Markets Roundup January 2015

VW Golf plug-in Twins

The Golf Twins success (Or how Plug-ins are going mainstream)

After ending 2014 with numbers a bit below of what was expected from a manufacturer like Volkswagen (It was #1 only in Norway), the german brand had a great beginning this year, leading several rankings throughout Europe, with #1's in the Netherlands (GTE), Norway (e-Golf) and Germany (GTE), and the GTE leading the Best Selling PHEV ranking in France and Switzerland.

If in Norway this sudden burst in sales is explained by the addition of the Heat Pump and the fact that electric cars are already mainstream (They had 18% share last month), the Golf GTE recent success in Europe is something else, as plug-ins expansion progresses, they are starting to go beyond the early adopters niche and going into mainstream buyers, where expectations regarding cars are a bit more conservative, as they prefer established brands and models (What could be more established than the Best Selling car in Europe?) and without range issues, that's why the e-Golf failed to succeed, early adopters preferred other electric cars to a high priced everyday Golf, while at the same time it didn't appealed to mainstream consumers, as the cheaper ICE Golf had the ability to go everywhere without a sweat.

Here enters the VW Golf GTE, an established car without range issues that can still go 50 kms fully electric, on top of that, it benefits from the special aura that sporty Golf's enjoy (Let's call it the  GTI-Factor), and all for a decent price (+/- 37k €, VW wasn't greedy this time), making it an attractive proposition for anyone buying a car, plug-in or otherwise.

Add that to the end of the Opel Ampera (Those 15.000 buyers will eventually need to replace their aging plug-ins...), disappearing what it could be it's #1 PHEV rival, and several incentives to plug-in car buyers and you have a perfect storm for the success of the GTE, it might even overcome the Outlander PHEV as the Best Seller in Europe.

Another interesting proposition is the Audi A3 e-Tron, basically the same package, but with a more premium flavor, the regular A3 was #10 in the 2014 European Best Selling Cars ranking, so anything below that position in the EV ranking would be a failure for the german car, especially considering that only cars on the regular Top 10 Euro ranking have a plug-included mass-produced version (Golf, A3 and Clio-based Zoe).


 







Trends in the G8 

In the Top Markets volumes, there were a few surprises, some good (UK, Norway, Netherlands and China continue beat the best expectations), others not so good (The US and Japan demand is softening).

In the models rankings the BMW i3 won its first podium seat in the US, the aforementioned the Golf GTE surprised in several markets, just like the e-Golf in Norway, a market where the Outlander PHEV scored a Third Spot, a first for a plug-in hybrid, in Germany the Kia Soul EV got a surprising #4 (And best-selling foreign car, step by step the korean car is making its way to the top).

In China the cat-with-nine-lives Chery QQ EV started the year in Second, only behind the untouchable BYD Qin.

Chery eQ, basically the QQ EV with a decent battery (200 kms range)

Other Markets 
Looking at other markets, there are some record numbers to report, Ireland scored 138 in the first month of the year (The record 256 units sold in the whole year of 2014 should be blown to pieces this year), while Belgium registered 311 plug-ins, almost three times more than it did twelve months ago...

Regarding EV Share, some markets gave great indications for the rest of the year, with Switzerland joining the 1% Club (1,49% vs 0,75% last year), Ireland jumping from 0,27% to 0,46%, and Hong Kong tripling the EV Share to 1,22%, making it the eighth market to reach 1% barrier, will we see this club reach 10 members by the end of the year? 

Probably, the UK (0,97%) and Belgium (0,78%) will probably be the next in line, but there are other candidates too (Japan, USA, France, Austria, Denmark...).


Sales by Continental Areas 

Looking at sales by Continents, if Europe is well documented here, with the Outlander PHEV and the Golf Twins ahead, the other two continental areas with significant EV Volumes have been largely undocumented as whole markets, so here's an insight on them:

Americas

PlModel
Jan.
1Nissan Leaf1.202
2Tesla Model S1.100
3BMW i3704
4Chevrolet Volt648
5Ford Fusion Energi436

Basically it's the US ranking with Canada added, the top 5 positions remain the same, with Tesla benefiting from a great month in the Northern Neighbor to reach closer to the Leaf, while the Volt also sees a small uptick in sales, thanks to the Canadian appetite for the GM car.


Asia - Pacific

PlModel
Jan. '15
1
2
BYD Qin
Nissan Leaf
1.911
1.413
3Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV915
4Chery QQ EV552
5BYD e6423
6
7
8
9
10

Zotye E20
Toyota Prius Plug-In
Chery eQ
Roewe 550 PHEV
Tesla Model S

408
400
355
348
215

Here things become more intriguing, with the Top Two markets (China and Japan) taking the shots and with only two models present in both (Tesla Model S and Nissan Leaf / Venucia Morning Wind), this is a mix between both markets, the big news is that unlike what many might think, the Best Selling Plug-in here is not the Nissan Leaf, but a chinese car: The BYD Qin numbers in China are so high, that they are enough to outsell the whole APAC sales of the Leaf!

Also of notice is the fact that the best-selling non-asian car here is Tesla's Model S, only #10 in the ranking.

Europe January 2015

Customers are going for them

The Empire Strikes Back Edition

Still without Austria and Portugal numbers, the European market had more than 9.500 units registrations in January, almost doubling sales regarding January '14 (5.226 units), as the first month of the year is usually one of the slowest, there are reasons to be optimistic for the rest of the year.

Looking at the models ranking, we can see Volkswagen recovering for the lost time regarding plug-ins, with both the e-Golf (Thank you Norway) and the GTE (Thank you Netherlands) in podium positions, if we think that both cars are basically the same model, the Best Seller would be the VW Golf, but as both are considered different beasts (The first is a Leaf-killer, the second is a sporty PHEV)  we should see them different identities, so the Best Seller for now is still the Outlander PHEV, with 1.980 units.

In the Top 10, the only real changes happened to VW's: If the Golf GTE sales surged to four digits, meaning that in its first real sales month it reached  #2 (Should Mitsu be worried?), its more sedate relative, the e-Golf finally broke into the four digit league, collecting at the same time its first podium seat. Unlike its larger brothers, the e-Up! had a disappointing performance, selling only 263 units, the worst result since it landed in 2013, dropping four positions, from #6 to #10.

But changes didn't stopped there, in the second half of the ranking, underlining a great month for VAG, the Audi A3 e-Tron climbed to #11 and the Porsche Cayenne to #12, with the SUV selling 237 units, a sales level never before reached by the sports-car brand (The Panamera Plug-In monthly sales record is 128 units), will it reach a Top 10 position soon?

The Kia Soul EV also has been quietly ramping up sales, with the personal best score of 224 units allowing it to climb to #13.

On the other hand, there are two models starting the year with poor performances, the regular as a clock Renault Kangoo ZE  registered only 125 units, its worst result since 2012, a mere blip or something to worry about? As for the Prius Plug-In, the sales dive is no longer news, after a Fifth Spot in 2012 (#2 in the PHEV chart), with 8% share, and holding on into the next year (#6 in 2013 & #3 in the PHEV chart, with share dropping 2% to 6%), it has been downhill since then (The japanese ended 2014 in #14 and 1% share), and starting the year in #20 doesn't sound very promising. A new and improved model is needed urgently, Toyota...

Looking at the brands ranking, Volkswagen is the surprise leader, surging to 24% share (Last year it had only 9%), followed by Mitsubishi (22%), while Nissan is Third with only 11% share.

PlEuropeJan.2015%'14Pl
1Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV1.9801.980211
2Volkswagen Golf GTE1.0331.0331122
3Volkswagen e-Golf1.0261.026119
4Nissan Leaf988988102
5Renault Zoe70970973
6Tesla Model S54954964
7BMW i350250255
8Volvo V60 Plug-In47547557
9Smart Fortwo ED297297310
10Volkswagen e-Up!26326336
11Audi A3 e-Tron242242319
12Porsche Cayenne Plug-In237237228
13Kia Soul EV224224223
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
BMW i8
Renault Twizy
Renault Kangoo ZE
Bolloré Blue Car
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Peugeot iOn
Toyota Prius Plug-In
182
127
125
120
101
77
69
182
127
125
120
101
77
69
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
15
11
8
13
    17
21
14

TOTAL9.5699.569

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