Netherlands February 2016



The Hangover, Part 2 - Pure Electrics Revenge Edition


After the historic month of December, the hangover continued in February, with only 465 sales, down 18% regarding January and a mammoth 67% YoY, looking at the comparable month of February 2014, following to the also historic December '13, sales were down 60%, to add to this gloom, we have to go back to 2013 to find a second month of the year with such low level of sales (421 units then), this was still a time when the Prius Plug-In ruled, with 198 units, followed by the Opel Ampera (101) and...The Kangoo ZE (33). No Outlander PHEV, no Tesla...Different times indeed.

The EV Share reflects these bad times, with little more than 1% (1.28%), when 2015 ended with 9.63%, the market share wasn't so low since 2012, when it reached 1.1%...

Looking at the current ranking, both the Tesla Model S and the Nissan Leaf are ahead of the pack, a surprising lead from two 100% electric cars in the Capital of Plug-In Hybrids, something that didn't happened since the Jurassic 2011, when the same Leaf (Best Selling Model that year) and the Smart Fortwo ED were Gold and Silver medals, respectively. 




PlModelSales  
1Tesla Model S75
2Nissan Leaf67
3Mercedes C350e   e)40
3Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV39
5
Volkswagen Passat GTE37



As been said earlier, pure electrics are experiencing a good moment here, for the first time since 2011, they represent the majority of sales (54%), but this doesn't look like a long term trend, behind the top two models there are none other than six plug-in hybrids in the ranking, three of them with less than a year of presence in the market, and all of them possible leaders in the future.


Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen tops the manufacturers trophy, with 22% share, followed by Nissan (17%) in Second, while Tesla and Volvo (15%) share the Third Spot.


PlNetherlandsFeb.YTD%'15Pl
1
2
Tesla Model S
Nissan Leaf
75
67
159
150
15
15
8
13
3Volkswagen Passat GTE37142146
4Volvo V60 Plug-In257883
5
6
7
Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV
Volkswagen Golf GTE   e)
Mercedes C350e  e)
39
15
7
77
61
47
7
6
5
7
2
5
8Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV134341
9
10
10
Mercedes B250e
BMW 330e
BMW i3
24
33
22
40
33
33
4
3
3
19
25
12
12Renault Zoe1431314
13Audi A3 e-Tron82124
13Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia2021215
15Porsche Cayenne Plug-In319210
16
16
16
19
20
21
22
23
24
24
26
26
26
26
26
Volkswagen e-Up!
Volkswagen e-Golf   e)
BMW X5 40e PHEV
Kia Soul EV
Mercedes GLE500e
Ford C-Max Energi
BMW i8
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
Porsche Panamera Plug-In
Renault Twizy
Mercedes S500e
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Smart Fortwo ED
Toyota Prius Plug-In
Renault Kangoo ZE
6
5
2
5
4

2
3
1


1
1
1
1
12
12
12
10
7
6
5
4
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
28
28
11
24
27
9
20
17
21
28
18
30
15
22
25

TOTAL4651.032100


Source: RAI.nl

USA February 2016

#1 in 2016?





"Sweet Home Chevy Volt" Edition



The Second Generation Chevy Volt had some big wheels to keep on turning, as the first generation had been three times the Best Selling Plug-In in the US (2010, 2012 & 2013) and the market now it's far more competitive than in those days, but as the Lynyrd Skynyrd song says, The Skies are so blue for the GM product, with Nissan having trouble in marketing the 30kWh Leaf and Tesla more worried in getting the QC right on the Model X, it seems that it will be a matter of time for the Volt to be back at Numero Uno.



In February deliveries of the sleek hatchback were up 63% YoY, to 1.126 units and with the 2017 now nation-wide Volt just arriving, expect for a super-month in March (2.5k?), rivaling the Model S usual headlining-last-quarter-month, which my guess will be at around 2.500 units also.



In April, the Model S deliveries will probably drop to the lowest point of the roller coaster, time when the Volt will finally surpass it and reach the leadership for good.



But enough guessing, looking at February, total sales were above 7.800 units, with numbers up 13% YoY, it looks that the US EV market is slowly picking up speed.


Looking at the models ranking, a word of notice is due to the Ford Fusion Energi, reaching the Bronze medal in February, thanks to 932 units, in a way, this model is the Donald Trump of EV's, despite being criticized for its small range and protruding battery pack, it continues to silence critics with decent and consistent performances (#6 in '13, #5 in '14 and '15 and now #3).



Good performance also by the Hyundai Sonata Plug-In (200 sales), continuing to improve its sales level, the same can't be said of the performance from the Tesla Model X, only 400 units delivered in its seventh month in the market is...Underwhelming. Quality Control issues continue to haunt the Sports-Minivan-SUV deliveries, luckily there hasn't been many complaints from actual drivers, but one questions how much time will pass until the "X" reaches full speed in deliveries and starts to reduce the months (years?) long waiting list.


In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (22%) gained speed, distancing itself from but Chevrolet and Ford, both at 18% share.


PlUSAFeb.YTD%
1Tesla Model S e)1.4752.28416
2Chevrolet Volt1.1262.12215
3Nissan Leaf9301.68512
4Ford Fusion Energi9321.51311
5Ford C-Max Energi4908406
6Tesla Model X4007706
7Audi A3 e-Tron2485754
8Volkswagen e-Golf1985264
8BMW X5 40e PHEV3455264
10Fiat 500e2104853
11BMW i32484303
12
13
14
15
Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV
Hyundai Sonata Plug-In
Chevrolet Spark EV
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
176
200
216
172
402
375
355
318
3
3
3
2
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Cadillac ELR
Ford Focus Electric
Kia Soul EV
Smart Fortwo ED
Mercedes B250e
BMW i8
Por. Panamera Plug-In
Mercedes S550e
Toyota Prius Plug-In
Mitsubishi I-Miev
91
81
60
54
37
54
33
19
6
5
158
147
141
102
95
86
60
38
16
7
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0

TOTAL7.80614.056100

e) Estimate




Source: insideevs.com; Good Car Bad Car


Tesla vs The Others

As Elon Musk pointed out, the real competition of Tesla aren't other EV's, but the ICE best selling models, so let's look how the Model S stands in its own domestic market (1)

PlModel    2016
1BMW 5-Series6.553
2Mercedes CLS / E-Class5.490
3Cadillac CTS2.474
4Lexus GS2.465
5
6
Tesla Model S  e)
Audi A6
2.284
1.905
  
With two months into 2016, the Model S already surpassed the Audi A6 and now has the Lexus GS and Cadillac CTS in its sights.

A curious statistic, is that all but two models in this ranking present two digit drops, the exceptions being the 5-Series (Down only 6%) and the Model S, up 9% YoY, a small feat, considering US buyers are once again infatuated by Big SUV's and leaving big sedans in dealer lots.



(1) - Unlike markets across the pond, the full-size car market in the US is much more diversified, with Chevy Impalas, Malibu's, Chrysler 300, Dodge Chargers, etc, all theoretical adversaries to the Model S, but Tesla's direct competition isn't there, so the Model S is only compared with cars with similar price and concept.


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