Markets Roundup October 2014

Automotive

The Fastest Growing markets and the Declining Ones (By EV Share)

Here are the Top 5 fastest growing EV Markets in the World regarding EV Share

1. New Zealand - It is growing from almost 0% (0,007% in fact), to 0,23% and 197 units (Until September), a stratospheric growth of 3.310%(!);

2. China - The One Market everyone is talking about, twelve months ago this huge market had some 15.500 EV's sold YTD and 0,08% Share, now we are reaching 50.000 units and 0,35% Share, a 440% growth and easily the fastest growing EV market by volume; 

3. Ireland - Another sudden awakening from a deep sleep, growing 337% from 0,08% last year to 0,26% now, selling almost as much in a year (250 units in '14) as it had in the previous four (304 units);

4. UK - The market that initially many (Nissan, for example...) had hoped it would lead EV sales in Europe, is finally coming to its own potential, it has grown almost three times (287%) in Share regarding last year (0,46% vs 0,16%), with sales growing some 6.000 units to 10.000 a year, becoming the fastest growing European Market by volume;

5. Iceland - This small market never fails to surprise us, before 2012 there weren't any significant  sales of electric cars here, then that year, 18 units were sold, performing a 0,21% share, in 2013 sales surged to 72 units and 0,94% share, and right now sales are at 162 (With two months to go) and the EV Share is in a world-leading 2,50%, if this trend goes on, Reykjavik might dethrone Oslo as the EV-Capital of the World in a couple of years...


And here are the only Top 5 declining EV Markets in the World regarding EV Share

1. Israel - The proof that artificial demand is short lived, the Israeli EV market evaporated in the air with the end of the Better Place deal, going from 1.068 units and 0,22% last year, to just 5 EV's and 0,002% share;

2. Netherlands -  Due to fiscal changes, this was artificially inflated EV market last year, with sales jumping from some 6.000 units in 2012 (and 1,10% EV Share) , to an incredible 23.000 the next year, pulling the EV Share to an amazing 5,55%. Without that injection of sales, this year sales are down, just like the EV Share, now at 3,90%, a 42% drop but still way above the 2012 result; 

3. Australia - Plug-ins are finding a hostile environment here, with slow sales that this year have been even slower than usual, with the EV Share going down from 0,027% to 0,021%. Will the incoming Tesla and BMW i cars do something to change this?

4. Hong Kong - The answer to the question above may be in this market, in the beggining of the year, the Hong Kong EV market was in the doldrums, selling in single digits, but in the last three months, with the arrival of Tesla and the i-brandes BMW's, sales have surged, with October registering an all-time record of 90 units and the EV Share almost leveling (0,37%) with last year result of 0,39%;

5. Spain - Sales were also on the downside here during the first half of the year, but the second semester brought the three best sales months of the year and now it looks that the EV Share will recover the slight delay it has regarding last year (0,163 in '14 vs 0,176% in '13).

BMW i8 Real Competition

If Elon Musk is right by saying that the real competition of the Tesla Model S isn't other plug-ins, but the ICE BMW 5-Series, Merc E-Class, Audi A6 among others, then the true competition for the BMW i8 aren't other EV's, because it has no real competitors there (Only the ELR can be considered as such), but other ICE six-figured sports cars, and in that category we have the undisputed leader of them all for year and years, the Porsche 911.

Can the i8 even so tickle the 911 on the sales front?

Let's see how they compared in October on some markets:

USA

i8 - 204 sales;
911 - 974;

Netherlands

i8 - 14
911 - 10

Spain

i8 - 4
911 - 14

Germany

i8 - 75
911 - 541



 







Trends in the G8 

In the Top Markets, there were a few surprises, some good (UK and China continue to trail the best expectations), others not so good (The US demand is softening).

The EV Shares continue to grow in general, with China now at 0,35% vs 0,33% last month, and the UK at 0,46% vs 0,42% the month before, but Japan is also on positive numbers, reaching closer and closer to the 1% barrier (It's now at 0,98%).

Looking at the monthly models ranking of each country, the Nissan Leaf was Best Seller in Norway, Japan and the US, while the Outlander PHEV, took the UK title from Nissan (A shift of consumers taste?), adding it to the Dutch market trophy. The Smart was again Best Seller in Germany (What's up with the i3 and e-Golf?), while the Zoe (Or is it i-Zoe?) is back to form in France.

Finally, in China the ever-improving BYD Qin has beaten the Kandi EV.


Questions for November

1 - Will Tesla surprise us with record numbers? In which market(s)?

2 - Who will be #1 in Norway? And in Germany?

3 - Will the e-Golf finally start to collect #1's?

Automotive