Japan June 2013

Mitsu Outlander PHEV practical trunk

Mitsubishi on the ropes Edition 

After two horrible months, the japanese plug-in market started to recover, thanks to a good month of the Nissan Leaf (1.045 units), which contributed greatly for the 1.303 units sold in June, a 41% increase over the 924 of May and a help for the EV share to recover to 0,80%, a 0,03% increase over 2012.

As for Mitsubishi, it still leads the manufacturers ranking with 52% share, but Nissan closed the gap by half and is now just 9% behind the Tokyo-based company, which had another catastrophic month, selling just 158 units.

Pl	Japan	June	YTD	%	Pl '12
1	Nissan Leaf	1.045	5.686	43	2
2	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV		4.307	33	N/A
3	Mitsubishi I-Miev	70	1.046	8	3
4	Mitsubishi Minicab Miev	79	916	7	4
5	Toyota Prius Plug-In e)	100	600	5	1
6	Mitsub. Minicab Miev Truck	9	525	4	N/A
	TOTAL	1.303	13.080	100

e) Estimate

Source: insideevs.com, Manufacturers

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Japan May 2013

Black Mitsu Outlander PHEV

Leaf in Number One Again Edition

Taking profit of Mitsubishi's battery problems, the Nissan Leaf recovered the top spot in Japan, thanks to 708 units sold in May, accounting for the majority of plug-in sales this month, that settled  for a meager 924 units, the worst result since 2011 for the japanese EV market.

By brands, Mitsubishi is number one with 57%, thanks to a diversified range, followed at distance by Nissan with 39%.

Pl	Japan	May	YTD	%	Pl '12
1	Nissan Leaf	708	4.641	39	2
2	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV		4.307	37	N/A
3	Mitsubishi I-Miev	62	976	8	3
4	Mitsubishi Minicab Miev	47	837	7	4
5	Mitsubishi Minicab Miev Truck	7	512	4	N/A
6	Toyota Prius Plug-In e)	100	500	4	1
	TOTAL	924	11.773	100

e) Estimate

Source: evn.blog.eonet.jp, Manufacturers

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Japan All Time Top 5

Nissan Leaf in Nagawa

The Nissan Leaf is a distant leader thanks to a consistent sales rhythm of 10.000/year since it went on sale and the Prius PHEV is profiting from a good 2012 to remain in second place, but the Mitsu Outlander PHEV is proving to be a serious contestant and if demand remains high (+\- 2.000 units/month), it could reach #2 still in 2013.

Pl	Model	Sales (1)
1	Nissan Leaf	25.373
2	Toyota Prius PHEV	12.600
3	Mitsubishi I-Miev	8.047
4	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	4.304
5	Mitsubishi Minicab Miev	3.953

(1) - Updated until April 30th, 2013

Best-Selling models by year:
2010 - Mitsubishi I-Miev (2.542)
2011 - Nissan Leaf (10.310)
2012 - Toyota Prius PHEV (12.300)
2013(1) - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (4.304)

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Japan March 2013

2013 PiP alloys

With a month delay, i can now report on the japanese EV market, in March there were 3.197 plug in sales, down 40% regarding last month, leaving the market share to be under the 1% share at 0,77. 

The responsible for this drop was the off month of the Nissan Leaf, down to 676 units when the month before it had sold 1.455 cars. 

With another good month (1.719 sales), the Outlander Plug-In secures a second monthly win and the #1 post YTD.

Finally, the Prius PHEV career has hit the brakes and dropped to last place.

Pl.	Japan	Mar	YTD	%
1	Mitsu. Outlander Plug-In	1.719	4.304	40
2	Nissan Leaf	676	3.268	31
3	Toyota Prius Plug-In e)	100	1.600	15
4	Mitsubishi I-Miev	358	814	8
5	Mitsubishi Minicab Miev	344	719	7
	TOTALS	3.197	10.705	100

e) - Estimate

Source: Manufacturers, evn.blog.eonet.jp

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Japan February 2013

Some nice alloys for the Outlander PHEV

With a month delay, i can report on the japanese EV market, the second largest in the world and in a upwards trend, in February there were a record 5.428 plug in sales, translating in an also record 1,59% market share, only second to the champion Norway in EV popularity.

The news this month was the rise to #1 of the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV in its only second month in the market, staying just 7 units behind the Nissan Leaf on the YTD count.

In third comes the Prius Plug-in, followed at a distance by the Mitsubishi I-Miev and the Minicab Miev.

By brands, Mitsubishi benefits from the Outlander to top the ranking possibly for the first time since...2010!

Pl.	Japan	Feb	YTD	%
1	Nissan Leaf	1.455	2.592	31
2	Mitsu. Outlander Plug-In	2.079	2.585	31
3	Toyota Prius Plug-In e)	1.200	2.300	28
4	Mitsubishi I-Miev	377	456	5
5	Mitsubishi Minicab Miev	317	375	5
	TOTALS	5.428	8.308	100

e) - Estimate

Source: Manufacturers, evn.blog.eonet.jp

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Japan January 2013

Mitsubishi Outlander Plug In dash 

Despite being the second largest EV market in the world, it is difficult to get regular sales numbers from Japan, but here's an exclusive ranking for January's Plug-In car sales!

We can see that the duel between the Prius Plug In and the Leaf now has a small advantage for the Nissan's car, now benefiting from the improved 2013 model.

But the big news is the arrival of Mitsu's Outlander to the market, in just 16 days it got 506 sales, a whole lot more than its stable mates I-Miev and Minicab did in a complete month and about half of what the top two sold.

With this in mind, February should provide some interesting numbers...

Pl	Japan	Jan	YTD	%	'12Pl
1	Nissan Leaf	1.137	1.137	42	2
2	Toyota Prius Plug-In (e)	900	900	34	1
3	Mitsubishi Outlander Plug-In	506	506	19	N/A
4	Mitsubishi I-Miev	79	79	3	3
5	Mitsubishi Minicab Miev	58	58	2	4
TOTAL		2.680	2.680	100

(e) - Estimate

Source: BSCB, Manufacturers

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Markets Roundup Full Year 2012

Fisker Karma in Monaco

With most of 2012 data in, it's time for a roundup on some EV markets:

- The three countries with highest EV share are Norway (No surprises here) with 3,09%, followed by Estonia (Thanks to Mitsubishi) at 2,35% and finally in third there's the Netherlands with 0,98%;

- The Renault Twizy was #1 in eight countries, hitting a sweet spot in Central and Southern Europe;

- Renault sold some 600 units of the Fluence ZE in Israel, included in the Better Place battery swapping project and at 0,37% share it was not a bad start, but the question is if in 2013 they will resist the black hole that is becoming the Better Place deal;

- Nissan has sold 89 units of the Nissan Leaf in Hong Kong, meaning that Nissan sold more Leaf's there than in the whole of China;

- Where else in the world other than Monaco would the Fisker Karma be a best seller? That's right, the Cadillac Escalade of the  Plug-In market was the second best selling electric vehicle in Monaco, just behind the Renault Twizy. With this in mind, i'm assuming that Tesla will be the best seller this year;

- As proof that the EV market is a fast changing market, Finland had three different leaders in the last three years, starting with the Think City in 2010, followed in '11 by the Citröen C-Zero and the Nissan Leaf last year;

- The I-Miev family has a thing for finding new markets for electric cars and losing them for others in the following years, for example the Mitsubishi I-Miev started the EV market in 2009 in it's home market, being the best selling electric model that year and in 2010, before losing the crown to the Leaf in 2011.  The same thing happened in Germany (#1 in 2010 and 2011, #3 in 2012), Spain (#1 in 2011, #9 in 2012), Switzerland (#1 in 2010 and 2011, #4 in 2012), Monaco (#1 in 2011, #6 in 2012) and Ireland (#1 in 2010, #4 in 2011 and 2012). In 2012 the I-Miev family started to sell cars in new markets like  the Czech Republic (78 units), Iceland (9), Poland (13) and Colombia (28). It remains to be seen in 2013 how many of these will still crown a I-Miev member as best seller...

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My 2013 EV Markets Preview

After making my predictions over the general trends in the EV market and the models that could be gamechangers, and updating it with the latest Roewe and Cadillac offerings, now it's time to preview the behavior of the major markets and which countries could be the surprises of the year:

USA - There's a lot going on here, if we count the same level of sales from the usual suspects (Volt, Prius, Leaf...) at 55K, i'm predicting some extra 15K from the C-Max, 6K from the Fusion and 12K from Tesla. Add that to 3K from other new launches (Accord, Cadillac ELR...) and we easily have more than 90.000 sales in 2013, so i'm counting the US EV market to reach some 90 to 110K units;

Japan - Probably reaching some 23.000 units in 2012, up from 18K in the year before, 2013 will see the arrival of the Mitsubishi Outlander Plug-In Hybrid that might add some 6K sales to a faily stable market, although the I-Miev should struggle to keep sales at their '12 level. So, adding 6 to the current 23K, we have  around 29.000 units for the japanese EV market;

France - The sales level of the french market will depend on the impact of the Renault Zoe and how much will it steal from the current players in the market. So, if assuming that the rest of the market stays stable at 12K and the Zoe collects between 2K to 4K units sold, we have a moderate growth to 14-16.000 EV's;  

Germany - Another market where things could get interesting, although sales will only takeoff in the 4Q after the arrival of the german offerings. Until then sales will grow modestly, with the Zoe animating the market. At some expected 7K sales from foreign brands and adding 2.5K units from the german newcomers (BMW i3, VW e-Up! or Mercedes B-class ED), we'll be looking at around 10.000 units, a good prologue year before the real departure of the german EV market in 2014;

Netherlands - One of the markets where EV's are most successful and where the Opel Ampera is climbing the overall ranking, it's to expect that both the Ampera and the Prius Plug-In will keep on growing their sales, adding 1.000 units each, just like the Tesla Model S, an expected hit here. If the other models on the market also grow another 1.000 cars, we are looking at 9.000 sales, a good result that could keep this market on the forefront of the Plug-In Evolution.

Norway - With a great 3% of the general market, this scandinavian country is considered the epicenter of the electric revolution, thanks in big part to the success of the Nissan Leaf, now a usual name in the best selling rankings. And this year, another pure electric is expected to make a splash here, Norway is just behind the US in orders of Tesla's Model S, so expect it to go from 1.500 to 3.000 cars sold here. Add these to another 1.000 from the successful Prius Plug-In and we have between 7 to 8.500 sales. If the top limit is reached, we'll be talking about a 6% EV share! 

As possible surprises this year, China certainly promises to be one of them, it ended 2012 beating  the alltime record at 848 units and this year it is expected to be flooded with new models (Venucia e30, Springo, BYD Qin...), so it won't be difficult to see the chinese market EV jump from 3.000 to 10.000 sales. Australia is another market expected to grow exponentially thanks to the Holden Volt introduction, sales should grow from a measly 253 sold last year to some 2.000 units, if not more.

All in all, the world EV market will likely grow to some 200.000 units this year, almost doubling sales from the year before. And you the viewers, what do you think?

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Other Markets November 2012

This post highlights some curious facts about other EV markets:

- This year it has been sold more EV's (106.000) than in all previous years together (80.000);

- The markets with smaller or negative growth rates are Denmark (+29%), Japan (+4%) and Portugal (-54%). The portuguese negative growth is justified by the end of the 5.000€ government incentive given to EV's;

- Despite government interest and incentives in this kind of cars, EV's represent just 0,018% of the auto market in China, only in Australia there's a lower market share (0,008%) for electric cars;

- The UK market is fragmented, with the top three makers separated by only 23 units (Renault - 563 units, Nissan - 547, Vauxhall - 540);

- Chevrolet Volt has a whopping 73% share of all electric cars in Canada, with 1.168 units;

- Israel, Hong Kong and Estonia EV market are represented by only one model, respectably the Renault Fluence ZE (Included in the Better Place deal), Nissan Leaf and the Mitsubishi I-Miev (Bought by the Estonian government);

- The Volt family has the top spot in three countries (USA, Netherlands, Canada);

-  Renault's Twizy quadricycle is #1 in six countries (Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Portugal), just like the LCV Kangoo ZE in its home market (France) and the Fluence ZE in Denmark and Ireland;

- The Nissan Leaf is number one in three markets (Norway, Australia, Finland);

- The BYD E6 insures a number one spot in its home market (China);

- Finally, the Prius Plug-In wins at home (Japan) and in Sweden;

- Splitting sales by regional areas, GM dominates the Americas with almost half of the market, just like Toyota does in Asia and Europe is Renault's turf, with a 42% market share, thanks mostly to the Twizy, the best selling vehicle there, where one in four electric vehicles is a Twizy. 

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Making the smartphone connection: The state of automotive navigation in Japan

A guest post from Yoshiki Chubachi, the automotive business development manager for QNX Software Systems in Japan

Yoshiki Chubachi

The market for navigation systems in Japan grew rapidly until 2006, but since 2007 the yearly volume has reached the saturation point, at about 2.9M units. For instance, in 2008, consumers purchased 900k after-market systems, 1.1M dealer-installed systems, and 909k factory-installed systems. In 2010, those numbers had changed slightly: 1.01M after-market systems, 1.03M dealer-installed systems, and 858k factory-installed systems (source: Yano Research Institute).

That said, the market is starting to experience a shift from after-market to factory-installed devices. Automakers and their tier one suppliers are struggling to differentiate their products by implementing value-added features.

To get a feel for current navigation trends in Japan, let’s look at some notable after-market products that shipped in 2011. As you'll see, smartphones are exerting a major influence on this market, both in terms of system design and user features:

Pioneer AVIC-VH09CS — This high-end system combines augmented reality technology with a front-view camera, overlaying your route on a live video of the road. It also implements a collision warning system by measuring the distance of the car ahead. Other features include terrestrial digital TV (full HD and 1seg), DVD video, AM-FM, CD and SD music, iPod connectivity, and music ripping and encoding.

Clarion NX501 — The smartphone world seems to drive navigation trends, and the Clarion NX501 is no exception. It offers a touchscreen UI that supports swipes, flicks, and other finger gestures similar to those found in smartphones and tablets. Suzuki factory-installed systems also use the type of user interface.

Fujitsu-Ten AVN-F01i — This system comes with three bundled iPhone applications: Twitter Drive (combines tweets with location data), Where is My Car (uses augmented reality to show your parking location on the phone screen; great for finding your car in large parking lots); and News Reader (allows the system’s text-to-speech engine to read out news articles). The system connects to the phone through Bluetooth.

Panasonic CN-H500WD — The system also lets you use finger swipes to operate navigation and audio functions, including a scrolling map. It comes with a smartphone application that provides POI search, which is downloaded to the navigation system through Bluetooth.

Mitsubishi NR-MZ50 — This system provides an “OpenInfo” service based on Pioneer’s Smartloop system, which provides traffic data from a Pioneer server. VICS (Vehicle Information and Communication System) is a popular traffic data service in Japan that is similar to the RDS-TMC standard, but its coverage is limited to main highways. The smartphone receives traffic data, derived from anonymous traffic probe information, wherever the VICS service isn't supported. Information from the phone is transmitted to the navigation system through Bluetooth.

Connectivity between navigation systems and smartphones remains an issue in Japan. Conventional cell phones are equipped with the Bluetooth DUN profile, which enables data communication between the nav system and the phone, but unfortunately, some carriers still don’t support this profile. Until they do, lack of connectivity will remain a roadblock.

Nonetheless, using smartphones to deliver applications and the user experience has become a major trend in Japan’s navigation systems. Some automotive tier one suppliers, such as Pioneer, already provide navigation applications on the phone. The QNX CAR 2 application platform, with its mobile connectivity features and auto-centric HTML5 framework, offers an ideal foundation for enabling this approach.

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Brand exposure

QNX has a knack for turning up where I least expect it. Sometimes, I'm even surprised by how our technology partners use it — and I head up strategic alliances at QNX Software Systems. In this case, at least, I can claim ignorance based on distance.

Last week, Tokyo Weekender published a story on Freescale Japan from the perspective of David Uze, the company’s president. Anyone who has had the pleasure of meeting David knows he’s super passionate about his mission. And arguably, it must be a challenging one, for the market in Japan has a long history of being dominated by national silicon suppliers. But, from an automotive perspective, recent consolidations of some of those suppliers, along with the trend towards standardized architectures, have opened the door for companies like Freescale.

The article talks about Freescale’s planned expansion in Japan, recovery from the earthquake, the advantages of being a global company, and the Freescale Cup, a robotics competition for university students that will be launched in Japan next year.

This, for me, is David’s most interesting comment:

“The reason I believe we must focus on Japan is because it is the most macro-economically focused culture in the world. Japan is the only country I know of where companies routinely create 50 -year plans to ensure they are a strong economic force in the long term.”

I find this incredible, especially if it applies to high-tech companies. Most would struggle with a concise 5-year plan, let alone 50!

But back to QNX. If you look at the article's opening photo (see below), you'll a car emblazoned with the logos of several Freescale suppliers, including a QNX logo that appears right below the Freescale wordmark. The QNX logo also appears in another photo, on a banner hanging above the head of Freescale CEO Rich Breyers, as he addresses the crowd at an FTF event.

Talk about international brand exposure! Thanks, David!

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QNX Auto Summit Japan 2011 – ‘Automotive at the speed of Mobility’

The QNX Auto Summit Japan 2011 will be starting soon, here in Nagoya, Japan.  We’re expecting a good crowd of Tier 1s and OEMs from across Japan.  QNX technology is being showcased in a BMW X5 and Audi A8 - as seen below - as well as in many of our partner demos.  The theme of the event is ‘Automotive at the speed of Mobility’!  Industry speakers will focus on how the worlds of automotive and mobility are converging at a break-neck speed, and what Tier 1s and OEMs will need to know to design for these next-generation systems.  Should be interesting!  Stay tuned for more.

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Countdown to the Auto Summit Japan

I’m here at the QNX Auto Summit Japan 2011  in Nagoya, Japan and really energized about our event!  We’re being supported by some of our key partners including ARM, Redbend, Freescale, A&W, Elektrobit, Texas Instruments, Renesas and TCS.  

There’s presentations, amazing car demos based on QNX and serious networking planned!  Looking forward to meeting many of the Japanese Tier 1s and OEMs.  More to come once the event starts. 

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