Ukraine Buses - February 2017

Electron 100% Electric Bus

Picking up on the 2016 Top 10 Countries in the EV Revolution post, where some readers were surprised by the relevance of the Ukranian EV Miracle, on the next day the article was published, it came to my knowledge that the local EV Revolution is not confined to passenger cars, but also to Buses, as the local Electron company started to make BEV Buses (With 240kms range(!)), alongside Trams and Trolleybuses.

This year alone, they already delivered 25 eBuses, if this sales trend continues, they might become one of the leading eBuses brands in Europe this year.

With this, it seems the Ukraine could be even higher in the ranking for 2017...

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China PHEV Buses 2016

Complementing this report, which focused solely on BEV Buses, with PHEV sales data now in hand, we have a clearer picture of where the eBuses market is going in China, while BEV buses continued to grow in 2016, albeit in a more moderate rate, last year PHEV buses have actually seen their sales decrease.

Has PHEV technology peaked in 2015, like HEVs did in 2013?

China Buses by Technology

			2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
		BEV	1904	1672	12760	94260	115700
		PHEV	313	2637	16500	23051	19376
		HEV	5825	6111	797

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(China) Buses & Batteries 2016

With Chinese brands and market responsible for more than 95% of the global BEV Buses market, basically speaking of eBuses is synonymous with the Chinese market, so i have decided to recover the "China Buses" report and add a few lines regarding the other 5% of the market below.

Electric Buses Sales in China

Pl	Brand	2016
1	Yutong	21.428
2	BYD	14.903
3	Nanjing	7.921
4	Zuhai e)	6.000
5	Hunan	3.410

e) Estimate

Ending a series of articles on China, i left the juiciest of them to the end, Electric Buses.

In the end of 2015, China had 170.000 of the 173.000 ebuses circulating in the World. That's right, 98% of them were in zooming in The Big Red Giant, which i think says it all about the role of that country on the change happening towards eMobility.

For more on how that came to be, please click here.

But, what about in 2016?

Just focusing on all-electric Buses, sales grew to 115.700 units in 2016, which represents some 20% market share, with Yutong still in the lead, followed by BYD and Nanjing.with the first growing 36% YoY and the second more than 50%.

With this kind of growth and market share, it is expected that China goes all-electric in this category in less than 10 years, maybe five, so it is no wonder that large cities like Shenzen are already envisioning an all-electric 15.000 fleet of Buses...In 2017.

Regarding Batteries, CATL produced 5.250 MWh of batteries for Yutong Buses, while BYD added 4.828 MWh of batteries to its already impressive score (4.020 MWh) in passenger cars, ending the year with an amazing 8.848 MWh of batteries.


Source: http://m.nev.ofweek.com/2017-01/ART-71011-8420-30092804.html


And now a few words on the Europe eBuses scene, fleet numbers are in the hundreds, with BEV sales being leaded by BYD (Alone or with ADL help) and the Polish brand Solaris. Other important players are VDL and Volvo, both betting more on PHEVs.

In the USA, the market is even smaller, with BYD being the major driving force there, owning more than half of the market.

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China Buses Overview (Through 2010 to 2015)

A lot has been said about the ADL/BYD delivery of 51 Electric Buses in London, said to be the largest fleet in Europe, or the famed BYD buses plant in Lancaster - California, said to have a production target of 1.000 units/year, although these are positive signs that things are moving in the right direction, these numbers are dwarfed by what's going on in China...

Remember a certain article where this topic was scratched at the surface? Even then the numbers seemed huge, didn't they? 

Now, with some more detailed data, i can document the extraordinary and almost unbelievable growth that electric Buses registrations are experiencing in China:

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
BEV	523	1136	1904	1672	12760	94260
PHEV		1478	313	2637	16500	23051
HEV	3804	2825	5825	6111	797

It's hard to believe on these staggering numbers, isn't it?

And harder still when you read this little piece of info...

Anyway, assuming the numbers are real, it is even more outlandish the fact that BYD, that many believe to be the Master on Electric Buses, was actually only the Sixth Largest (5.631 units) plug-in Bus maker in China, behind Yutong (15.369), Nanjing KL (9.012), Zhongtong (8.904), Suzhou KL (7.115) and Dongfeng (5.761) and there are at least 15 Chinese Electric Bus makers, all having sold above 100 units in 2015. 

If anyone wishes to confirm or rebate these arguments, please do so, as it would help a lot to have a better picture of what's going on here.

Off-topic: And to think Volvo, the largest plug-in Bus maker in Europe, has yet to reach the 1.000 units production mark... 

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