Norway July 2016

Tough life for these two EV's

It Finally Happened

In June there were 2.998 EV's sold, up 17% YoY, with the EV Share slightly down to 28,7%, the strongest reason for this slowdown in sales has to do with buyers holding off for the increased range BEV's, coming in the last quarter of the year.

The recent slowdown in the BEV front (Down 38%) was counterbalanced by the recent PHEV surge (Up 140%), and that is reflected in the EV monthly models ranking, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (504 units) was once again the Monthly Best Seller, the third fourth fifth consecutive time that a plug-in hybrid wins that honor, with the remaining podium positions also belonging to PHEV's: The VW Golf GTE was Second, with 412 units, followed by its larger GTE relative, the Passat, with 294 units.

The VW e-Golf is back to the downward trend, with 279 units registered, its worst performance since 2014. A case of buyers waiting for the upcoming longer-range version, or are the GTE brethrens cannibalizing sales?

PlModelSales  
1Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV504
2Volkswagen Golf GTE412
3Volkswagen Passat GTE294
4Volkswagen e-Golf279
5
Nissan Leaf
237

Looking at the Year-to-date EV ranking, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV has finally risen to the First Place, a first for a PHEV in Norway, displacing the VW e-Golf to Second, after 18 months of leadership(!)

The Tesla Model S (43 units, worst result in 20 months) stumbled two positions to #7 to the benefit of the VW Passat GTE, that climbed the same two positions to #5.

A final reference to the Luxury SUV race, the current leader is the BMW X5 PHEV, #12 with 672 units, followed by the Volvo XC90 PHEV, 171 units behind, with the remaining competition far behind these two, the race should be confined to these two, but the Audi Q7 e-Tron had 68 sales in its first full sales month, if these numbers are confirmed with other good performances in the future, Audi's big wagon-on-stilts SUV might still surprise the aforementioned two.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen (31%) continues in the lead, followed now by Mitsubishi (14%), that displaced Nissan (13%, down 1%) from the Second Place.

PlNorwayJulyYTD%'15Pl
1Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV5043.347134
2Volkswagen e-Golf2793.138121
3Nissan Leaf 2372.829113
4Volkswagen Golf GTE4122.507106
5Volkswagen Passat GTE2941.458620
6
7
Renault Zoe
Tesla Model S
79
43
1.309
1.284
5
5
8
2
8
9
Audi A3 e-Tron
BMW i3
170
98
1.283
1.203
5
5
7
5
10Mercedes B250e104865310
11Kia Soul EV102751311
12
BMW X5 40e
34672319
13Volkswagen e-Up!4466739
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

BMW 225xe Active Tourer
Mercedes C350e
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Volvo XC90 T8 
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
Mercedes GLC350e
Peugeot iOn
BMW 330e
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Citröen C-Zero
Mercedes GLE500e
Peugeot Partner EV
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
Renault Kangoo ZE
Audi Q7 e-Tron
Smart Fortwo ED
BMW i8
Tesla Model X
Ford Focus Electric
Citröen Berlingo EV
Renault Twizy
Mercedes S500e
Others
70
74
51
77
76
59
8
24
22
7
15
7
3

68
1
10
23
1
2



545
539
511
501
482
363
199
158
146
140
120
80
78
73
70
32
31
30
22
11
5
4
6
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
N/A
22
12
N/A
14
N/A
13
N/A
26
16
27
18
24
17
N/A
15
25
N/A
21
23
29
30


TOTAL2.99825.459100



Models breakdown by Fuel Source

The percentage of plug-ins in the general ranking is so significant, that we've decided to make a separate table for the breakdown of models by fuel source:

PlModelSales  
1Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV504
2Volkswagen Golf GTE412
3Skoda Octavia301
4Volkswagen Passat GTE294
5
6
7
8
9
10
Volkswagen Golf ICE
Volkswagen e-Golf
Toyota RAV4
Toyota Yaris
Toyota Auris
Nissan Leaf
281
279
277
266
251
237

With 29% share, the EV's performance in the general ranking is increasingly more relevant, of the 972 units sold by the leader VW Golf in July, only 281, or 29%, didn't had a Plug.

If we split models by fuel source, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was the best selling model, outselling the Golf GTE and the Skoda Octavia (BTW, when will we have a PHEV Octavia, Skoda?), with another PHEV, the VW Passat GTE, in #4, making it three plug-in hybrids in the Top 4 positions.

The remaining two Plug-ins in the Top 10 were BEV's, in #6 we have the VW e-Golf, only two units behind the regular ICE versions of the VW Golf, while in #10 the Nissan Leaf makes itself noticed.

Batteries June 2016 (Updated) w/ Bus batteries ranking draft




The Rise and Rise of BYD 

EV Battery sales are growing 80%YoY, which is even more than the plug-in car market (+/- 50%), something that can be explained by the increasing size of the average EV battery. With the longer range BEV's just around the corner, expect Battery sales to grow even faster than today.

No surprises in the leadership, Panasonic is comfortably above, thanks to the continued success of battery-hungry Tesla, but sales to the VW Group have dropped, now that they are more focused on the less battery-heavy PHEV's. Looking at the rest of the year, expect sales to Toyota to restart in a significant way, thanks to the Prius Prime PHEV. So basically, here it's business as usual for Panasonic;

BYD is on a never-ending growing trend, being the only manufacturer to significantly improve share (17% now vs 14% in December '15 and just 6% in 2014!) in the ranking, all while tripling production YoY, thanks not only to the increase in EV production, but also in the average size of their batteries, with the largest being the 80kWh of the 2016 BYD e6

AESC, the joint venture between NEC and Nissan, has benefited from the recent uptick in Leaf sales, to hang on and maintain its market share (11%), while at the same time recovering the Third Place from LG Chem;

LG Chem, with the Volt II not growing to the expected levels, the Korean hasn't been capable to follow the intense market growth, but there shouldn't be much worries here, as the New Gen batteries for the Chevy Bolt and others should pull them back into the Third Place;

 Samsung has a partnership with BMW and with the German car maker plug-in sales improving, Samsung has also seen sales grow, albeit it wasn't enough to win market share, as many of BMW sales belonged to PHEV's. 

BPP / CATL is the first of a trio of Chinese battery makers in the second half of the ranking, with Wanxiang (SAIC provider) in #9, and Air Lithium (Kandi provider), with the first two experiencing surging sales and beating in six months what they had sold in the whole of 2015.

In a fast growing market, Lithium Energy Japan (GS Yuasa / Mitsubishi) sales actually have dropped, hampered by the sales drop of the Outlander PHEV and lack of new models by the Japanese car maker, having inclusively been surpassed by the third Korean battery maker, SK Group, now #7, thanks to the continued success of the Kia Soul EV and, most importantly, their venture into the Chinese EV market, having been battery providers for some of BAIC all-electric plug-ins;

- A final mention for the #11 E-Power (151) and #12 Tianneng (119), two other Chinese battery makers that help China to obtain 33% of the batteries market, when in the same period last year, they had only 22%. This 11% share increase in only a year is probably one reason why the Chinese government felt confident enough to open the local batteries market to foreign battery manufacturers, as it feels that it will help develop the domestic EV market without killing local battery makers.



PlBattery Makers
 H1 2016 MWh
(H1)   2015
MWh
  %'16% '15
1Panasonic3.088(1.931)4.552
37
38
2
3
BYD
AESC
1.443
930
(461) 1.652
(705) 1.272
17
11
14
11
4
5
6
LG Chem
BPP / CATL
Samsung
623
435
343
(569) 1.432
(139)    397
(294)    504
7
5
4
12
3
4
7SK Group241(N/A)   N/A
3
N/A
8
9
Mitsubishi/GS Yuasa
Wanxiang
236
230
(241)   600
(157)    268
3
3
5
2
10
Air Lithium (Luoyang)
164(N/A)   283
2
2

TOTAL8.49212.289



One of the big (un)known secrets is the electric Buses success in China, while i don't have actual sales numbers, a good reader of EV Sales provided me some numbers of the largest battery providers for electric buses in China:

1. BYD 1.161 MWh

2. CATL 1.099 MWh

3. Guoxuan 483 MWh

If BYD is not a surprise, CATL, or Contemporary Amperex Technology Limited, has such a high output for buses, that together with their car business (435 MWh) with BPP, makes it somewhat of a Dark Horse, as a reader in CleanTechnica once asked me if there could be such a thing in the Chinese Batteries business. It seems we found it...

As for Guoxuan, it is the first time i see them, does anybody has any input on them?

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