and Mexico

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