China PHEV Buses 2016

Complementing this report, which focused solely on BEV Buses, with PHEV sales data now in hand, we have a clearer picture of where the eBuses market is going in China, while BEV buses continued to grow in 2016, albeit in a more moderate rate, last year PHEV buses have actually seen their sales decrease.

Has PHEV technology peaked in 2015, like HEVs did in 2013?

China Buses by Technology

			2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
		BEV	1904	1672	12760	94260	115700
		PHEV	313	2637	16500	23051	19376
		HEV	5825	6111	797

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(China) Buses & Batteries 2016

With Chinese brands and market responsible for more than 95% of the global BEV Buses market, basically speaking of eBuses is synonymous with the Chinese market, so i have decided to recover the "China Buses" report and add a few lines regarding the other 5% of the market below.

Electric Buses Sales in China

Pl	Brand	2016
1	Yutong	21.428
2	BYD	14.903
3	Nanjing	7.921
4	Zuhai e)	6.000
5	Hunan	3.410

e) Estimate

Ending a series of articles on China, i left the juiciest of them to the end, Electric Buses.

In the end of 2015, China had 170.000 of the 173.000 ebuses circulating in the World. That's right, 98% of them were in zooming in The Big Red Giant, which i think says it all about the role of that country on the change happening towards eMobility.

For more on how that came to be, please click here.

But, what about in 2016?

Just focusing on all-electric Buses, sales grew to 115.700 units in 2016, which represents some 20% market share, with Yutong still in the lead, followed by BYD and Nanjing.with the first growing 36% YoY and the second more than 50%.

With this kind of growth and market share, it is expected that China goes all-electric in this category in less than 10 years, maybe five, so it is no wonder that large cities like Shenzen are already envisioning an all-electric 15.000 fleet of Buses...In 2017.

Regarding Batteries, CATL produced 5.250 MWh of batteries for Yutong Buses, while BYD added 4.828 MWh of batteries to its already impressive score (4.020 MWh) in passenger cars, ending the year with an amazing 8.848 MWh of batteries.


Source: http://m.nev.ofweek.com/2017-01/ART-71011-8420-30092804.html


And now a few words on the Europe eBuses scene, fleet numbers are in the hundreds, with BEV sales being leaded by BYD (Alone or with ADL help) and the Polish brand Solaris. Other important players are VDL and Volvo, both betting more on PHEVs.

In the USA, the market is even smaller, with BYD being the major driving force there, owning more than half of the market.

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China New Models - December 2016

This month we had four models landing in the Chinese EV market, we will skip the compliance Horki 300E and FAW Junpai A70E, focusing on the much more important BAIC EC180 and Haima @3 (Yes, no typo, it is "@3").

BAIC EC180 - Beijing Auto continues with their plan to leave BYD shadow and become a force to be reckoned with, by launching their first city car (Interestingly, a segment where BYD is absent...), the EC180, where pragmatically, "E" is for Electric, "C" for City, and "180", for the range it has. So, another 180 kms range electric city car. But here is where things get interesting, this is the first dedicated EV from Beijing Auto, the first of many, according to the brand, and also the first to have input from LeEco, a company known for its ambitious plans regarding eMobility. So, aside from the funky exterior, are we looking at a revolution in this class? No, it is one of the best, but the electric engine does a puny 40 hp and the interiors are not something worthy to write about, while a Chery EQ has better specs (56 hp, 200kms range). Still, the model has landed with a record 4.128 units, so it means BAIC is betting heavily on the car and hopes to make the Best Seller of 2017.

Haima @3 - While the Big Boys (BYD, BAIC, Geely...) are launching EV's as plan to ultimately conquer the World, smaller Chinese manufacturers like Haima have to change into plug-ins because the Government says so. Unfortunately, money is tight and it shows in their first EV models, hip name aside, the Haima @3 is a rehash of its M3 sedan (Think Toyota Corolla), with 95 hp, 120 kms max. speed and 200 kms range. And no fast-charging. With these below-average specs and uh...Distinctive looks, one would think it would be a slow seller, not so, as in its debut month in registered 381 units. Not BAIC EC180 earth-shattering numbers, but a respectable start for a model coming from a carmaker like Haima.

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China December 2016 (Updated)

Geely Emgrand EV

Newcomers Month

The Chinese market had 44.874 new EV's in December, far from the 60.000 expected by analysts, but still up 27% YoY, pulling the Plug-in Market Share to a record 1.45%, above the USA (0.9%) and Europe (1.3%).

Despite the “disappointing” plateauing in December, which a bit like expecting that Usain Bolt breaks the 0-100 meters World Record every time he goes on track, looking at the big picture, the 351.861 units registered in China during 2016 represent approximately 46% of ALL plug-ins sold worldwide this year, with Chinese carmakers responsible for 43% of all EV production in 2016.

To confirm the rising trend of the Big Red Giant, in 2013 China had only 6% of the worldwide plug-in production, since then it had increased share at a 11-12% yearly pace.

In December there were a number of fresh models shining, with the BAIC EC180 being the most impressive, reaching Second Place right on its landing month.

Here are last month Top 5 Best Selling models:

   

#1 – Geely Emgrand EV: Geely, one of the largest car makers in China, owner of Volvo and LTI, the iconic Black Cab from London, joined this year the EV Bandwagon, by selling the Emgrand EV, an electric conversion of its successful middle-of-the-road sedan, and last month it was the most successful to date, with a massive 6.023 units, a new all-time record for a single model, allowing it to win for the first time the Best Seller status. With ok looks and good-but-not-outstanding specs (127 hp, 0-100kms/h in 9.9 seconds, 253 kms range from a 45 kWh Lithium battery), Geely is betting to make a good first entry into the market, stealing sales from BYD and BAIC sedans, while the more export-oriented Lynk & Co plug-ins do not arrive.

#2 – BAIC EC180: After being shown in last November, the BAIC EC180 has landed in the following month with a bang, registering 4.128units, a new record for a debut month, this city car has the advantage of offering a rather appealing Crossoverized-look, good equipment features, Ok interiors and a usable range, with 180 kms. Is this enough to sustain the record figures registered in December? No one really knows, but BAIC has great ambitions for this platform, with more models coming and input from a certain LeEco company…

  

#3 – Chery Arrizo 7 PHEV: Another newcomer willing to stir the established players, the Arrizo 7 PHEV is Chery’s new product, having arrived just in October, it is already reaching the podium, thanks to 2.922 registrations last month. Sitting at the heart of the plug-in hybrid sedan market, with a starting price of 150k Yuan (20.500 euro), a 9.3 kWh battery and 50 kms electric range, this model wants to give the BYD Qin and SAIC’s e550 a run for the money and hopefully repeat this podium position in other occasions.

 

#4 – BYD e6: Below all these newcomers we have the longest running plug-in in China, zooming the streets since 2010, the BYD e6, this model experienced a record year in 2016, thanks to some new impressive range specs, shaming everyone bar Tesla, with its 400 kms range coming from a 80 kWh battery. Popular among taxi-fleets, this model ended the year with 2.528 units in December.

 

#5 – BYD e5: This plain-Jane sedan is on the rise, having beaten its monthly record, with 2.420 units delivered in December, starting to become a regular in this Top 5. Unlike the more show stopping BYD Qin EV300, the e5 feels more taxi-friendlyregular looking but with basically the same specs as the all-electric Qin, 305 kms range included. A BYD for cost conscious (230k Yuan / 30k Euro) customers.

Year-to-Date Ranking – 100% BYD Podium

With over 70(!) models on sale, three of them landing last month, the Chinese EV market is by far the most dynamic on Earth, with plenty of surprises and changes.

Proof of this balance is the fact the BYD Tang, China’s Best Selling Plug-in in 2016, ended the year with 31.000 units, or just 9% of the plug-in market, the lowest share of any winner in the World. Also, it hasn’t won any Monthly Best Seller trophy since July…Despite this, it was a record year for the Chinese SUV, scoring 31.405 units, slightly below the 31.898 all-time record set by its BYD Qin relative in 2015, but enough to leave the same BYD Qin in Second Place this year, some 10.000 units behind.

But the real surprise this year was the Third Place of the veteran BYD e6, thanks to a strong Q4 (7.715 units), it climbed to Third Place for the first time since 2013, with a record 20.605 units, making it three BYD’s in the podium seats, a first.

Below we find two BAIC’s, the E-Series EV and the EU260, both had disappointing performances in December and were surpassed by the old fox BYD e6, while the Geely Emgrand EV jumped to #6 in December, leaving strong credentials for 2017. Will we see it run for the leadership?

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the leader BYD lost 3% share, to 28%, but it was enough to win the Manufacturers title (Third in a row), to put three BYD’s in the podium, another in #9 and other in #14. Not bad, eh?

BAIC (12%) ended in Second Place and Zotye (11%) secured the Third Spot, ahead of SAIC, Chery and Zhidou, all with 6% share.

An always popular debate is Tesla’s performance in China, so here is a small tip on its performance, there was only some 100 Model S delivered in December, because that month was the first mass delivery of the Model X, with more than 1.000 units being registered that month.

As result, Tesla ended the year with 3% share, being the Best Selling foreign manufacturer, ahead of Porsche (1%).

Finally, looking at the breakdown between BEV’s and PHEV’s, unlike other markets where plug-in hybrids are winning the upper hand, all-electric cars just keep on improving share, ending the year at 76%, up 1% regarding November 2016 and 7% more than the result achieved in 2015.

Pl	China	Dec.	YTD	%
1	BYD Tang	1.510	31.405	9
2	BYD Qin	821	21.868	6
3	BYD e6	2.528	20.605	6
4	BAIC E-Series EV	227	18.814	5
5 6 7 8	BAIC EU260 Geely Emgrand EV Zotye Cloud EV Chery eQ	309 6.023 1.615 1.927	18.805 17.181 16.417 16.017	5 5 5 5
9	BYD e5	2.420	15.639	4
10	SAIC Roewe e550	620	15.145	4
11	Zotye E200	2.213	13.154	4
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20	Zhidou D1 EV JMC E100 BYD Qin EV300 JAC I EV 4 Zhidou D2 EV Tesla Model S  e) Kandi K17 Cyclone JAC I EV 5 Changan Eado EV Others	491 921 519 1.407 1.347 108 758 1.088 504 17.518	11.201 10.823 10.656 10.453 9.091 7.548 6.862 4.971 4.839 70.367	3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 21
	TOTAL Market	44.874	351.861	100

 e) Estimate

Article published also on EV Obsession and CleanTechnica

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Five Exportable EV's from China

2017/8 Lynk & Co: Chinese Plug-in made for Export

Mass exports from Chinese Auto Brands to mature markets have been hampered by Safety and Emission concerns, as well as a general prejudice regarding products coming that country.

BEV's are seen as an opportunity, because the Emission part of the equation is solved from the beginning, while Safety and Design of Chinese cars have been evolving faster than their foreign competitors, reducing the gap, so it won't be long until the best Chinese Electric Cars are head-to-head  with the best mass market EV's.

To date, Chinese EV makers haven't really bothered to export their models, because their domestic is more than enough to absorb all production, but if they did, which would be the more successful? These would be my picks.

Bare in mind that i chose only all-electric cars and eschewed the current Top Best Sellers, this a personal view and others might choose different models.

BYD Qin EV300 - BYD's can be seen something a bit like Chinese Teslas, with Youtube videos showing their Tang SUV's racing BMW X6's and the like, BYD is not only the largest plug-in maker in the World, but also a cool one, a rare commodity among Chinese car makers. Unfortunately, like Tesla, coolness doesn't come cheap, and this Qin EV300 costs 260k Yuan (Price before subsidies), or around 36.000 euros. Did i hear you say: "Yikes, that's a lot of money for a Chinese car!". It is, but then again, you get a lot in return: 300 kms range from a 48 kWh battery, 218 hp, 0-100 kms/h in 7.9s, nice interiors...Think of it as sort of an all-electric Chevrolet Volt and you are not far from the truth. For those that still can't get past the price and don't mind a taxi-like-appliance, BYD offers the e5 300, which is basically the same package and specs, but with a less sexy outfit, for 230k Yuan, or 31.500 eur.

Geely Emgrand EV - The owner of Volvo joined this year the EV stage with the Emgrand EV, a BYD Qin fighter, that is slightly cheaper (252k Yuan, 34.5k eur), but has also slightly less range (253 kms from a 45 kWh battery),  and despite being no slouch (120 hp, 9.9s 0-100kms/h), is significantly slower. "So, why would people buy this, if the Qin has almost the same price but better specs?" - Some might ask. The short answer is "Volvo". As mentioned before, one of the weak points of Chinese Car Makers is brand cachet, or the lack of it. If BYD has become a known entity among the plug-in niche and can start there their branding, Geely as no cred among EV followers or the general public in developed markets, but add the word "Volvo" to the mix and things start to change, with the most recent Geely models sharing technology with the Swedish brand, Geely can use that card the same way Mercedes did with the Smart brand (Mercedes tech) or Renault with Dacia. That way, customers can say to their friends, neighbors and coworkers: "Yeah, my car came from China, but it's made with Volvo parts"

Chery eQ - A consistent seller in China, the funky eQ sells for 160k Yuan (22.000 Euro) before incentives and for that you get a decently equipped and sized city car, with 22kWh battery and 200 kms range, with the only drawback being the weak engine (56 hp, 100 kms/h top speed), at least by First World standards, which might put off people when thinking about some urban freeways. Add a bit more power to the engine and you could have a valuable competitor to the current crop of city EV's, as the Mitsubishi triplets are showing their age, the VW e-Up! is pricey, while the upcoming Smart Forfour ED looks too goofy (What were Smart designers smoking when did this last generation?!?).

Zotye Zhima E30 - An intriguing mash up of BMW i3, Smart Fortwo (Previous generation) and Tesla on the inside, this butch(y) city car, looks quite nice inside and out, but Zotye will have to improve specs to have success on foreign markets, especially considering the (steep) price: 25.000 Euro. Increase the 18 kWh battery size to some 24 kWh, pulling the range north of 200 kms, and place a peppy engine (100 hp should be enough) and this tittle bugger will have specs that match its hip design and make it a success.

BAIC EX200 - Ending this list without a Crossover would be ignoring probably the most significant automotive trend in China and globally, so among the rising number of BEV Crossovers made in China, i have chosen this model, the electric conversion of the Senova X25 best seller. This small Crossover (Think Kia Soul or Renault Captur) is only #19 in the plug-in ranking in China, but right now its sales potential could be hampered by the battery, the 30kWh allows only 200 kms range, if BAIC placed the 41 kWh battery of its EU260 sedan, then range would get a bump to some 250 kms and surely sales would increase significantly, more so if the engine were to be upgraded from the current 70 hp to 90/100 hp. Doing these changes and keeping price at current levels, 207k Yuan (28.500 Euro) before incentives, would transform this model in a real winner on foreign markets, especially considering the only plug-in model in that segment is the much more expensive Kia Soul EV.

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China New Models - November 2016

This month we have only one new model landing, this time coming from a foreign brand and debuting its career in China, something that speaks volumes on the importance of this market.

Cadillac CT6 PHEV - A return to what Cadillac was once known for, before the bling-bling Escalade, the CT6 is a massive rear-wheel-drive barge full-size sedan, and a handsome one at that. The PHEV version is built in Shanghai and has a similar drive unit to the successful Chevrolet Volt, but with a more powerful gas engine, with total output reaching 449 hp, allowing it to accelerate from 0-62 mph in 5.6 seconds, while claimed all-electric range is 60 kms, thanks to a 18.4 kWh battery, an important plus over the competing German PHEV's, which have half the range and make the big American sedan a usable car in EV-mode.

So, how will it translate in sales? Hard to say really, it will sell better than their German counterparts, as it is locally build, allowing it to escape the steep import tariffs and have a competitive price, so 100 units/month is a minimum level, but will it be able to reach Tesla-levels, say 700 units/month? 

While possible, i don't believe Cadillac being committed to it, the regular ICE CT6 is selling some 600 units/month in China, so it would already be positive if the PHEV version reached some 300 units/month.

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China November 2016 (Updated)

Zotye E30, or what a 2-seater city car could look like if it had been done by  BMW i-line 

(Subsidies Derived) Record Month

The Chinese market had a record 43.441 new EV's zooming the streets in November, up 36% over last October and 56% YoY, pulling the Plug-in Market Share to a record 1.39%, above the USA (0.86%) and Europe (1.2%).

With the market share continuing to rise bit by bit, the Chinese EV market will end the year at over 350.00, pulling the total plug-in fleet to over 650.000 units, which will be the largest in the World, above the US (560k) and Europe (630k).

In November, the upcoming incentive changes reshaped the ranking, with plenty of cheap, small EV’s experiencing a surge, no doubt linked to dealership registrations, wanting to cash in on the current subsidies. 

As such, three small EV’s jumped into the Top 5, with one of them (Zotye Cloud EV) collecting the Best Seller trophy, with over 5.000 units.

Here are last month Top 5 Best Selling models:

  

#1 – Zotye Cloud EV: One of many electric “cars” on sale in China, the Zotye Cloud EV has the advantage of offering five doors, some equipment features, like a 7-inch color infotainment system (Which is where the name comes from, “Cloud” – Get it?) and a usable range, with 150 kms, thanks to a 18kWh battery. Is this enough to explain the record 5.024 units registered in November? No, but the upcoming incentives reduction is…

#2 – Geely Emgrand EV: Geely, one of the largest car makers in China, owner of Volvo and LTI, the iconic Black Cab from London, recently joined the EV Circle, selling the Emgrand EV, an electric conversion of its successful middle-of-the-road sedan, and last month was the most successful to date, with 3.799units, allowing it to join for the first time the Top 5. With OK looks and good-but-not-outstanding specs (127 hp, 0-100kms/h in 9.9 seconds, 253 kms range from a 45 kWh Lithium battery), Geely is hoping to make a good first entry into the market, stealing sales from BYD and BAIC sedans, while the much more appealing Lynk & Co plug-ins do not arrive.

#3 – BAIC EU260: Beijing Auto’s new poster-child for success, the EU260 this time was down to 3.769 units, but still enough to win another podium seat, this time in Third. Sitting at the heart of the plug-in sedan market, with compelling specs (260 kms range, 0-100 kms/h in 9 seconds), this model is giving BYD sedans a run for the money and will be a strong contender for 2017.

 

#4 – Zotye E200: Top of the range of the two-seater-Smart-alike lineup from Zotye, this model has some impressive specs, even shaming Smart itself, with a 220 kms range coming from a 25kWh battery, 80 hp engine, 120 kms/h top speed and fast-charging possibilities, the E200 feels like a winner. Helped by the incentives boost, this model reached a record 3.500units in November.

#5 – Chery eQ: The funky little hatchback is on the rise, having beaten again Chery’s monthly record, with 3.233 units, earning its second consecutive Top 5 spot. Unlike the Zotye Cloud EV, the eQ feels more car-like, with a 22 kWh battery, 200 kms range, a 56 hp engine and suitable safety equipment (Airbags, ABS…).

BYD Tang

Year-to-Date Ranking – The Legend of Zotye

With some 70(!) models on sale, the Chinese EV market is by far the most dynamic on Earth, with plenty of surprises and changes.

If the Top 3 models remained unchanged (Strangely, all in “Slow Selling” mode), the following positions saw plenty of changes, with the BAIC EU260 jumping to #4, now less than 100 units away from its smaller brother BAIC E-Series EV and with the BYD Qin in the line of sight, Beijing’s sedan will try to take away the Silver Medal from its direct competitor.

But the Climber of the Month award went to the Zotye Cloud EV, jumping to #6, thanks to a record 5.024 units, it is now the Best Selling City EV in the ranking, but with the Chery eQ also running strong and some 800 units behind, this class 2016 title is still open to discussion.

Deserved mentions for the Geely Emgrand EV, rising to #10 thanks to 3.769 sales, while in a memorable month for Zotye, its E200 city car also impressed, beating again its personal record, with 3.500 units, jumping three positions to #11, becoming the one of the surprises of the month.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the leader BYD lost 2% share, to 31%, while being the first time in years we don’t see a single BYD in the Monthly Top 5, a case of waning demand, retooling for the Lithium-equipped 2017 edition of their models, or both?

BAIC (14%) is firm in Second Place, while Zotye (11%, up 3%) secured its Third Spot, ahead of SAIC and Zhidou, both with 6% share.

An always popular debate is Tesla’s performance in China, while many commentators have classified it as a failure for not topping the sales ranking as in other markets, let’s not forget two facts:

One, domestic carmakers have 95% of the market;

Two, of the remaining 5% that’s left to foreign brands, 3% belong to Tesla, so in fact Tesla is outselling all other foreign brands in China. Combined…

And that’s despite having no local production, thus paying heavy import taxes. If that is not success, I don’t know what is.

Finally, looking at the breakdown between BEV’s and PHEV’s, unlike other markets where plug-in hybrids are winning the upper hand, all-electric cars just keep on improving share, now at 75%, up 3% regarding last month.

Pl	China	Nov.	YTD	%
1	BYD Tang	1.578	29.895	10
2	BYD Qin	1.118	21.047	7
3	BAIC E-Series EV	735	18.587	6
4	BAIC EU260	3.769	18.496	6
5 6 7 8	BYD e6 Zotye Cloud EV SAIC Roewe e550 Chery eQ	2.069 5.024 925 3.233	18.077 14.802 14.525 14.090	6 5 5 5
9	BYD e5	2.113	13.219	4
10	Geely Emgrand EV	3.799	11.158	4
11	Zotye E200	3.500	10.941	4
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20	Zhidou D1 EV BYD Qin EV300 JMC E100 JAC I EV 4 Zhidou D2 EV Tesla Model S Kandi K17 Cyclone BAIC EX200 Changan Eado EV Others	1.923 1.215 1.504 776 703 937 284 216 8.020	10.710 10.137 9.902 9.046 7.744 7.440 6.164 4.489 4.335 45.813	4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 18
	TOTAL Market	43.441	300.557	100

Article also published on EV Obsession and CleanTechnica

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