World Top 20 December 2015 Special Edition (Updated)

Tesla Model X: The Supermodel fat sister?

Models - Tesla Model S #1!

Thanks to another outstanding performance of the chinese and european market, an historic monthly record was set, with more than 86.000 plug-ins sold last month, which not only represents the fourth consecutive record month, but also a 51% increase over November, and a significant 134%(!) increase regarding the same month last year, pulling the YTD sales to 548k units.

The Tesla Model S was once again the Star of the Month, delivering 8.092 units (Best performance ever for a single model), allowing it be once again the Best Seller of the Month (For the fourth time this year), winning for the first time the Best Seller Model trophy, a first for Tesla.

The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV also had an outstanding month, beating its December '13 record by a significant margin (7.058 vs 6.491), almost reaching the #2 Nissan Leaf.

Looking elsewhere (China), besides the established #4 BYD Qin, the Kandi Panda EV cemented its Sixth Spot (Up 20 positions YoY), while the BYD Tang (5.503 units, #3 in December) joined the Top 10 at #8, winning the 2015 Rookie Of The Year award and looking poised to be a strong contender for the Best Seller status in 2016.

As this is a Full Year special edition, we dig a little deeper, into the Top 20, where we can see six more chinese models (#11 BAIC E-Series, #12 Zotye Cloud EV, #15 Roewe 550 PHEV, #16 JAC i EV, #19 Kandi K10 EV and #20 Chery eQ), making it nine models coming from China in the Top 20, when last year there were six.

Good year also for EV's coming from Germany, with all of them improving their positions regarding last year, with special mention to the VW Golf GTE and Audi A3 e-Tron, both up 23 positions to #10 and #14, respectively. 

On the other side, some models dropped significantly, if the Chevy Volt losing five positions to #9 (New Generation) or the Kandi K10 EV losing nine positions to #19 (Production priority for the K11), have justifiable reasons, the Ford Energi products drop in the ranking is hardly justifiable...

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, BEV's won the race with 60%, although losing 2% share regarding 2014.

Pl	WORLD	Dec.	YTD	%	'14Pl
1	Tesla Model S	8.082	50.366	9	3
2	Nissan Leaf	3.637	43.870	8	1
3	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	7.058	43.259	8	2
4 5 6 7	BYD Qin BMW i3 Kandi K11 Panda EV Renault Zoe	1.512 3.409 4.701 3.158	31.898 24.083 20.390 18.846	6 4 4 3	7 6 26 9
8 9 10	BYD Tang Chevrolet Volt (1) Volkswagen Golf GTE	5.503 2.398 3.191	18.375 17.508 17.282	3 3 3	N/A 4 33
11 12	BAIC E-Series EV Zotye Z100 / Cloud EV	1.696 2.582	16.488 15.467	3 3	16 N/A
13	Volkswagen e-Golf	1.286	15.356	3	21
14 15 16 17 18 19 20	Audi A3 e-Tron Roewe 550 PHEV JAC i EV Ford Fusion Energi Ford C-Max Energi Kandi K10 EV e) Kia Soul EV	1.578 1.611 1.581 1.067 1.127 1.000 1.225	11.962 10.711 10.420 9.894 9.643 7.665 7.510	2 2 2 2 2 1 1	37 34 35 9 11 10 27
	TOTAL	86.434	548.210

Manufacturers -  Nissan Falls to #4

This was the sixth seventh eighth consecutive month that BYD won the Best Selling Manufacturer title, every time with a record month (Now at 10.925 units), the chinese carmaker won its first Manufacturers title (A first for a chinese carmaker), although it failed to beat the 2014 full year sales record of Nissan (63.313 units). Better luck in 2016...

Nissan took a big tumble in the last month of the year, dropping two positions and ending the year in Fourth, with less than half of the Share won in the previous year (9% now vs 20% in '14), to the benefit of #2 Tesla and #3 Mitsubishi, both ending the year with record performances and the american brand back to the runner-up position for the first time since 2010, at the time it had delivered 704 Roadsters... 

In the lower end of the Top 10 manufacturers ranking, Kandi climbed one position, ending the year in #7, changing positions with Renault, with Ford resisting in #10 to the Chevrolet attempt to reach a Top 10 position.

As this is a Full Year edition, we dig a littler deeper, into the Top 20, where we see Chevrolet in an unusually low #11, and three newcomers, the #14 Audi, #15 SAIC Roewe and #16 Mercedes, accentuating the good performance of German and Chinese brands in 2015, with the share of the first country growing from 11% in 2014 to 20% now and the second from 17% to 32%.

Pl	WORLD	Dec.	YTD	%	'14Pl
1	BYD	10.925	61.726	11	7
2	Tesla	8.275	50.574	9	3
3	Mitsubishi	7.498	48.204	9	2
4	Nissan	3.960	47.671	9	1
5 6 7	Volkswagen BMW Kandi e)	7.024 6.029 6.201	40.148 33.412 28.055	8 6 5	11 9 10
8	Renault	4.234	27.282	5	8
9	Zotye	4.297	24.516	4	13
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20	Ford Chevrolet BAIC Chery Audi SAIC Roewe Mercedes JAC Volvo Kia Porsche	2.294 2.551 1.747 2.792 1.596 1.730 2.133 1.581 3.902 1.341 687	21.326 20.233 17.040 14.162 12.123 11.123 10.870 10.420 10.161 7.626 6.532	4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1	5 4 15 12 25 22 24 23 16 20 17

(1) - Includes Chevrolet Volt I and II, Holden Volt, Opel and Vauxhall Ampera;

e) Estimate

Class Best Sellers

Looking at the EV Market with traditional segmentation, let's see who are the Best-Sellers in each Segment:

* Micro-Car - Kandi K10 EV (Once again);

* A-Segment - Kandi K11 Panda EV (Surprise Of The Year);

* B-Segment - BMW i3 (Once again beating the Renault Zoe);

* C-Segment - Nissan Leaf (Third consecutive trophy);

* D-Segment - Ford Fusion Energi (Winner for the last time?);

* E/F-Segment - Tesla Model S (As ever);

* SUV - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (Third time in a row, will the BYD Tang allow a fourth time?);

* MPV - Ford C-Max Energi (As ever);

* Pick-Up - Mitsubishi Minicab Miev (As ever);

* Sports Car - BMW i8 (Winner for the second time, with no real competition in sight).

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Europe December 2015

Historic Month Edition

Last December had an historic result, with more than 33.000 units sold in Europe, 72% more than the previous all-time high reached in the previous month, with total YTD sales ending at 193.000 units, almost doubling the 100k registered in 2014 and the EV Share finally surpassing the 1% barrier, with 1.25% Share.

A perfect storm motivated this historic result, with incentive changes derived sales rushes in The Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden, pushing numbers artificially up, so expect an early 2016 in slow mode...  

With such unusual numbers, the monthly ranking surged numbers leading to several all-time records:

- The Outlander PHEV shattered its previous sales record (5.003 in December '13), registering 6.475 units, a new monthly record for a single model in Europe;

- The Golf GTE (3.191) and Passat GTE (2.357) have beaten their personal bests, with the larger VW reaching #5 and appearing for the first time in the Top 5, probably the first of many...

- The Tesla Model S (3.124) and Renault Zoe (3.114) not only have beaten their pb, but have also beaten the previous monthly sales record for a pure electric car, with the american model winning the record by just 10 units;

- The BMW i3 (1.718 units), Mercedes C350e (1.624), Audi A3 e-Tron (1.514), BMW X5 PHEV (838) and Porsche Cayenne Plug-In (381) all reached new record highs, underlining the increasing importance of german models (And PHEV's) in the ranking;

- Two of the models where the numbers have been more artificially inflated with the Dutch sales rush were the Volvo XC90 PHEV (1.633 units, new record) and Ford C-Max Energi (580, ditto), which have made more than 90% of their european sales in that country, with the american model selling more in the Netherlands (580) than in its home market (579);

- Even the veteran Renault Kangoo ZE has beaten its sales record, registering 742 units and thus beating a three year old record (626 units in November 2012), pushing the LCV monthly record further higher.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	6.475
2	VW Golf GTE	3.191
3	Tesla Model S	3.124
4	Renault Zoe	3.114
5	VW Passat GTE	2.357

Looking at the YTD ranking, the Top Two stayed the same, with the Outlander PHEV renewing its 2014 Best Seller title, while the Renault Zoe won its first Best Selling BEV title, recovering the Second Place won in 2013.

The Third position had a new owner in the last month of the year, with the Nissan Leaf tumbling two positions to #5, with the Bronze medal going to the VW Golf GTE and the #4 once again going to the Tesla Model S.

Another model dropping in the ranking was the VW e-Golf, down two positions to #8, to the benefit of the BMW i3, ending the year in #6, up two positions regarding November.

Below the Top 10 there is also plenty of action: The Mercedes C350e climbs one position to end 2015 in #11, the rising star Volkswagen Passat GTE jumped five more positions, ending in #12, will this be the 2016 D-Segment/midsize class Best Seller?

The Volvo XC90 T8 Plug-In also jumped five positions in the ranking, to #18, while the BMW X5 40e Plug-In also climbed three positions to #22. With these two models selling in such large quantities, it will be hard fot the Porsche Cayenne Plug-In to keep the Best Selling Luxury SUV title this year.

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (18% share, down 1%) won its first european EV Manufacturers Title, followed by Mitsubishi (16%) in Second and Renault in Third, with 13%, while last year medalist Nissan ended in #4, with 10%, down 1% share regarding last November and down 8% YoY.

Below, you will find the 2015 Trophy Room:

Best Selling PHEV & SUV: Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, 31.340 units. The japanese model won for the third consecutive year these two titles, with its sales up 63% YoY and no direct competition, how high will Mitsu's SUV reach in 2016?

Best Selling BEV & Small Car: Renault Zoe, 18.670 units. Finally removing the Nissan Leaf from the BEV leadership, the Zoe saw its sales grow 66% and on top of that, won for the third consecutive time the Best Selling Small Car title;

Rookie Of The Year: Mercedes C350e, 5.069 units. The german model follows on another teutonic car, the VW e-Golf (3.328 units in '14), but had to sweat in the end to keep the VW Passat GTE (4.685) at bay. If the year had 13 months, we might be telling a different story...

Best Selling LCV: Renault Kangoo ZE, 4.328 units. Europe's favorite electric LCV since it appeared in 2011, the french van had a much needed sales push in the second half of the year to win a comfortable lead over the increasingly menacing Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia twins (3.049 units), to have an idea on how close they were, in August the two vans were separated by just 100 units.

Pl	Europe	Dec.	2015	%	'14Pl
1	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	6.475	31.340	16	1
2	Renault Zoe	3.114	18.670	10	3
3	Volkswagen Golf GTE	3.191	17.282	9	22
4	Tesla Model S	3.124	16.455	9	4
5	Nissan Leaf	839	15.515	8	2
6	BMW i3	1.718	11.820	6	5
7	Audi A3 e-Tron	1.514	11.711	6	19
8	Volkswagen e-Golf	677	11.124	6	9
9 10 11	Volvo V60 Plug-In Kia Soul EV Mercedes C350e	1.906 975 1.624	6.952 5.800 5.069	4 3 3	7 23 N/A
12	Volkswagen Passat GTE	2.357	4.686	2	N/A
13	Renault Kangoo ZE	742	4.328	2	8
14	Porsche Cayenne Plug-In	381	3.350	2	28
15 16 17 18 19	Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia Volkswagen e-Up! Mercedes B-Class ED Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV Renault Twizy	270 182 182 1.633 118	3.049 2.769 2.760 2.653 1.917	2 1 1 1 1	12 6 29 N/A 11
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30	BMW i8 Smart Fortwo ED BMW X5 40e PHEV Peugeot iOn Ford C-Max Energi Bolloré Blue Car Citröen C-Zero Mercedes S500e Mitsubishi I-Miev Toyota Prius Plug-In Porsche Panamera Plug-In	115 56 838  189 538 83 41 108 23 39 46	2.027 2.013 1.649 1.566 1.230 1.166 1.118 807 708 704 606	1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0	15 10 N/A 21 N/A 13 20 31 17 14 18
	TOTAL	33.717	193.439	100

BEV

PHEV

EV's in the Manufacturers sales mix

An interesting stat is to see how much share EV's represent in each manufacturers sales mix, below you will find the Top 3 with highest share, with the exception of Tesla, for obvious reasons:

1. Mitsubishi (24%)

2. Porsche (6%)

3. Volvo and Nissan (3%)

In all other manufacturers, EV's represent less than 3% of their sales mix.

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Poland December 2015

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV likely #1

270 units were sold in 2015, with sales up 85% regarding the previous year, with the EV Share growing to 0.08%, a small but significant increase over the 0.04% share of 2014.

Looking at the models ranking, the Mitsu Outlander PHEV (Most likely) dethroned the now second placed BMW i3 from the Best Seller Status, being the second model from the japanese brand to win the award, after the I-Miev had won it in 2011, with 22 units.

The Nissan Leaf secured the last seat on the podium, with 24 units, repeating the 2014 position, while the Tesla Model S ended the year at #4, with a record 21 units.

Looking at the Manufacturers ranking, Mitsubishi won its second trophy (First was in 2011), with 48% of the market, BMW ended in #2, with 31% share, while in Third we have Nissan, with 12%.

Pl	Poland	Dec.	YTD	%	'14Pl
1 2 3	Mitsu. Outlander PHEV e) BMW i3 Nissan Leaf	10 8 2	129 67 24	48 25 9	2 1 3
4 5	Tesla Model S BMW i8	1 1	21 14	8 5	6 5
5 6 7 8 8 8	Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia Renault Twizy Audi A3 e-Tron Porsche 918 Porsche Cayenne Plug-In Porsche Panamera Plug-In		7 3 2 1 1 1	3 1 1 0 0 0	N/A 9 7  N/A  N/A  N/A
	TOTAL	22	270	100

Source: http://carmarket.com.pl;

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Technology Focus - Super capacitors for Automotive applications

I came across some very interesting new technology recently - specifically, the use of super-capacitors in automotive technology to solve a relatively simple problem - it is a good example of how innovative technology can find a place in day to day use, once the technology becomes cheap enough!

I encountered  vehicle start assistance devices that employ super-capacitors! but first of all - what is a super-capacitor! they are also known as ultra-capacitors but basically, they are the same as any other capacitor - an electrical energy storage device that stores this energy in a dielectric field between two electrical ‘plates’. In function, similar to a battery, the difference being that a battery uses electro chemical storage. The super-capacitor however has a much greater energy storage capacity when compared to traditional types of capacitor - this greater capacity has led to super-capacitors being employed in some fields where a traditional battery may have been used, but where they can provide a specific set of advantages over and above.

Battery and Super(or Ultra) capacitor comparison (www.maxwell.com)

Super-capacitors, like many other technical innovations, were developed for military applications and they have several benefits - they have a much lower sensitivity to temperature and can actually still perform very well at very low temperatures (-40 degrees Celsius). They also have excellent performance with respect to power flow density - this means they can accept repeated high capacity charging and discharging and this is a clear advantage when compared to a chemical battery (which requires a chemical reaction to take place during the energy conversion process, this takes a finite length of time thus increasing the response time to a sudden power demand). Another advantage is the life cycle - even under harsh charging and discharging duty cycles, super-capacitors maintain their performance and their expected life is much longer than a chemical battery for the same operating conditions - 10 years is expected as a minimum!

Super caps and batteries compared (www.koldban.com)

These devices are already in use in the automotive technology domain - in Formula 1 - the super-capacitor is ideal as a storage device for electrical energy from KERS and HERS energy recovery units. The high power flow density is ideal for this application as a replacement for the battery, or as a parallel device, in order to manage the complex energy flow and storage requirements during a race.

F1 KERS system layout that uses super-caps for energy storage (pre-2014 regulations system shown)

After some internet research I also found another interesting development for super-caps - vehicle flat battery assistance, also known as jump starting! I found some applications where super-caps have been employed for this - either as 'jump start' packs, or as units permanently installed on the vehicle alongside the chemical battery. In particular, commercial vehicles operating in extreme conditions at low temperature - Ice road truckers for example. In this domain they are ideal as the potential cost of downtime is very high for these vehicles. The additional weight and cost of a second storage device in addition to the battery is insignificant on a large truck or earthmover, especially when compared to the risk of not being able to start the vehicle at very low temperatures.

Super capacitor engine start module for permanent installation (www.maxwell.com)

Super-capacitors are ideal for mobile jump starting (as a jump start pack) as they require much less maintenance when compared to the use of a chemical battery. They are ideally suited for where a lot of energy is required in a short time i.e. to crank the engine, they can be charged quickly for use (seconds or minutes), hence the pack does not have to be maintained on charge when not in use. 

Mobile engine start assist pack employing super capacitors (www.koldban.com)

However, if the super-capacitors are combined in a jump start package, along with some clever electronics - it is actually possible to charge the super caps from any available low voltage source -  but how is this possible? well, the clever electronics is actually a DC-DC converter - which is a device capable of transferring electrical power at different voltages levels (input compared to output). These devices are already in use on certain vehicles, specifically those equipped with start-stop engine technology – the reason is that during  an engine start , on a vehicle equipped with a traditional style electric starter motor, the starting current draw is sufficient to cause a 'dip' in the vehicle system voltage. Some systems are sensitive to this and may cause the action of a start/stop system to be more obvious to the driver. To avoid this, these electrical systems are connected to a DC-DC power supply system, which maintains a constant voltage and power level to avoid any perceivable response to voltage fluctuation for driver evident systems like HVAC, entertainment and driver information.

DC-DC converter as part of the stop/start system components (www.bosch.com)

Super-capacitors have a higher energy flow density but not a high energy storage capacity. So, it is possible to charge the capacitors with a relatively small power source, the DC converter acts like an electrical transformer to step up the voltage to charge the capacitors with sufficient energy for a single start operation. This is where the capacitors win over a battery due to their power delivery capability. Another interesting development is that using this power transform capability - the capacitors could actually be charged from the dead battery itself - as long as it has some voltage and power capacity. This seems difficult to comprehend but you should remember that the normal failure mode of a chemical battery involves its ability to deliver high power for starting - it is less often the case that the battery cannot deliver any power, even a small amount over a longer period of time, so this fact can be utilised for charging the capacitors for a start assistance situation.

The question now is, what does a package as mentioned above look like? I have been lucky enough to get access to the very latest device that incorporates all the features above - it is sold in the UK by Sealey (www.sealey.co.uk) who have an exclusive licence to sell the device with the manufacturer. The device is sold as a 'battery less' jump start pack - it is small and light when compared to a battery based device. It needs no maintenance and charges from the dead battery, or from another vehicle, or via USB. It can also be used with the vehicle battery open circuit, for situations where the battery is completely dead!

Batteryless jump start pack (www.sealey.co.uk)

Sealey electrostart charging from the 'dead' battery (www.autoelex.co.uk)

In service, it works well, the package is aimed at passenger car users and can supply about 300 amps, this is more than enough power and the device also includes a diesel glow plug support mode to allow pre-heating time.

Summary

My personal view is that this technology will definitely been seen more and more in Automotive applications. Modern vehicles have complex energy flow requirements, and increasing electrification will mean that an electro chemical energy storage device alone, may not fulfil all the technical requirements. So, my opinion is, that to support all the energy storage requirements and consumers in forthcoming vehicle platforms, a balance of energy storage technologies will be required – including traditional style wet batteries, advanced batteries with new chemistries, capacitors and even mechanical storage (hydraulic, pneumatic, flywheel).

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Iceland December 2015

VW e-Golf #1 (Or is it?)

The Icelandic EV market ended the year with over 400 new EV's on the road, twice as much as it did in 2014, with the EV Share (2,93%) at record levels, the fourth highest in the world.

Looking at the models ranking, there aren't yet definitive numbers from the e-Golf, but it looks that the German EV has surpassed the previous leader Nissan Leaf by...One unit.

If this is the case, it is one more reason to call this market "Little Norway", as besides the high market share of EV's and clean electricity both countries have, it will the only two markets where the e-Golf is the sales leader...

Looking at the remaining models, in Third we have the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, with the Kia Soul EV ending in a brilliant #4.

In the manufacturers ranking, it seems Volkswagen (32%) inherited Nissan's (25%) throne, with the Third Place remaining in the good hands of Mitsubishi (11%).

The BEV / PHEV breakdown, plug-in hybrids have grown significantly their share to 36%, up from 18% in 2014, beating the 2013 record of 26%.

For 2016, the race for Number One will continue between the top two, with the Kia Soul EV possibly getting in the way. As for a forecast for the total sales number, i would go with 600-800 units.

Pl	Iceland	Dec.	YTD	%	'14Pl
1 2	Volkswagen e-Golf e) Nissan Leaf	4 4	94 93	23 23	N/A 1
3 4	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Kia Soul EV	3 1	47 38	11 9	2 9
5 6	Audi A3 e-Tron Porsche Cayenne Plug-In	1 5	31 30	8 7	N/A N/A
7 8	Volkswagen Golf GTE Tesla Model S	6	27 19	7 5	N/A 4
9 10	Volkswagen e-Up! Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia		10 9	2 2	6 3
11	Toyota Prius Plug-In	2	6	1	9
12 13 13 13 13 13	Mercedes C350e BMW i3 Chevrolet Volt Opel Ampera Mercedes S500e Mitsubishi I-Miev	1	2 1 1 1 1 1	0 0 0 0 0 0	N/A N/A 6 9 N/A N/A
	TOTAL	27	411	100

Source: us.is

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Czech Republic December 2015

Stormtrooper BMW i3 in Prague

BMW i3 Wins #1

The EV Market in Czech Republic has finally awaken, with 419 units sold this year, more than all previous years combined, pulling the EV Share to a respectable 0.18%, making this Year One for plug-ins in this market.

Looking at the models ranking, the BMW i3 ended the year in great share, registering 15 units, a personal best for the small hot hatch, and revalidating last year Best Seller title.

Teslas are a surprise here, reaching the runner-up position, followed by the VW e-Up! and Nissan Leaf.

Good performance by the #5 VW e-Golf, registering 33 units, for once leaving far behind its plug-in hybrid twin, the Golf GTE, which has only registered one unit...

In the brands ranking, BMW (27%) repeated its 2014 title, winning the laurels of believing in this market when everyone had given up up on it (2014). 

Volkswagen ended in Second, with 22% Share, followed by Nissan, with 16%.

An interesting stat that has been repeating in other markets is the fact that the only two regular hybrids that have outsold EV's are the Toyota Auris Hybrid and Yaris Hybrid, the same happens here and it makes you wonder how much would those two models sell if they had a plug...

Looking into 2016, i think numbers will continue to grow fast, maybe reaching 800 units/year, with the BMW i3 continuing to rule supreme, despite VAG efforts to reach it.

Pl	Czech Republic	Dec.	YTD	%	'14Pl
1 2	BMW i3 Tesla Model S e)	15 3	94 61	22 15	1 N/A
3 4	Volkswagen e-Up! Nissan Leaf	3	58 52	14 12	N/A  N/A
5	Volkswagen e-Golf		33	8	N/A
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 15 16 16 16 19 19 19 19	Audi A3 e-Tron BMW i8 Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Kia Soul EV Smart Fortwo ED Volvo V60 Plug-In Mercedes S500e e) Mercedes B-Class ED Mercedes C350e e) Porsche Cayenne Plug-In Porsche 918 BMW X5 40e Plug-in Porsche Panamera Plug-In Peugeot iOn Peugeot Partner EV Volkswagen Golf GTE	1 7 2 1 2 1 1	28 19 16 14 10 8 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1	7 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	N/A 2  N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A N/A  N/A  N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TOTAL		35	419	100

Source: sda-cia.cz

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