New Models for 2017 (& their impact)

A Segment (City Cars)


Renault Twingo ZE

With the five best selling models in this segment coming from China, the upcoming Smart ForTwo / ForFour ED models and Renault Twingo ZE will have a hard time to reach a Podium seat, let alone winning this class, so 2017 should be decided between the Chinese models, maybe between a Zotye model and the Chery eQ.

B Segment (Subcompacts)

Nissan Micra

The promised EV version of the new Nissan Micra will face stiff competition next year, starting with its Renault Zoe relative, with the current Best Seller, the BMW i3, expected to receive a facelift and yet another battery upgrade, the Japanese hatch won't be able to reach these two, but it could have a small shot at stealing the Third Place from the BAIC E-Series.

C Segment (Compacts)

Toyota Prius Prime

The heart of the market will be a hard fought battleground, with plenty of new models with Best Seller ambitions, like the Chevrolet Bolt/Opel Ampera-e (After a long thought, i have decided to place it here, as it is more than just an MPV and more spacious than B-Segment cars), the facelifted Nissan Leaf, the Toyota Prius Prime...Without forgetting the Chinese outsiders (BYD Qin, BAIC EU260).

With such strong competitors, one thing is certain, whoever wins this class, will surely win also the 2017 Best Selling EV title.

D Segment (Midsize)

Tesla Model 3

The Next Big Thing, the EV that everyone is talking about, will land in 2017, but mass production will only start in the following year, so the Tesla Model 3 won't make a big impact this year. The Ford Fusion Energi will probably collect another Best Seller title in 2017, but it will have to keep an eye on the German midsizers, particularly the increasingly successful BMW 330e.

E Segment (Full Size)

BMW 530e

The German Autobahn-bruisers finally grew a (Small) plug, with the recent Mercedes E350e and future BMW 530e trying to put a fight to the all-conquering Tesla Model S, but if they reach one fifth of the sales of the American, it will be a job well done. 

As for the big Volvo's, the S/V90 PHEV will be happy if they beat the German models.

F Segment (Full Size Luxury)

Porsche Panamera

A lot of new stuff here, we will have an upgraded Mercedes S500e, the recent BMW 740e, the new Porsche Panamera PHEV, Cadillac CT6 PHEV, the upcoming Audi A8 PHEV...

If this year the title is headed for the Mercedes, next year it will be an open question, please make your bets...

SUV / CUV

BYD Song EV

After a slew of new plug-in SUV's and Crossovers in 2016, this year seems quieter, the current leaders BYD Tang and Outlander PHEV will probably be beaten by a Tesla Model X in full swing, while the important BYD Song and Yuan Crossovers will also make an impact in the class, possibly running for a Top 5 spot.

MPV / Minivans

Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid

The Pacifica Hybrid has a huge sales potential, but will depend on the FCA will to sell and make it, if the oldtimer BYD e6 sustains momentum in 2017 (It has sold some 20k in '16), then the Chrysler won't reach the Best Seller status, but it should be enough to run head-to-head with the BMW 225xe Active Tourer for Second Place, all while leaving the Ford C-Max Energi out of the Podium.

LCV / Vans

Nissan e-NV200

In a segment dominated by just two models, the Renault Kangoo ZE and Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia, and with both receiving the same upgraded battery (Around 40 kWh), things should remain the same as in 2016, with both models running against each other for this class title.

Sports Cars / Convertibles

BMW i8 Spyder

After putting to shame the little competition it had over these last three years, the BMW i8 is almost synonymous with this category, for 2017 it is said to receive some upgrades, namely a 10 kWh battery, more power and the long awaited Spyder version.

Pick-up Trucks

Tesla Model T????

With the end of the Mitsubishi Minicab Miev Truck, of which were made some 1.000 units over a four year span, this highly profitable class is now orphan of plug-ins, with the Best Selling Electric Pick-up Truck still dating back for the Dinosaur Era (Ford Ranger EV, with 1.705 units delivered from 1998 to 2002).

 It seems we all have to wait for Tesla to shake things up with a Tesla Model T in 2020...

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2016 Forecasts - Q3 Update

In the beginning of the year, i published some forecasts regarding 2016 that me and my partners from EV Volumes made, let's see how they are, now that we are at three quarters of the year:

2016 Forecasts Jose Roland Viktor 1) World Total 850.000 850.000 N/A 2) World #1 BYD Tang Mit. Outlander PHEV N/A 3) China Total 400.000 350.000 350.000 4) China #1 BYD Tang BYD Tang BYD Tang 5) USA Total 175.000 170.000 170.000 6) USA #1 Chevrolet Volt Chevrolet Volt Tesla Model S 7) Japan Total 30.000 23.000 38.000 8) Japan #1 Nissan Leaf Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV 9) Europe Total 250.000 280.000 280.000 10) Europe #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV 11) Netherlands T. 27.500 35.000 35.000 12) Netherlands #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV 13) Norway Total 45.000 50.000 50.000 14) Norway #1 Volkswagen e-Golf Volkswagen e-Golf Volkswagen e-Golf 15) UK Total 40.000 40.000 45.000 16) UK #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV 17) France Total 37.500 42.000 40.000 18) France #1 Renault Zoe Renault Zoe Renault Zoe 19) Germany Total 37.500 44.000 35.000 20) Germany #1 VW Passat GTE Kia Soul EV Kia Soul EV

1) With registrations at over 510k now and sales up 45% YoY, we get some 800k...Not that far off, then.

2) Nissan Leaf is #1 right now, but the difference to the Tesla Model S is minimal, and with the Californian at full speed, we should see the Model S repeat last year win. 

3) Sales are at 225k, and considering the end of the year peak, we should see it reach 400k by year end. One for me.

4) BYD Tang is #1, with 19k, with the #2 (BYD Qin) 8k behind...Enough said. One for each.

5) The US market is growing 33%, which is leading to a 154k total number, which is 16k below expected. Then again, the Chevy Bolt  and Prius Prime might still pull the market up in the last minute, right?

6) With the Model S at 20k and the Chevrolet Volt at 16k, i believe Tesla has this one secured. One for Viktor.

7) With Japan down 2%, they are set to a 25k total number. One for Roland.

8) With the Leaf at 11k and the Outlander PHEV at 4k, Nissan's hatch has 99% probability of winning the 2016 title. One for me.

9) The European EV Market is set to end at around 240k, a bit below our forecasts.

10) With the Zoe at 16k, the Outlander PHEV at 15k and the Leaf around 13k, it is too early to give a sure winner, but at the moment the Zoe is the favorite.

11) Sales are down 54%(!), so the total number should be around 15-20k, much lower than our forecasts.

12) Another big miss, right now the most likely Best Sellers are the Tesla Model S or the Volvo XC90 T8.

13) I remember we had some difficulty doing this forecast, as we were afraid to be too conservative, but with growth at just 32%, the market is going according to our forecasts, for 45k-50k by year end. One for all.

14) The VW e-Golf might still be #1, but for now, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is ahead.

15) The UK market is up some 42% and headed to some 40k, it seems Brexit hasn't impacted the EV Market growth. One for me and Roland.

16) The Outlander PHEV will be #1 with 75% certainty, but the Mercedes C350e might still surprise. One for all.

17) The French EV market is up 38%, leading to some 39k. One for Viktor.

18) No surprises here, the Renault Zoe has 8k, the #2 Nissan Leaf has 3k. One for all.

19) Looking just at the growth rate (20%), this market would go for some 30k, but with the recent surge, expect an increase in sales, so expect sales to end between 30k to 40k. 

20) Quite frankly, anything can happen, the Renault Zoe is the current leader, but the BMW i3 is coming in strong, and even the Kia Soul EV might come out of nowhere and steal the show at the last minute.

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Upcoming BEV Arrivals (Updated)

2017 Opel Ampera-e

Discussing the upcoming Paris Auto Show with one of EVS readers, we have reached a timeline for a number of upcoming BEV models. Now updated with some more novelties for the next 18 months:

BAIC EH400 large sedan - H1 2017;

BYD Yuan & Song SUV's - Plug-in (BEV?) versions between Q4 2016 and Q1 2017;

Chevrolet Bolt / Opel Ampera-e - November symbolic arrival, deliveries ramp-up in December;

Opel version arrival in April in selected markets, dissemination across the continent in the 3/4 following months; 

Cowin C3R EV hatchback - Q4 2016;

Faraday Future SUV - Somewhere in the second half of 2017, we will see the first production units being delivered;

2017 Ford Focus Electric - Arrival December 2016, full scale production (100 units?) afterwards;

JAC iEV6E hatchback - Q4 2016;

Honda Clarity BEV - Second Half of 2017;

2018 Hyundai Ioniq BEV (40 kWh?) - Late 2017;

2017 Kia Soul EV (36 kWh) - January 2017;

2017 Nissan Leaf (40kWh battery) - LA Autoshow debut(?), December 2016 arrival, full scale deliveries in January;

Nissan Leaf II - 3Q 2017;

Qiantu K50 Speedster - Second Half of 2017?

Renault Zoe 40 kWh - October symbolic arrival, ramp up in November, full scale deliveries in December;

Renault Twingo EV & Nissan B compact EV - Q1 2017?

2017 Smart ED - December 2016?

Tesla Model 3 - First symbolic deliveries in September 2017, rest of the year to fine tune production, with moderate production quantities and high level of QC. USA-destined units. 

Beginning of 2018, significant ramp up, mainly targeted to North America. 

Second half of 2018, full scale production for all markets.

2017 Volkswagen BEV's - Larger batteries to arrive in January 2017;

XPeng EV SUV - Late 2017, ramp up in 2018.

Is anyone missing?

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2016 Forecasts - Half Year Update

In the beginning of the year, i published some forecasts regarding 2016 that me and my partners from EV Volumes made, let's see how they are, now that we are at the middle of the year:

2016 Forecasts Jose Roland Viktor 1) World Total 850.000 850.000 N/A 2) World #1 BYD Tang Mit. Outlander PHEV N/A 3) China Total 400.000 350.000 350.000 4) China #1 BYD Tang BYD Tang BYD Tang 5) USA Total 175.000 170.000 170.000 6) USA #1 Chevrolet Volt Chevrolet Volt Tesla Model S 7) Japan Total 30.000 23.000 38.000 8) Japan #1 Nissan Leaf Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV 9) Europe Total 250.000 280.000 280.000 10) Europe #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV 11) Netherlands T. 27.500 35.000 35.000 12) Netherlands #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV 13) Norway Total 45.000 50.000 50.000 14) Norway #1 Volkswagen e-Golf Volkswagen e-Golf Volkswagen e-Golf 15) UK Total 40.000 40.000 45.000 16) UK #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV 17) France Total 37.500 42.000 40.000 18) France #1 Renault Zoe Renault Zoe Renault Zoe 19) Germany Total 37.500 44.000 35.000 20) Germany #1 VW Passat GTE Kia Soul EV Kia Soul EV

1) With sales at 306k, sales are up 48%, so if we multiply last year sales by 1.48, we get 812k...Not that far off, then.

2) Nissan Leaf is #1 right now, with 27k, followed by the Tesla Model S (22k), BYD Tang (19k) and Outlander PHEV(15k). But i'm still betting on the Tang, it's the model with most growth potential.

3) Sales are up 118%, so multiplying last year total by 2.18, we get 440k, which is even better than our most optimistic forecasts... 

4) BYD Tang is #1, with 19k, with the #2 (BAIC E-Series) 9k behind...Enough said.

5) The US market is growing 18%, which is leading to a 136k total number, which is 34k below expected. Then again, the Chevy Bolt  and Prius Prime might still pull the market up, right?

6) With the Model S at 11k and the Chevrolet Volt at 10k, anything can still happen here, but i must say, at this point i Viktor got it right...

7) With Japan growing 22%, they are set to a 31k total number.

8) With the Leaf at 9k and the Outlander PHEV at 4k, Nissan's hatch has 90% probability of winning the 2016 title.

9) The European EV Market is growing at a 20% rate, so the final number will be around 233k, a bit below our forecasts.

10) With the Zoe, Outlander PHEV and Leaf all around 11k, it is too early to give a sure winner, but we were expecting more from the plug-in SUV...

11) Sales are down 61%(!), so the total number should be around 10-15k, much lower than our forecasts.

12) Another big miss, right now the most likely Best Sellers are the Tesla Model S, Volvo XC90 T8 or the BMW 330e.

13) I remember we had some difficulty doing this forecast, as we were afraid to be too conservative, but with growth at just 30%, the market is going for 45k by year end, within our forecasts.

14) The VW e-Golf is still #1, but not for long, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV seems unstoppable right now.

15) The UK market is up some 30% and headed to some 38k, now let's see how Brexit impacts the EV Market...

16) The Outlander PHEV will be #1 with 80% certainty, but the Mercedes C350e might still surprise.

17) The French EV market is up a healthy 53%, leading to some 42k, a win to Roland's forecast.

18) Renault Zoe has 7k, the #2 Nissan Leaf has 2k. 

19) Looking just at the growth rate (8%), it this market would go for some 30k, but incentives kicking in, expect a tidal wave of registrations, so the 44k of Roland seems perfectly possible.

20) Quite frankly, anything can happen, as nobody knows who will benefit most from the incentives, but my bet now would be the BMW i3, currently #2 and receiving new batteries just in time for the new incentives.

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2016 Forecasts

Me and my partners from EV Volumes, which  by the way, published some interesting graphs on the last Q4 Europe article, were discussing in this past week how 2016 would be in the EV World, with some forecasts for the main markets and models, and with some EV Sales readers asking for some forecasts here, we decided to put it on paper online and in a year from now we will see how much did we got it right.

2016 Forecasts	Jose	Roland	Viktor
World Total	850.000	850.000	N/A
World #1	BYD Tang	Mit. Outlander PHEV	N/A
China Total	400.000	350.000	350.000
China #1	BYD Tang	BYD Tang	BYD Tang
USA Total	175.000	170.000	170.000
USA #1	Chevrolet Volt	Chevrolet Volt	Tesla Model S
Japan Total	30.000	23.000	38.000
Japan #1	Nissan Leaf	Mit. Outlander PHEV	Mit. Outlander PHEV
Europe Total	250.000	280.000	280.000
Europe #1	Mit. Outlander PHEV	Mit. Outlander PHEV	Mit. Outlander PHEV
Netherlands T.	27.500	35.000	35.000
Netherlands #1	Mit. Outlander PHEV	Mit. Outlander PHEV	Mit. Outlander PHEV
Norway Total	45.000	50.000	50.000
Norway #1	Volkswagen e-Golf	Volkswagen e-Golf	Volkswagen e-Golf
UK Total	40.000	40.000	45.000
UK #1	Mit. Outlander PHEV	Mit. Outlander PHEV	Mit. Outlander PHEV
France Total	37.500	42.000	40.000
France #1	Renault Zoe	Renault Zoe	Renault Zoe
Germany Total	37.500	44.000	35.000
Germany #1	VW Passat GTE	Kia Soul EV	Kia Soul EV

A few comments, on these numbers, Roland thinks the Outlander PHEV will be the new Global #1, but only if they get the MY17 US launch right. Otherwise he thinks that it's Model S again. 

The same goes in the USA, Roland believes that the Volt will be able to beat the Model S, but isn't 100% sure on that, as a side note, Viktor is optimistic on the Chevy Bolt as he think that it will create an instant impact on the market once it lands later in the year.

Unlike my partners, i think the Nissan Leaf will have a good year in Japan, while Roland is pessimistic on the performance of the Japanese EV market.

Gathering consensus is the fact that The Netherlands will assist a sales slowdown regarding last year, unlike the other large EV markets in Europe.

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China 2016 Forecast

BYD Tang: 2016 Best Seller?

Based on the request of some readers, but also considering recent new model announcements and commitments of foreign brands to start producing their EV's in China, i found the need to write this post, looking into the future of the most dynamic EV market in the world.

This forecasting exercise will try to guess how the existing best selling models will behave, but also see how new models from the best selling brands will impact the market, and how foreign brands will behave.

2015 Top 5 Models

1. BYD Qin - 20.000 units. The reason for this 40% drop has to do with two factors: One, chinese consumers and therefore EV buyers, are shifting away from regular sedans to the more fashionable SUV category, and Two, BYD is still production-constrained, so for them is more profitable to make the Tang a priority;

2. Kandi Panda EV - 55.000 units. Unless Kandi starves the small city car production in profit of other future models, like the larger K30 sedan, this number is fairly attainable for the Panda EV, once again granting it the runner-up status in 2016;

3. BYD Tang - 75.000 units. Will BYD's current top-of-the range SUV finally reach its natural sales level? I guess so, and the numbers will not only place it as the Best Selling EV in China, but probably in the World...

4. BAIC E-Series EV - 22.000 units. A 35% sales increase is considered a moderate growth in this market, but this slower growth is related to increased competition in its segment, but also by the brand effort to go upmarket with new models, a trend that will define 2016 in this market;

5. Zotye Cloud EV - 25.000 units. This target might depend on Zotye's other models performance, as both the TT EV and the new Zhima E30 city car might steal sales from its best selling model. 

New Zotye E30

Incoming New Models

BYD Song - 25.000 units. The PHEV version will arrive early this year and will have time to develop production and reach significant numbers, which will depend on how much will BYD become production constrained;

BYD Yuan - 17.000 units. Following on the Song mid-size SUV footsteps, the Yuan will also have time to develop production and reach significant numbers, which will depend on how much will BYD be willing to make them;

BYD Ming - 3.000 units. The giant full-size SUV will arrive later in the year and will probably only reach its full production potential in 2017;

BYD T5 / T7 - 3.000 units. The upcoming delivery vehicles sales level will depend not only from BYD's installed capacity to make them, but also from the demand and fleet deals made in the meantime, so these numbers might end up very differently, be it much higher or lower than forecasted;

Kandi Cyclone - 20.000 units. The deliveries of the hatchback will depend in most part on which priorities will the brand have for 2016, be it fleet sales, then the Panda EV will have priority, or private sales, where the Cyclone will be playing a major role;

Kandi K30 sedan - 15.000 units. The deliveries of the upcoming sedan will depend in most part on which priorities will the brand have for 2016, be it fleet sales, then the Panda EV will have priority, or private sales, where the K30 will try to profit from the current trend of EV buyers shifting away from small-range city EV's to larger, more upmarket products;

BAIC D50 EV - 7.500 units. BAIC's new EV sedan is the result from the manufacturer efforts to go upmarket, it remains to be seen if it will succed with the same kind of success as it did with the E-Series EV;

Zotye Zhima E30 - 20.000 units. The sharply designed model, reminding you of a nice Smart/i3 mashup (The best-looking plug-wearing Zotye, in my view), has the mission to succeed to the E20 model, a vehicle now only sold under the Zhidou brand. Zotye has some big expectations for its new baby, but the current trend of private buyers going into larger, five seater models might undermine the career of the E30. 

Foreign Brands

Tesla - 10.000 units. The California-based manufacturer is by far the most successful foreign EV automaker operating in China, and the addition of the Model X will have an important role in build up the brand success, as Tesla's new model is in the intersection of two of the most important trends on this market: EV's and SUV's/Crossovers. The only question mark is, as many times with Tesla, product availability. 

Volvo - 5.000 units. For one to succeed in China, one must produce locally. And that's what Volvo started doing, with the S60L plug-in, with the swedish brand being one of the most committed to the plug-in scene, i would guess that they will build up production to a point where availability isn't a problem. 

BMW - 3.000 units. The 530Le is being made in small numbers and it might stay that way, unfortunately, as a locally produced X5 PHEV would sell like hot cakes;

Mercedes - 3.000 units. It seems the C350e will start to be made locally, if it does, it will be a tremendous opportunity for the brand, but considering the current policy of Mercedes regarding plug-ins, don't expect high numbers... 

Cadillac - 2.000 units. The american brand says it will base its production of CT6 plug-ins in China, so one can only expect a strong push of that model there, but the question is, even if they push sales of the extended-range CT6, will (rich) chinese buyers spend their checks in a Cadillac EV?

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New models for 2016

Although technically started in 2015, it will be this year that the X will make an impact

With the Tesla Model 3 and Nissan Leaf II relegated to 2017, this years only disruptive model, the Chevrolet Bolt, will be available towards the end of the year, until then, the only significant novelties will come from China, with BYD continuing to launch new plug-ins, taking full profit of the current sales trend in China (SUV's and EV's). Volkswagen can also ride the same wave, if they decide to make the Tiguan GTE there. 

Chevrolet Bolt

This original MPV is said to have a 200 mi range, cost 38.000$  AND will be exported to selected markets.

As deliveries are only expected in the last quarter (December?) of the year, expect only a fraction (1.000 units?) of sales to delivered in 2016.

BYD Song PHEV

After the resounding success of the Tang, this is the second plug-in hybrid SUV coming from BYD.

The mid-size Crossover Song PHEV version will arrive in the First Quarter (March?) of the year, will cost around 44.000$ and will hit 0-100 kms/h in 4.9 seconds.

Once in cruising production level, i would say some 4.000 units will be sold, so i would guess a sales target of some 25.000 units for this year.

BYD Yuan PHEV

Next in line to appear in the BYD EV factory is the Yuan, a compact crossover set to launch in the first half of the year.

With AWD and an announced 4.9s from 0 to 100 kms/hour, this will be one mighty small SUV... 

I would guess the same production level as the Song, so the sales target will be around 17.000 units.

VW Tiguan GTE

This is a model VW has to get it right in order to ride the current trends of SUV's coupled with PHEV powertrains, 

Sharing the GTE specs with its Golf and Passat relatives, this will be the first test to see if VW is really supporting plug-ins, if it is, then it must sell in North America and China (with local production).

Sales target in Europe: 7.000 units

North America(?) - 4.000 units

China(???) - Lots of them. VW sells 250.000 Tiguans per year in China...

Other plug-in models will land this year, with the vast majority of them being of the PHEV variety:

BMW 330e

BMW 530e

BMW 740e

Cadillac CT6 PHEV

Chrysler Minivan PHEV

Hyundai Ioniq

Kia Optima PHEV

Mercedes E500e

New Smart Fortwo ED / Forfour ED

Volvo S90 T8 PHEV

A mention to two models that started their career in 2015, but will gain volume only this year:

Chevrolet Volt II - I would say that it will reach some 4.000 units/ month, so a sales target of 48.000 units shouldn't go far from reality;

Tesla Model X - Production ramp up will be gradual, so i would guess that the final deliveries target for the Crossover will be around 25k to 30k units.

As a fun exercise, let's look back at predictions made earlier regarding 2015:

- Renault-Nissan sales prediction: 95.000 units. Miss: Around 75k.

- Mitsubishi sales prediction: 50.000. Hit: Around 46k.

- Tesla sales prediction: 70 to 50.000. Hit, but the 50.000 units will be almost all Model S.

- Chevrolet sales prediction: 35.000. Big Miss, there were little more than 20k units sold. Reason: Limited availability of the Second Gen Volt.

- Ford sales prediction: 23.000. Hit. Around 21k.

- Toyota sales prediction: 13.000. Big Miss: 6.500 units, the Prius Plug-In performed even worse than expected.

- BYD sales prediction: 35.000. Big Miss: Around 60.000 units, almost double!

- BMW sales prediction: 30.000. Hit: Around 33.000 units, although the X5 plug-in won't reach the predicted 5.000 sales.

- Geely Group (Kandi + Volvo) sales prediction: 30.000. Hit: Around 33.000 units, although the XC90 plug-in won't reache the predicted 5.000 sales.

- Volkswagen sales prediction: 25.000. Miss: Around 37.000 units, both the Golf GTE and e-Golf sales were underestimated.

- Daimler Group (Mercedes + Smart) sales prediction: 20.000. Miss: 15.000 units. Mercedes sales were on target (11k), but Smart was a big miss, the 4k sold are half of what was expected (8k).

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