Showing posts with label Forecasts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forecasts. Show all posts

China December 2013

Chery QQ3 EV repeated the Best Selling EV title it had won in '12

Nothing New Edition

We all now it's hard to get accurate data from the chinese EV market, but after getting some data about this market, i can now give a approximate ranking of the fourth largest plug-in market in the World.

Sales mounted to 17.642 units in 2013, which represented a 38% increase over the last year, when sales reached 12.791 units.

Based on certified data and past performances, the presumed Top 5 almost exactly like last years ranking, with the only change being the rise of the BAIC E150 EV to #5.

The Chery QQ3 EV kept its #1 by a great margin, selling roughly the same as last year, followed by the JAC J3 EV in #2, which also sold almost the same as in '12.

Next we have the BYD offerings, with the e6 in third with 1.544 sales and the now-deceased F3 DM in #4, with 1.005 units.

The only change is in #5, where the BAIC E150 EV profited from a bad performance from Zotye TD100 EV, to climb one position and feature on this Top 5.

By brands, Chery keeps on dominating the ranking with 28% share, followed by BYD with 15% and JAC with 14%.

Trying to see the future in the tea leaves, i guess that the new BYD baby, the Qin, will finally dethrone Chery from the pedestal, BYD predicts 2.000 sales/month, but if they can get half of that it would a good performance and also enough to win the Best Seller title.

Also of interest, the new Venucia e30 / Morning Wind (Morning what?!?) will have a word to say here, but with Nissan/Venucia predicting yearly sales of  just 1.000 units, it can only aspire to feature on the Top 5 ranking, without disturbing Chery or BYD.

As for foreign brands, even if they venture into selling EV's in China (And they will) the numbers should only be enough to aspire at the lower place in the podium.

With all this taken into account, i see sales reach some 25.000 units at the end of 2014, still not the boom people expect, but a steady growth nevertheless.


PlModel2013
1Chery QQ3 EV (e)5.000
2JAC J3 EV (e)2.500
3BYD e61.544
4BYD F3 DM1.005
5BAIC E150 EV710

(e) - Estimate

France December 2013 (Updated)

Possible Renault Zoe Convertible: Maybe not the best idea to increase sales...

To Zoe or Not to Zoe Edition

Renault expected a lot from its electric supermini, especially in its homemarket, and sales in the first semester were ok, selling 3.594 units, but then summer came and while other started to see sales increase (*Cough*,Nissan Leaf,*Cough*), Zoe sales started to go down, losing monthly #1's (August, September, November, December) to its older, more utilitarian brother, the Kangoo ZE.

Right now in Renault HQ there must be a team debating what to do with its childproblem, the Zoe, for now it would be a good idea to sell batteries instead of renting them...

Anyway, despite that terrible  second semester, the Zoe won the Best Selling EV in France with 5.511 units, followed by the rockhard Kangoo ZE (4.174 units) and in #3 the Nissan Leaf (1.438 units) sales are improving ant it's looking to fight with its french cousins for #1 in 2014.

The Smart Fortwo ED also ended the year on a high note, selling 130 units in December, promising good things for the future.

Looking at the market as whole, the french plug-in market grew 26% to 14.905 units, making an EV Share of 0,83%. 

Finally, looking at PHEV's, the Prius Plug-In won the Best Selling Plug-In Hybrid title, with 393 units, followed closely (241 units) by the V60 Plug-In by Volvo and in third we have the Porsche (!) Panamera S E-Hybrid (Aka Plug-In), with 90 units, more than the sales of the GM twins (Ampera and Volt) combined...And incidentally, more than the Model S from Tesla, making France one of the few markets where the Panamera Plug-In outran the Californian Electric Star

PlFranceDec.YTD%'12Pl
1Renault Zoe2785.5113713
2Renault Kangoo ZE2904.174281
3Nissan Leaf1661.438106
4Bolloré Blue Car4365443
5Renault Twizy3059942
6Goupil G3 e)30516310
7Smart Fortwo ED130478312
8Toyota Prius Plug-In3039337
9Volvo V60 Plug-In502412N/A
10Mia Electric522018
11Peugeot iOn117815
12Citröen C-Zero149414
13
14
BMW i3
Porsche Panamera Plug-In
9
30
84
90
1
1
N/A
N/A
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Volkswagen e-Up!
Opel Ampera
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Tesla Model S
Renault Fluence ZE
Chevrolet Volt
Fisker Karma
Ford Focus Electric
Neoma Lumeneo
Tesla Roadster
40
3
5


2




64
57
38
19
18
17
12
6
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
N/A
11
16
N/A
9
14
15
N/A
N/A
17

TOTAL1.15614.905100
e) Estimate

Source: Manufacturers, Automobile Propre

Portugal December 2013

Twizy continues to be #1 in Portugal

Back Out of Hell Edition

In 2011 portuguese EV sales mounted to 210 units, which was more than countries like Sweden or Italy and was placing Portugal on the forefront of the EV (re)evolution, but then in 2012 fiscal incentives ended and the market plunged to 161 units when others grew exponentially. 

2013 started like the year before, but then during the summer a number of fleet deals and increased private demand pushed sales up, ending the year with 224 units sold, 39% above last year and 7% above the '11 hallmark.

In the models ranking, the Renault Twizy won again the Best Selling crown, followed by the Peugeot iOn which benefited from fleet sales to reach #2, just 8 units behind the leader.

The Nissan Leaf (38 units sold) ended in Third and the Renault Fluence ZE in #4, 

The BMW i3 ended in #7, but in 2014 it will be one of the main candidates at the Best Seller Title, just like the VW e-Up!

PlPortugalDec.2013%Pl '12
1Renault Twizy450221
2Peugeot iOn
42198
3Nissan Leaf338173
4Renault Fluence ZE
32146
5Renault Zoe22210N/A
6
7
8
9
Smart Fortwo ED
BMW i3
Opel Ampera
Mitsubishi I-Miev

3
1
21
10
7
2
9
4
3
1
2
5
N/A
7

TOTAL13224100
in


Source: Best Selling Cars Blog; Manufacturers

Switzerland December 2013

The sensible Zoe won the Best Seller Crown in Switzerland

BMW #1 in December, Renault #1 in 2013 Edition

A great month for the Swiss EV market, 247 units represents the best month of the year by far, pulling the EV share to 0,44%, 0,03% above last year.

This month the zippy BMW i3 made a splash with 85 units, earning BMW the first monthly #1 title anywhere, but the YTD title went for the Renault Zoe, with 342 sales, in #2 we had a change in the last month of the year, with the Model S climbing to #2, relegating the Twizy to #3.

 In the middle of the YTD chart, we assist a curious tie, with both Chevrolet Volt and Opel Ampera selling 71 units.

In 2014, both BMW and Tesla will surely fight with Renault for #1, pulling the sales to some 2.000 units/year.


PlSwitzerlandDec.2013%'12Pl
1Renault Zoe643422511
2Tesla Model S 4721316N/A
3Renault Twizy9207151
4Nissan Leaf20178136
5Mitsubishi I-Miev511085
6BMW i3851068N/A
7Chevrolet Volt137156
7Opel Ampera17152
9Fisker Karma12428
10Citröen C-Zero
222N/A
11Peugeot iOn11019
12Renault Fluence ZE
717
13
13
Tesla Roadster
Think City

3
3
0
0
10
12

TOTAL2471.368100



Source: auto-suisse.ch; Manufacturers

Austria December 2013

Zoe and Austria ride along well with each other

Austrian Love Affair Edition

The total 2013 plug-in sales in Austria mounts to 833, translating in an EV Share of 0,26%, 0,04% behind last year

Despite this, the Renault Zoe blasted Twizy's 2012 performance (271 sales) and scored 369 sales in 2013, holding the #1 position since May and finishing the year with 44% share, 7% more than the share that the Zoe has in its own France...

In a distant #2, the Twizy  sold 95 units, three times less than last year, but still enough to beat the #3 Nissan Leaf (88 units).

Good performances from the #4 Smart Fortwo ED (71 units vs 12 last year) and Tesla Model S (#5, 48 units), both will be looking to reach the podium in '14, just like the Volvo V60 Plug-In.


PlAustriaDec.2013%'12Pl
1Renault Zoe2536944N/A
2Renault Twizy295111
3Nissan Leaf888116
4Smart Fortwo ED67199
5Tesla Model S10486N/A
6Opel Ampera24254
7Volvo V60 Plug-In6314N/A
8BMW i31202N/A
9Mitsubishi I-Miev21625
10Renault Fluence ZE
1323
11Volkswagen e-Up! e)5101N/A
12
13
14
Citröen C-Zero
Peugeot iOn
Chevrolet Volt


2
7
5
4
1
1
0
2
7
8
15Ford Focus Electric
30N/A
15
16
16
19
19
19
Renault Kangoo ZE
Mia Electric
Tesla Roadster
Porsche Panamera Plug-In
Volkswagen XL1
Fisker Karma
1


1


3
2
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
12
N/A
N/A
9

TOTAL71833100

e) Estimate

Source: automotive.co.at


Germany December 2013

After the 2010 crown, Smart is again the Best Selling EV in Germany

Slow Lane Edition II

With 712 plug-ins sold in December, the German EV market still hasn't grown the way it would be expected, with the full year sales reaching 6.711 units, growing just 4% regarding the year before.

The BMW i3 (90 units sold) failed to reach three digit sales and ended the year in #5 YTD, with only one model to register decent sales, the Smart Fortwo ED, which deservedly earned the Best Selling EV title in Germany, selling twice as much as the #2 Renault Zoe.

The #3 was recovered near the finish line by the Nissan Leaf, relegating the Twizy to #4. 

Brandwise, Smart was also the winner with 32% share, followed by last year winner, Renault (28%) and in #3 we have Nissan (13%).

It's hard to predict sales for 2014, but i would go for some 10.000 units/year and (hopefully) the BMW i3 and VW e-Up!/e-Golf will increase sales and will start to outrun Smart.

PlGermanyDec.2013%'12Pl
1Smart Fortwo ED e)3002.146327
2Renault Zoe721.01915N/A
3Nissan Leaf50855135
4Renault Twizy e)25831121
5BMW i3905598N/A
6Opel Ampera1733552
7Citröen C-Zero
27644
8Tesla Model S e)502043N/A
9Volkswagen e-Up! e)751502N/A
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Volvo V60 Plug-In e)
Renault Fluence ZE
Peugeot iOn
Ford Focus Electric e)
Chevrolet Volt
Porsche Panamera S E. e)

20
4

5

4
89
73
60
41
35
25
12
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
9
N/A
6
8
N/A
13
N/A

TOTAL7126.711100

e) estimate

Source: kba.de; goingelectric.de

Hong Kong December 2013

The nicer relifted Fluence ZE 

Alliance Stronghold Edition

This small EV market had 190 electric cars sold in 2013 (0,39% share), up from 89 last year, with the Renault-Nissan Alliance dominating sales, with 74% share.

The Renault Fluence ZE won a surprising Best Seller Title, with the BYD e6 in #2 and the Leaf in third with 31 sales. 

Further down, the Renault Kangoo ZE was #4 with 12 sales, followed by the Minicab Miev in #5  and finally in sixth place, we have the Mitsu I-Miev and Renault Twizy with just one unit sold.

In 2014 the Tesla Model S and BMW i3 will make an impact here, especially the american Sports Sedan, which reportedly has a 400(!) reservation list, so this market will grow exponentially to some 600-800 units and some 1,5% share!

PlHong KongDec.2013%'12Pl
1Renault Fluence ZE
9751N/A
2BYD e6
4524N/A
3Nissan Leaf431161
4
5
6
7
Renault Kangoo ZE
Mitsubishi Minicab Miev
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Renault Twizy
1


12
3
3
1
6
2
2
1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
TOTAL5190

Source: HKMTA

Canada December 2013

Another win for the Volt in Canada. But the competition will be stronger in '14...

Changes Edition

With 3.041 EV's sold in 2013, the Canadian market grew 54% regarding '12, reaching a respectable 0,18% EV Share, mostly thanks to increased sales from the Nissan Leaf (470 units in '13 vs 240 in '12), full year sales from Tesla and new models from Ford.

Despite this, #1 went for the Chevy Volt, but it's now far from the domination it had in 2012, when it owned 67% on the market.

The Second Placed Tesla Model S was the only model to bother the Chevy leadership, winning three monthly #1's (March, July and September) and that performance could have been better if Tesla didn't had production constraints....Just like the #3 Nissan Leaf, which also had them in the Tennessee factory. 

The rest of the ranking had several changes in the last days of the year, with the Ford C-Max Energi climbing to #5 and the Smart Fortwo ED to #6, with the I-Miev, which had a terrible month of December with just 2 units sold, dropped to #7, while the Fusion Energi climbed one position to #8.

For 2014, both Tesla and Nissan aren't expecting production constraints, so both of them can have a go at #1, testing for the first time Chevy leadership in Canada.

PlCanadaDec.2013%
1Chevrolet Volt8093131
2Tesla Model S e)4061820
3Nissan Leaf2847015
4Toyota Prius Plug-In52127
5Ford C-Max Energi351997
6Smart Fortwo ED e)201906
7Mitsubishi I-Miev21686
8Ford Fusion Energi151164
9Ford Focus Electric e)51063
10Fisker Karma
231
11
12
Chevrolet Spark EV
Toyota RAV4 EV

5
3
0
0

TOTAL2153.041100

e) Estimate

Source: greencarreports.com

Spain December 2013

Taxi Vehicle, one of the most common fleet deals for the Electric Nissan

Alliance Edition

1.274 plug-ins were sold in Spain, achieving an EV Share of 0,18%, 0,06% behind the 2012 performance (0,24%), but the fall wasn't as bad as many feared in the beginning of the year, where in February the EV Share was just 0,04%...

The Nissan Leaf won the Best Seller Crown, with 263 units and 21% share, followed by its french cousins, the Renault Twizy (193 units, 15% Share) and the Renault Zoe (182 registrations, 14% share) closing the podium.

The rest of the market was heavily influenced by fleet deals and stock clearances, enabling the Mitsu I-Miev to finish #4 (Better than the #9 in '12, but still far from the #1 spot in '11), and the Fluence ZE in #5.

By brands, Renault won easily the competition with 45% share, followed by Nissan (21%) and Mitsubishi (11%), the Renault-Nissan Alliance as a whole got 66% share, so it's safe to say that for the moment the Alliance has this market covered.

It is hard to predict what will happen in 2014 at the Spanish EV Market, because fleet deals are big here, but it's expected that new, local incentives, could push sales up to close to 2.000 units/year. 

PlSpainDec.2013%'12Pl
1Nissan Leaf1263213
2Renault Twizy 2193151
3Renault Zoe118214N/A
4Mitsubishi I-Miev
142119
5Renault Fluence ZE10128104
6Peugeot iOn77365
7Renault Kangoo ZE57262
8Citröen C-Zero55856
9
10
Smart Fortwo ED
Toyota Prius Plug-In
8
13
57
51
4
4
13
6
11
12
13
14
15
16
BMW i3
Porsche Panamera Plug-In
Opel Ampera
Ford Focus Electric
Chevrolet Volt
Tesla Model S
     4
2
1
1


27
14
6
5
2
1
2
1
0
0
0
0
N/A
N/A
8
N/A
11
N/A

TOTAL611.274100


Source: Autoblog.es; 


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