Netherlands February 2016

The Hangover, Part 2 - Pure Electrics Revenge Edition

After the historic month of December, the hangover continued in February, with only 465 sales, down 18% regarding January and a mammoth 67% YoY, looking at the comparable month of February 2014, following to the also historic December '13, sales were down 60%, to add to this gloom, we have to go back to 2013 to find a second month of the year with such low level of sales (421 units then), this was still a time when the Prius Plug-In ruled, with 198 units, followed by the Opel Ampera (101) and...The Kangoo ZE (33). No Outlander PHEV, no Tesla...Different times indeed.

The EV Share reflects these bad times, with little more than 1% (1.28%), when 2015 ended with 9.63%, the market share wasn't so low since 2012, when it reached 1.1%...

Looking at the current ranking, both the Tesla Model S and the Nissan Leaf are ahead of the pack, a surprising lead from two 100% electric cars in the Capital of Plug-In Hybrids, something that didn't happened since the Jurassic 2011, when the same Leaf (Best Selling Model that year) and the Smart Fortwo ED were Gold and Silver medals, respectively. 

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Tesla Model S	75
2	Nissan Leaf	67
3	Mercedes C350e   e)	40
3	Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV	39
5	Volkswagen Passat GTE	37

As been said earlier, pure electrics are experiencing a good moment here, for the first time since 2011, they represent the majority of sales (54%), but this doesn't look like a long term trend, behind the top two models there are none other than six plug-in hybrids in the ranking, three of them with less than a year of presence in the market, and all of them possible leaders in the future.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen tops the manufacturers trophy, with 22% share, followed by Nissan (17%) in Second, while Tesla and Volvo (15%) share the Third Spot.

Pl	Netherlands	Feb.	YTD	%	'15Pl
1 2	Tesla Model S Nissan Leaf	75 67	159 150	15 15	8 13
3	Volkswagen Passat GTE	37	142	14	6
4	Volvo V60 Plug-In	25	78	8	3
5 6 7	Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV Volkswagen Golf GTE   e) Mercedes C350e  e)	39 15 7	77 61 47	7 6 5	7 2 5
8	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	13	43	4	1
9 10 10	Mercedes B250e BMW 330e BMW i3	24 33 22	40 33 33	4 3 3	19 25 12
12	Renault Zoe	14	31	3	14
13	Audi A3 e-Tron	8	21	2	4
13	Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia	20	21	2	15
15	Porsche Cayenne Plug-In	3	19	2	10
16 16 16 19 20 21 22 23 24 24 26 26 26 26 26	Volkswagen e-Up! Volkswagen e-Golf   e) BMW X5 40e PHEV Kia Soul EV Mercedes GLE500e Ford C-Max Energi BMW i8 BMW 225xe Active Tourer Porsche Panamera Plug-In Renault Twizy Mercedes S500e Mitsubishi I-Miev Smart Fortwo ED Toyota Prius Plug-In Renault Kangoo ZE	6 5 2 5 4 2 3 1 1 1 1 1	12 12 12 10 7 6 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 1	1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	28 28 11 24 27 9 20 17 21 28 18 30 15 22 25
	TOTAL	465	1.032	100

Source: RAI.nl

Read More

USA February 2016

#1 in 2016?

"Sweet Home Chevy Volt" Edition

The Second Generation Chevy Volt had some big wheels to keep on turning, as the first generation had been three times the Best Selling Plug-In in the US (2010, 2012 & 2013) and the market now it's far more competitive than in those days, but as the Lynyrd Skynyrd song says, The Skies are so blue for the GM product, with Nissan having trouble in marketing the 30kWh Leaf and Tesla more worried in getting the QC right on the Model X, it seems that it will be a matter of time for the Volt to be back at Numero Uno.



In February deliveries of the sleek hatchback were up 63% YoY, to 1.126 units and with the 2017 now nation-wide Volt just arriving, expect for a super-month in March (2.5k?), rivaling the Model S usual headlining-last-quarter-month, which my guess will be at around 2.500 units also.



In April, the Model S deliveries will probably drop to the lowest point of the roller coaster, time when the Volt will finally surpass it and reach the leadership for good.



But enough guessing, looking at February, total sales were above 7.800 units, with numbers up 13% YoY, it looks that the US EV market is slowly picking up speed.

Looking at the models ranking, a word of notice is due to the Ford Fusion Energi, reaching the Bronze medal in February, thanks to 932 units, in a way, this model is the Donald Trump of EV's, despite being criticized for its small range and protruding battery pack, it continues to silence critics with decent and consistent performances (#6 in '13, #5 in '14 and '15 and now #3).



Good performance also by the Hyundai Sonata Plug-In (200 sales), continuing to improve its sales level, the same can't be said of the performance from the Tesla Model X, only 400 units delivered in its seventh month in the market is...Underwhelming. Quality Control issues continue to haunt the Sports-Minivan-SUV deliveries, luckily there hasn't been many complaints from actual drivers, but one questions how much time will pass until the "X" reaches full speed in deliveries and starts to reduce the months (years?) long waiting list.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (22%) gained speed, distancing itself from but Chevrolet and Ford, both at 18% share.

Pl	USA	Feb.	YTD	%
1	Tesla Model S e)	1.475	2.284	16
2	Chevrolet Volt	1.126	2.122	15
3	Nissan Leaf	930	1.685	12
4	Ford Fusion Energi	932	1.513	11
5	Ford C-Max Energi	490	840	6
6	Tesla Model X	400	770	6
7	Audi A3 e-Tron	248	575	4
8	Volkswagen e-Golf	198	526	4
8	BMW X5 40e PHEV	345	526	4
10	Fiat 500e	210	485	3
11	BMW i3	248	430	3
12 13 14 15	Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV Hyundai Sonata Plug-In Chevrolet Spark EV Porsche Cayenne Plug-In	176 200 216 172	402 375 355 318	3 3 3 2
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25	Cadillac ELR Ford Focus Electric Kia Soul EV Smart Fortwo ED Mercedes B250e BMW i8 Por. Panamera Plug-In Mercedes S550e Toyota Prius Plug-In Mitsubishi I-Miev	91 81 60 54 37 54 33 19 6 5	158 147 141 102 95 86 60 38 16 7	1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
	TOTAL	7.806	14.056	100

e) Estimate

Source: insideevs.com; Good Car Bad Car

Tesla vs The Others

As Elon Musk pointed out, the real competition of Tesla aren't other EV's, but the ICE best selling models, so let's look how the Model S stands in its own domestic market (1): 

Pl	Model	2016
1	BMW 5-Series	6.553
2	Mercedes CLS / E-Class	5.490
3	Cadillac CTS	2.474
4	Lexus GS	2.465
5 6	Tesla Model S  e) Audi A6	2.284 1.905

  

With two months into 2016, the Model S already surpassed the Audi A6 and now has the Lexus GS and Cadillac CTS in its sights.

A curious statistic, is that all but two models in this ranking present two digit drops, the exceptions being the 5-Series (Down only 6%) and the Model S, up 9% YoY, a small feat, considering US buyers are once again infatuated by Big SUV's and leaving big sedans in dealer lots.

(1) - Unlike markets across the pond, the full-size car market in the US is much more diversified, with Chevy Impalas, Malibu's, Chrysler 300, Dodge Chargers, etc, all theoretical adversaries to the Model S, but Tesla's direct competition isn't there, so the Model S is only compared with cars with similar price and concept.

Read More